Coronavirus Pandemic – The Second Wave in the UK has been Deadlier

Even before the emergence of the UK's variant strain, the massive surge in cases and deaths from the second wave was tormenting the country. 

Now, the faster and deadlier pace of transmission of the new strain has forced parts of the country back into lockdown. Of course, if the current vaccines from Pfizer and Moderna are effective against the new strain, it would be welcome news for the UK and other countries as the public health experts suspect that the new strain has already been incubating elsewhere. 

After an extended remission in the summer, a renewed surge hit the UK in the fall. Still, it promptly tapered in late November, allowing public health professionals to breathe a sigh of relief. Unfortunately, it was extremely short-lived. The above graph shows how vicious the December resurgence has been. The daily cases averaged a mere 4K in September, rocketing to 18K in October, and 23K thus far in December. The 7-day moving average trendline confirms the massive surge.

After the initial breakout was brought under control in early summer, the UK's daily death toll tapered to single digits, only to return fiercely in the fall, and steadily rising ever since. To put the horror of the daily death toll, let's look at the monthly averages: 21 in September, rising to 142 in October, tripling to 396 in November, and escalating further to 461 thus far in December. The most recent trend has been more horrific, as the daily tolls have consistently exceeded the 500-mark. Today (12/23), the UK registered a heart-breaking toll of 744.

Since Italy has also been hard-hit by the second wave, it offers an excellent comparative platform. Obviously, due to the very similar outbreaks, the data points demonstrate collinearity, resulting in high r-squared values. However, the above trendlines also emphasize how the UK's cases and deaths have lately been eclipsing Italy's. Needless to say, if the new strain impacts en masse, the slope will exponentiate.  

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The UK is now third on the European chart with over 2M cases and 69K deaths. Though its positivity rate has remained low, its death rate has been ticking up.

To prevent another Wuhan, it should temporarily close down all of its international passenger airports. 

Stay safe!

Data Sources:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic_in_the_United_Kingdom

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic_in_Italy

-Sid Som

homequant@gmail.com

Coronavirus Pandemic – How the US Reached 300K Death Toll

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At the outset of the onslaught, when the White House Task Force projected a high death toll of 65K, the people worldwide woke up in fear and awe. Fast forward nine months: Yesterday, the widely-followed Johns Hopkins' Coronavirus Resource site flashed that the pandemic-related confirmed death toll in the US had crossed 300K. 

Of course, we have much to cheer on today as a couple of vaccines are ready (or being readied) for mass distribution, starting with the population's high-risk segments.

Source: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

 

Unfortunately, the actual death toll eclipsed the dire predictions in no time, hitting 100K on May 22, i.e., within three months from the first fatality, forcing the public health researchers to revert to the drawing board to tweak their vastly-flawed models that under-predicted, to say the least. New York and New Jersey collectively contributed roughly 43% of the overall death toll.

  

Source: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

The rate of growth in the death toll slightly eased while reaching 200K on September 15, thanks to the newly-approved treatment drugs like Gilead's Remdesivir and Regeneron's Regn-Cov2, replacing the malaria drug Hydrochloroqueen that was initially used by many hospitals to treat Covid patients. During this phase, while the Northeast had eased, the Sunbelt caught on with a fury.

Source: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

The above graphs demonstrate how the death rate lately has been accelerating, with a backward-bending tilt. Like the way we reached the first 100K deaths in just three months, we achieved the same distinction during the recent phase as we reached the 300K mark, despite all of the advancements in treatments and logistics.   

Now that the vaccines are here, hopefully the next milestone will be unremarkable.

Stay safe!

Data Sources:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic_in_the_United_States

-Sid Som

homequant@gmail.com

Coronavirus Pandemic – The Second Wave in Germany Worsens by the Day

While the initial outbreak in Germany was not as dreadful as the other hardest-hit countries in Europe, such as Italy, France, Spain, or the UK, the ongoing second wave has been awful, both in terms of the number of cases and death tolls. 

