Tuesday, March 31, 2020

Coronavirus Stats – the US Case – 03/31/2020 Update

Data Source: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
Click on the image to enlarge

Total Cases -- While the US outbreak started in Seattle, WA, New York City has been the epicenter for the last two weeks, accounting for 41% of the total cases. New Jersey was somewhat late to the saga but has gained significant momentum in he last two weeks, thus moving up the ladder to the 2nd position. Washington, the original front-runner, has now fallen to the 8th position, even below Florida and Illinois. California, on the other hand, has dropped from 2nd to 4th position, with 4% of the total cases. Michigan and Massachusetts have steadily trended up, now accounting for 4.1% and 3.6%, respectively. Louisiana is expected to overtake Washington tomorrow. 

Total Deaths -- In line with the total cases, New York now accounts for 41% of total deaths in the US. Fortunately, New Jersey's death rate has been lagging its proportional share of total cases. Conversely, Michigan has been registering higher death rate than its share of total cases. California has remained conforming. Washington is still reeling from the initial jolt of fatalities so their death rate has remained disproportionately high. Lately, Louisiana has been another sad story with very high deaths, thereby owning 6.3% of all deaths, despite recording only 2.8% of the total cases. Likewise, Georgia accounts for 2.1% of the total cases but owns 2.9% of all deaths thus far.

Active Cases -- Though the outbreak has been peaking in Europe, it is too premature to talk about a peak in the US. Therefore, the total cases and active cases are moving in tandem. For instance, New York accounts for 41% of the total cases and owns 40% of all active cases. Even Washington and California -- where the US outbreak started -- are still demonstrating conforming totals and active cases. As the domain of testing keeps widening, active cases will remain collinear for several weeks.

Data Source: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

-Sid Som
homequant@gmail.com

Monday, March 30, 2020

Is China’s Reporting of Coronavirus Stats Believable?

Data Source: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
(Click on  the image to enlarge)

The above data graph shows how linear China's rate of growth was between 2/1 and 2/20, rising from 14,380 to 75,465 -- an eye-popping 425%. Then, between 2/20 and 3/1, the growth tapered to a total of 80,026, registering a mere 6% growth. 

Amazingly, in March, this highly contagious and longer-living virus suddenly disappeared from there, crossing the country-line like a large family of migratory birds and moving on to a far-away continent called Europe. In the last 29 days, the total hardly moved up - from 80,026 to 81,470 - revealing an astonishing move sideways, with a total of 1,444 cases (or a daily average of 50 cases).

In a tweet yesterday (see above), Senator Ted Cruz rightly called out China's recent reporting: "China is lying." In fact, China is simply playing a deflection game, pointing fingers at other countries including the US. Worse yet, while reporting the 50/daily, they are claiming that these are being imported (from outside). 

Additionally, China has been reporting a death rate of 4.06% (as of 3/30), whereas the reported death rates for Italy, Spain and France have already been at 11.39%, 8.77% and 6.79%, respectively. Likewise, China's reported recovery rate stands at 92%, while Europe's has been in mid-teens. Of course, the WHO has yet to update it's worldwide death rate. 

All said and done, China's highly dubious reporting must be thoroughly investigated, hopefully the US, Italy, Spain and France, the four hardest-hit countries, spearheading the investigation. The WHO must also be investigated for it's less-than-adequate proactive role from the beginning of this outbreak. The global community does not need the WHO if they play a reactive role. 

Data Source: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

-Sid Som
homequant@gmail.com

Sunday, March 29, 2020

Coronavirus Stats – the US Case – 03/29/2020 Update

Data Source: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
Click on the image to enlarge

Total Cases -- While the US outbreak started in Seattle, WA, New York City has been the epicenter for the last two weeks, accounting for 42% of the total cases. New Jersey was somewhat late to the saga but has gained significant momentum in the last one week, thus moving up the ladder to the 2nd position. Washington, the original front-runner, has now fallen to the 8th position, even below Florida and Illinois. California, on the other hand, has dropped from 2nd to 3rd position, with 4.4% of the total cases. Michigan and Massachusetts have been steadily trending up. Louisiana and Pennsylvania may soon overtake Washington. 

