Analyzing Coronavirus Stats of Hardest-hit Countries – 03/28/2020 Update

Data Source: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
Click on the image to enlarge

Total Cases -- The worldwide total has exceeded 662K (as of this writing at 8pm ET). The top table shows the ten hardest-hit countries -- in terms of total number of cases -- in the world thus far. Sadly, the US sits at the top of the table with 122K cases (or 18.5% of the worldwide total), followed by Italy (92K), China (81K), Spain (73K), Germany (57.7K) and France (37.6K). While China's incremental cases have flatlined lately, the total for the US, Italy, Spain and Germany have been moving up exponentially since early March. Unfortunately, Netherlands has displaced South Korea to occupy the 10th place. 

Deaths -- Italy's death toll has reached an alarming 10K, while Spain's has been hovering at 6K. Though less than 7% of the worldwide toll, the US toll has skyrocketed to 2K in a very short spell. About a month ago, WHO announced a revised death rate of 3.40%, which is expected to be further revised up shortly to reflect the reality on the ground. The current rate is 4.64% and has been on the upswing daily by several basis points.

Recovery -- Considering it's a global pandemic with an asymmetric outbreak, it's too early to talk about a stable worldwide average recovery rate, even continental averages. While the current worldwide recovery average is 21.39%, China's 92% rate is just awe-inspiring. On the other hand, Italy, Spain, Germany and France, the four hardest-hit European countries, have been registering very low recovery rates in mid-teens. It's too premature to talk about the US recovery rate. 

Active Cases -- Out of the 489K active cases globally, China's total has fallen to a mere 3,128 (or just under 4% of their total cases), some of which might have been recent imports (at least, that's what China continues to claim). Conversely, all of the above European countries are confronted with very high active rates of at least 75%. 

Given the mounting new cases every day, high death and low recovery rates, Italy and Spain need immediate military help from other countries, especially from militarily-strong countries like India, Russia and China. Meanwhile, it's however heart-warming to see that Russia has already sent a team of doctors and medical supplies to Italy. 

The US case will be analyzed tomorrow.

Data Source: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ 


-Sid Som
homequant@gmail.com