During the mid-summer month of July, when the pandemic was in remission, the daily cases averaged a meager 466. With the advent of fall, the pandemic returned in full fury as the averages started rising: 1,561 in September and 7,404 in October. Then, November (though 12/5) turned more horrific, and the average rocketed to 18,137, a whopping 39-fold increase from dormant July. The cases exceeded 20K in each of the recent three days. 

Likewise, the daily deaths averaged a mere five in July, rising to 31 in October, and soaring to 230 thus far in Nov-Dec. The fact that the daily tolls have consistently exceeded 400 in recent days and new weekly highs are being recorded perhaps points to a bleak winter until the vaccines are widely available and accepted. The 7-day moving average trendline also confirms the rapidly rising trend, despite the weekend reporting anomalies. 

The regression graph shows that the death rate subsided in the summer, falling significantly below the linear trendline. Unfortunately, as the fall arrived, it promptly turned into an exponential trend, meaning the death rate has been far surpassing the growth in cases. The exponential trend's r-squared value is 0.971 (not shown), which handily beats the r-squared value of the linear trend.

Though Germany has registered over 1.2M confirmed cases, it's still number eleven on the chart, well below the five worst-hit European countries, both in cases and deaths. Moreover, it has one of the lowest death rates globally, coupled with a low positivity rate. Despite the surge, its active status has been well-managed at 27%, while France records at 90%. Surprisingly, its population testing credentials have been lagging behind those of its neighbors.  

Given the surging wave, Germany needs to authorize the emergency use of the available vaccines from Pfizer and Moderna. 

Data Sources:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic_in_Germany 

Stay safe!

-Sid Som

homequant@gmail.com

Coronavirus Pandemic – The US faces a Massive Second Wave

The ongoing second wave of the pandemic has been fast and furious. Case in point: At the initial stages of the onslaught, the scientific community had projected the death toll to be around 65K; today, it stands at 276K. Similarly, at the tail-end of the initial surge in June, there were roughly 2.5M cases, exploding to over 14M as of today.

After a remission of the initial surge between July and September, the second wave hit the US. It initially hit the Sunbelt, extending into the middle corridor and on to the Northeast in recent weeks. While the daily cases averaged 38.959 in September, it escalated to 58,743 in October, rocketing to 139,702 in November. The 7-day moving average trendline amply confirms the explosion.  

Though the daily death toll has steadily risen during the second wave, the growth rate has been significantly lower than the initial encounter. For instance, the daily deaths averaged 761 in September, flat-lining in October to 746, and escalating to 1,176 in November. While the recent jump is significant, it is 1.5 times the September toll, compared to 3.6 times in case surge.

The above regression graph makes a case for the tapering death rate. Since the case surge has been outpacing the death rate, the line of best fit has been logarithmic with an r-squared value of 0.981, exceeding the r-squared value of 0.962 from the linear fit. The slope also demonstrates that the death toll has started falling after the intersection point of 10M cases and 205K deaths, forming the logarithmic (curvilinear) tilt.

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Though the US owns 22% of the world's cases and the highest population-case rate in the western world, it has a lower death rate than the worldwide average. Despite a higher positivity rate than most of Europe, it has one of the world's best testing credentials. Due to the on-going second wave in Europe and the US, the active rates continue to climb, whereas the Latin American countries have experienced significant drops.

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In the US, Texas, California, and Florida have been the three hardest-hit states, followed by Illinois and New York. The severity of the initial jolt keeps New York in the top five, with the highest death rate in the country. Lately, Wisconsin has seen a big jump in positivity rate, though Texas, Georgia, and Pennsylvania are also rising fast. Pennsylvania has one of the worst testing records as well.

Today, the US recorded the highest daily death toll of 2,611. Hopefully, Pfizer and Moderna will receive the Emergency Use Authorization (EUA) later in the week so the vaccination could start.

Stay safe!

Data Sources:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

Wikipedia -- COVID-19 pandemic in the United States

-Sid Som

homequant@gmail.com