Deaths -- In line with the total cases, New York accounts for 39% of total deaths in the US. Fortunately, New Jersey's death rate has been lagging their share of total cases. Conversely, California and Michigan have been registering higher death rates than their share of total cases. Washington is still reeling from the initial jolt so the death rate has remained disproportionately high. Lately, Louisiana has been another sad story with very high fatalities, thereby owning 6.1% of all deaths, despite recording only 2.5% of the total cases. Likewise, Georgia accounts for 1.9% of the total cases but owns 3.4% of all deaths thus far.

Active Cases -- Though the outbreak has been peaking in Europe, it is too premature to talk about a peak in the US. Therefore, the total cases and active cases are moving in tandem. For instance, New York accounts for 42% of the total cases and owns 41% of all active cases. Even Washington and California -- where the US outbreak started -- are still demonstrating conforming total and active cases. As the domain of testing keeps widening, active cases will remain collinear.

Tomorrow: Has the Eye of the Storm Surged Past NYC?

Data Source: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

-Sid Som
homequant@gmail.com


Saturday, March 28, 2020

Analyzing Coronavirus Stats of Hardest-hit Countries – 03/28/2020 Update

Data Source: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
Click on the image to enlarge

Total Cases -- The worldwide total has exceeded 662K (as of this writing at 8pm ET). The top table shows the ten hardest-hit countries -- in terms of total number of cases -- in the world thus far. Sadly, the US sits at the top of the table with 122K cases (or 18.5% of the worldwide total), followed by Italy (92K), China (81K), Spain (73K), Germany (57.7K) and France (37.6K). While China's incremental cases have flatlined lately, the total for the US, Italy, Spain and Germany have been moving up exponentially since early March. Unfortunately, Netherlands has displaced South Korea to occupy the 10th place. 

Deaths -- Italy's death toll has reached an alarming 10K, while Spain's has been hovering at 6K. Though less than 7% of the worldwide toll, the US toll has skyrocketed to 2K in a very short spell. About a month ago, WHO announced a revised death rate of 3.40%, which is expected to be further revised up shortly to reflect the reality on the ground. The current rate is 4.64% and has been on the upswing daily by several basis points.

Recovery -- Considering it's a global pandemic with an asymmetric outbreak, it's too early to talk about a stable worldwide average recovery rate, even continental averages. While the current worldwide recovery average is 21.39%, China's 92% rate is just awe-inspiring. On the other hand, Italy, Spain, Germany and France, the four hardest-hit European countries, have been registering very low recovery rates in mid-teens. It's too premature to talk about the US recovery rate. 

Active Cases -- Out of the 489K active cases globally, China's total has fallen to a mere 3,128 (or just under 4% of their total cases), some of which might have been recent imports (at least, that's what China continues to claim). Conversely, all of the above European countries are confronted with very high active rates of at least 75%. 

Given the mounting new cases every day, high death and low recovery rates, Italy and Spain need immediate military help from other countries, especially from militarily-strong countries like India, Russia and China. Meanwhile, it's however heart-warming to see that Russia has already sent a team of doctors and medical supplies to Italy. 

The US case will be analyzed tomorrow.

Data Source: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ 


-Sid Som
homequant@gmail.com

Friday, March 27, 2020

Analyzing Coronavirus Stats of Hardest-hit (Top-10) Countries

(Click on the image to enlarge)

Total Cases -- The worldwide total has exceeded 594K (as of this writing at 8pm ET). While the US has already eclipsed China, it is too early to compare the US stats with China's or even Italy and Spain's, the two hardest-hit European countries thus far. Sadly, Italy has surpassed the Chinese total today and Spain, at this current rate, will do so in about a week or so. While China's incremental cases have flatlined in March, Italy and Spain's have been moving up exponentially since March 5 and March 12, respectively. Despite being the 11th hardest-hit country, the Netherlands has been added on to the above list to demonstrate that it may soon displace South Korea from the major-10 list. 

Deaths -- China's death rate (4.05%) has remained in alignment with the worldwide average of 4.58%. About a month ago, WHO announced a revised death rate of 3.40%, which is expected to be further revised up shortly to reflect the reality on the ground. Italy's death rate of 10.56% is simply heart-breaking. Spain's rate has been on the upswing at 7.82%, topping Iran's 7.35%.

Recovery -- Considering it's a global pandemic with an asymmetric outbreak, it's too early to talk about a stable worldwide average recovery rate, even continental averages. While the current worldwide average is 22.32%, China's 92% rate is just awe-inspiring. On the other hand, Italy, Spain, Germany and France, the four European countries with at least 30K cases, have been registering very low recovery rates -- mostly in low to mid-teens. 

Active Cases -- Out of the 434K active cases globally, China's total has fallen to a mere 3,460 (or 4.25% of their total cases), some of which might have been imported (at least, that's what China claims). Italy and Spain are confronted with roughly 80% active cases. 

Given the mounting new cases everyday, high death and low recovery rates, Italy and Spain need immediate military help from other countries, especially from militarily-strong countries like India, Russia and China. Meanwhile, it's however heart-warming to see that Russia has already sent a team of doctors and medical supplies to Italy. 

Data Source: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ 


-Sid Som
homequant@gmail.com

Thursday, March 26, 2020

Coronavirus Stats – China vs. Italy and Spain

(Click on the image to enlarge)

Total Cases -- The worldwide total has exceeded 530K (as of the writing at 8pm ET). While the US has eclipsed China, it is too early to compare the US stats with China's or even Italy and Spain's, the two hardest-hit European countries thus far. Sadly, Italy is expected to surpass the Chinese total by tomorrow and Spain, at this current rate, in about a week or so. While China's incremental cases have been flat-lining in March, Italy and Spain's have been moving up exponentially since March 5 and March 12, respectively. 

Deaths -- China's death rate (4.04%) has remained in alignment with the worldwide average of 4.53%. About a month ago, WHO announced a revised death rate of 3.40%, which is expected to be further revised up shortly to reflect the reality on the ground. Italy's death rate of 10.19% is simply heart-breaking. Spain's rate has been on the upswing as well.

Recovery -- Considering a global pandemic with an asymmetric outbreak, it's too early to talk about a stable  worldwide average - even continental averages - recovery rate. While the current worldwide average is 23.34%, China's 91% rate is just awe-inspiring. On the other hand, Italy and Spain have been registering very low rates of 13% and 12%, respectively. 

Active Cases -- Out of the 381K active cases globally, China's share has fallen to a mere 4K (or under 5% of their total cases), some of which are claimed to be of imported origin. Italy and Spain are confronted with roughly 80% active cases. Given this high rate, they need military help from other countries. Russia has already sent a team of doctors and medical supplies to Italy. India, Russia and China need to offer military help to both countries immediately!

Data Source: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

-Sid Som
homequant@gmail.com

How to Protect Intellectual Property from Serial Thieves Posing as Investors

You are an innovator with a brilliant mind. With years of hard and smart work, you have developed an AI-based solution that you are ready to commercialize. But you do not have the capital to move forward with it. You realize you are at the mercy of outside investors. You contact a whole host of accredited venture capitalists and angel investors. Months pass by—no positive news. You are becoming impatient, perhaps somewhat disheartened. As desperation kicks in, you start to contact the so-called small investors from online lists. They give you big stories about their investment philosophies and portfolio companies without verifiable track records.

You are so eager to get started that you are ready to sign up with the one with the sweetest talk and biggest promises. You know you are supposed to check them out (i.e., do some due diligence). Other than a handful of references listed on their site (perhaps developed elsewhere where English is the seventh most crucial language), you have nothing else to go by. However, after speaking to one of them, it did tell you that those references could be fake. Yet, you are ready to take the plunge.   

Wait!

Within this particular investor group, there are too many serial thieves waiting to steal your invention. Since these serial thieves are intellectually incapable of differentiating between a digital watch with a new alarm tone (wow!) and an AI-based solution that advances humanity's cause, they will steal anything. But they are generally good at three things: serial lying (they tend to believe truth is for the devil), serial stealing (they will steal anything to satisfy and advance their greed), and running Ponzi schemes (to keep some hard-nut clients quiet).

Of course, they primarily develop their business by stealing client contacts. Some of those contacts do fall for these thieves' flashy lifestyles, constant lies, and pushy salesmanship, becoming future portfolio investors (a.k.a., victims) themselves. At one point, you will find out about it. Anyway, it doesn't matter how well you know your investors, do not (share or) introduce your contacts to them; let it take its natural course. The contacts-turned-investors (or future investors) are outside this chapter (couldn't care less!).

So, how do you protect yourself from these serial thieves? Here are some red flags and safeguards:

1. Check them out at the local BBB and Chamber of Commerce – Ignore the positives (could be cooked up as they often hunt as a pack) and zero in on the negative reviews/comments, even if the ratio is 10:1. Contact that one negative reviewer and find out what the underlying story is. If the investor does not subscribe to the local BBB or Chamber of Commerce, I would be very skeptical of their intentions (despite the falsehood you might get from them "Oh, that's old-fashioned; nobody cares about them anymore, etc."). The genuine ones will brag about their local BBB and Chamber of Commerce standing, etc.

2. Try to avoid the Key-man Insurance – Since it's a start-up, the investor may insist on taking out a large (relative to the money being invested) key-man insurance on you. Try to avoid it or defer it until the product (based on your concept) has been launched. If you have to do it, insist on having your spouse or parent as the co-beneficiary, preferably 50/50. If they continue to insist on their business entity is the sole beneficiary, I would be very skeptical of their intentions and consult a lawyer for legal safeguards. 

3. Initial IP Patent Filing must be in your name – Do not fall for a joint patent filing (with the business). If the relationship works out, you can always transfer it to the company for a substantial fee or equity option. Either way, it benefits the business. Suppose the initial filing is in the business name only. In that case, the serial thieves will do everything possible to push you out or will create an intolerable atmosphere wherein you push yourself out. If they insist on their way, show them the highway and look elsewhere. This clause must be anchored in the first agreement itself, which provides you with the primary protection.

4. You must be the CEO of the new corporation – If the whole business is going to be founded on your IP, you must be the CEO of the new company with total hiring authority – no two ways about it. The legitimate investors will insist on your stewardship. The serial thieves, on the other hand, might fuss about it. Starting, if you are not in charge, despite what the serial thieves say, your innovation would be road-killed, just a matter of time! You can always step down down the road, paving the way for a professional CEO, which is quite common. Again, this must be clearly laid out in the charter.

5. Insist on your own Independent Office with the long-term lease – This will give you more stability and independence. If you are forced to work out of a room inside their offices, you will gradually lose ground and become their pawn. It's a trick the serial thieves often play. If they think your IP is valuable, they must do everything possible to accommodate, nurture, and promote your requirements. While the parent company would be responsible for all rents and utilities, the lease must be in your company's name.

6. Insist on owning 51% shares of the new company – If you own 51%, you may not be pushed out quickly. When dealing with a small investor, you are inherently in a high-risk situation, thus requiring higher rewards. Similarly, please do not allow them to place majority directors of their choosing on the board. Also, try to hire an independent CPA and Lawyer for your company; it's not a question of bias, rather a problem of transparent billing, meaning your company must not subsidize their other portfolio companies.  

7. Negotiate a sizable salary during the gestation period - Due to the high ownership percent, if they are unwilling to give you a salary, you must nonetheless negotiate a decent wage, at least, until the company becomes profitable (easily two to three years), post which you must be allowed to sell a certain percentage of your unrestricted shares now and then on the open market, thereby enabling you to take care of your family expenditures. 

8. Insist on having the pre-negotiated capital locked in escrow – Since you are dealing with a small investor, you must ask them to put up the entire money in escrow, with a lawyer acting as the escrow agent. The lawyer will then disburse the working capital monthly. This is a critical test; while the legit investors will not have any issues with this, the serial thieves will invariably try to talk you out of it. If you succumb to their sweet talk, this is what will happen: Once the business is up and running, one sunny morning, you will get a call for an emergency meeting where they will announce 'we are out of money.' And, there goes your dream. Now you have to get hold of an expensive lawyer to get yourself distanced from those serial thieves. Meanwhile, they will go around and tell the world (primarily your contacts that they managed to steal) how you have destroyed a considerable sum of their extremely hard-earned (LOL) money without producing anything. Do not walk into this trap!

9. Do not outsource your IT or other essential services to their overseas portfolio companies – Outsourcing IT services to a quality US-based portfolio company would be fine. But these serial thieves often set up some portfolio companies overseas, luring you to outsource some of your essential services, primarily IT, to them. In return, you will get shallow quality products and services coupled with hefty bills. In no time, your working capital will dwindle, forcing you to sell a significant chunk of your shares back to them, to stay afloat – and it will be difficult for you to get out of this cycle until the eventuality hits the fan ('we are out of money'). And, it's all by design.

If you are dealing with a well-known/accredited venture capitalist, you are in safe hands. Your success is their success so that they will stand by you through thick and thin. But if you have to deal with a small, unverifiable investor, do your due diligence. We know you are not greed-filled. When you succeed, humanity progresses, and we all grow.

Do not let a low-life, greedy criminal steal your dreams!

Disclaimer -- The characters portrayed here are hypothetical, and any likeness to any individual or entity is strictly coincidental. The author does not offer this post as professional services advice in any form or manner. Every investor is different, so seek a competent professional's advice, preferably an experienced attorney, before deciding on a non-accredited investor.

- Sid Som, MBA, MIM
homequant@gmail.com


Wednesday, March 25, 2020

Understanding the Coronavirus Stats – 03/25/2020 Update

Sourcehttps://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
Click on the image to enlarge

Data Source: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
Click on the image to enlarge


Highlights

1. The epicenter has moved from China to outside of China, especially Europe and USA. The WHO has warned that the US could be the next. Iran continues to be a major concern. South Korea, like China, has tapered.

2. Sadly, the major 10 countries, including China, now account for over 83% of all cases and 93% of all deaths.

3. While China's recovery rate remains very high, it has been gaining momentum for South Korea and Iran as well -- the other two major victims that immediately followed China's outbreak.    

4. Unfortunately, in terms of total cases the US has moved up to the third position, accounting for nearly 14% of all cases worldwide.

5. With the skyrocketing new cases everyday, Italy's death toll has also climbed to 7,503 or 10.09% overall. While Russia is sending a team of doctors and supplies to Italy, the less-affected countries like India, Saudi Arabia, UAE, etc. need to follow suit before the situation in Italy goes totally out of control.

6. The published data shows that Italy currently has an alarming 3,489 serious/critical cases, followed by Spain (3,166) and France (2,827).

7. While China has tapered, it still has 4,287 active cases, including 1,399 serious/critical cases. Already devastated by the virus, China now fears a re-migration curve (primarily imported cases).  

8. The four European countries -- Italy, Spain, Germany and France -- now account for nearly 187,000 cases (an alarming 40%).

9. The most troubling stat has been the death rate in closed out cases (recovered + deaths). In last two weeks, that rate has more than doubled, from 6% to 16% and the slope of the curve looks horrific.

Data Source: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

-Sid Som
homequant@gmail.com

Monday, March 23, 2020

Understanding the Coronavirus Stats – 03/23/2020 Update

Source: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
Click on the image to enlarge



Highlights

1. The epicenter has moved from China to outside of China, especially Europe and the USA. Iran continues to be a major concern. South Korea, like China, has tapered.

2. Sadly, the major 10 countries, including China, now account for 85% of all cases and 94% of all deaths.

3. While China's recovery rate remains very high, it has been gaining momentum for South Korea and Iran, the other two major victims that immediately followed China.    

4. Unfortunately, in terms of total cases the US has moved up to the third position, accounting for nearly 11.5% of all cases.

5. With the skyrocketing new cases every day, Italy's death toll has also climbed to 6,077 or 9.51% overall. While Russia is sending a team of doctors and supplies to Italy, the less-affected countries like India, Saudi Arabia, UAE, etc. need to follow suit before the situation in Italy goes totally out of control.

6. The published data shows that Italy currently has an alarming 3,200 serious/critical cases, followed by Spain (2,350) and France (2,080).

7. While China has tapered, it still has 5,120 active cases, including 1,750 serious/critical cases. Already devastated by the virus, China now fears a circular curve.  

8. The four European countries -- Italy, Spain, Germany and France -- now account for nearly 148,000 cases (an alarming 39%).

9. The most troubling stat has been the death rate in closed out cases (recovered + deaths). In last two weeks, that rate has more than doubled, from 6% to 14% and the slope looks horrific.

Data Source: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

-Sid Som
homequant@gmail.com

Sunday, March 22, 2020

Understanding the Coronavirus Stats – 03/22/2020 Update

(Click on the image to enlarge)

Highlights...

1. The epicenter has moved from China to outside of China, especially Europe and USA. Iran continues to be a major concern. South Korea, like China, has tapered.

2. Sadly, the major 10 countries, including China, now account for 85% of all cases and 94% of all deaths.

3. While China's recovery rate remains very high, it has been gaining momentum for South Korea and Iran, the other two major victims that immediately followed China.    

4. Unfortunately, in terms of total cases, the US has moved up to the third position, accounting for nearly 10% of all cases.

5. With the skyrocketing new cases ever yday, Italy's death toll has also climbed to 5,476 or 9.26% overall. While Russia is sending a team of doctors and supplies to Italy, the less-affected countries like India, Saudi Arabia, UAE, etc. need to follow suit before the situation in Italy goes totally out of control.

6. The published data shows Italy currently has an alarming 3,000 serious/critical cases, followed by Spain (1,785) and France (1,746).

7. While China has tapered, it still has 5,353 active cases, including 1,845 serious/critical cases. Already devastated by the virus, China now fears a circular curve.  

8. The four European countries -- Italy, Spain, Germany and France -- now account for nearly 129,000 cases (an alarming 38%).

9. The most troubling stat has been the death rate in closed out cases (recovered + deaths). In the last two weeks, that rate has more than doubled, from 6% to 13%.

Data Source: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

-Sid Som
homequant@gmail.com

Saturday, March 21, 2020

How to read the Coronavirus Stats between the lines – Updated 03-21-2020

Source: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
Click on the image to enlarge

Paula, a Research Analyst with a Master's in Public Health, is attending the final interview for a Senior Health Care Analyst position. Here is the simulation of the interview:

The company EVP was there to welcome her, "Paula, congratulations on reaching the final phase of the hiring process. We started off with 25 best and brightest. You are now one of the final four. What an achievement! Whether you are the final one or not, you will always be respected here as a champion, a true champion indeed. I stopped by to welcome you back. Now, the interviewers will take over from here. Good Luck."

Question # 1
Interviewer: This interview concentrates on the on-going Coronavirus pandemic that has been terrorizing the world, including the US. A few days ago, the WHO. announced an overall death rate of 3.40%. Unfortunately, as of this afternoon, the death rate has climbed to 4.27%. How did they go wrong with their initial assessment?

Paula: WHO does not front-run the curve. Since the initial rate was computed strictly off of the early stage data, that was nothing but an initial assessment. We cannot hang our hats on that rate. Unfortunately, that rate will continue to climb. In fact, during the SARS outbreak, WHO's initial rate was proven to be much lower than the actual. As a public health professional, I read such numbers as initial stats, not as leading indicators. They will continue to revise their stats as they get to crunch the new data points.        

Question # 2
Interviewer: When only the closed-out cases are evaluated, the death rate now jumps to 12%, from the last week's 6%. Which one would you use and why?

Paula: Well, they serve two different purposes. The overall rate is for the public at large as it is easy to understand and report. The rate based on the closed-out cases is for the public health professionals. In fact, it is the real rate as it makes true apples-to-apples comparison. It does not make much scientific sense to compare deaths with the total cases as the latter comprise new cases as well. 

Question # 3
Interviewer: Do you expect this high death rate to continue for some time or it's just one-time explosion?

Paula: It's going to continue. I suspect the rate will go a few points higher before it starts to taper off. China's low rate of 4% is still keeping the average down. At this point, China still accounts for roughly 27% of the total cases. Once it goes down to under 20%, the death rate will spike again. 

Question # 4
Interviewer: Even a few days ago, the recovery rate was above 40%. Now it has fallen to 31%. What do you think is contributing to this sharp and significant decline in the recovery rate?

Paula: The obvious reason is the sharp rise in death rate. If you look at the graph showing the daily breakdown, you will notice the death rate curve was more or less linear until March 4, following which the slope has become completely exponential. Around that time, the epicenter moved from China to outside of China, and the epidemic burst into a global pandemic. Until March 4, China's high recovery rate was contributing to the overall high recovery rate. Going forward, as China's stats become less of a controlling factor, the recovery rate will continue to decline.



Data Source: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
Click on the image to enlarge

Question # 5
Interviewer: Though South Korea has 8,800 cases, they have the lowest death rate of 1.16%. Given that, shouldn't we expect to see a high recovery rate such as China's? 

Paula: We have inadequate data here so I won't be able to give a professional opinion on it. I need to see the active cases broken down into at least two categories: non-critical and critical cases. Yes, their recovery rate has been markedly lower than China's.   

Question # 6
Interviewer: Analyze the numbers related to Italy.

Paula: With a death rate twice the worldwide average and a low recovery rate, they are perhaps the worst victim of this on-going carnage. In fact, while studying the numbers for Italy yesterday I found that their death rate in closed-out cases has been a whopping 44%. They are in dire straits. 

Question # 7
Interviewer: What do you suggest we do to help Italy out of this tragic situation?

Paula: Italy is running out of time and options so they need military help from the global powers, especially militarily-strong countries like China, India, Russia and the US. Given China's current situation, their role could be advisory but they have the right expertise now. We need to call our Representatives in Washington DC and make this case to them. We need to act fast to avoid a much larger human tragedy, potentially a human catastrophe. 

Question # 8
Interviewer: The US picture is also deteriorating by the day. What suggestions would you offer to our President?

Paula: I will offer both long-term and short-term solutions to the President. The long-term solutions: In order to avoid future situations like this, I would ask him to introduce "Universal Basic Income" for all adults, cancel issuance of the new H1-B visas for 3-5 years starting 4-2020, and start phasing out the income tax and replace it with middle-class friendly progressive consumption taxes. In terms of short-term solutions, I would suggest at least four measures: (a) Free $1,000 monthly checks to all adults for six months, (b) Postpone the April 15 income tax filing deadline for six months, not three months (c) Student loan repayment holiday for six months without any interest and penalty, and (d) Any uninsured person requiring hospitalization due to the Coronavirus must be allowed total medical payment waiver. 

Question # 9
Interviewer: Though NYS has close to 11,700 confirmed cases, its cases are growing by leaps and bounds. What advice would you give to the Governor?

Paula: Governor Cuomo needs to shut down the NYC Subway system immediately. I take the NYC Subway everyday so I know how it could add to the woes. Additionally, the Governor should postpone the NYS income tax deadline by six months, waive all sales taxes for a while and double the NYS child care credit. Again, I like to come back to emphasize the situation in Italy. NYS' situation is nowhere as dire as Italy's. Italy is sitting on a ticking time bomb. The global community must pay immediate attention to Italy, or else we will rewrite the horrors of Pompeii all over again, with a much larger human catastrophe.

- Sid Som, MBA, MIM    
President, Homequant
homequant@gmail.com

Also read:
The Initial Interview
Universal Basic Income     
Phasing out Income Tax