Coronavirus – How does the New Lineup Look after NY and NJ?

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The lineup after New York and New Jersey is currently spearheaded by Massachusetts with 55K cases and followed by Illinois (44K), California (43K) and Pennsylvania (43K). Lately, Michigan has seen an explosion in new infections, and at this current pace, it is expected to overtake at least California later next week considering that the latter has tapered. Florida has also been gaining momentum.

Michigan is faced with an alarming death rate of 8.8%, way above the national average of 5.6%. Though Connecticut has the second highest direct death rate, it has the highest normalized rate (deaths per 1M population). Despite a large immigrant population, California has managed to keep its coronavirus fatalities low due to its aggressive restrictions. Also, the fact that California has a low normalized death rate further confirms the effectiveness of the restrictions in place. Though Louisiana and Massachusetts have high death rates (along with high normalized infection rates), the effects of their intensified testing will alleviate the immediate danger.  

Though Texas has the lowest death rate, it lags behind in testing, which is troublesome. Ohio also lags behind in testing, thus facing a more serious situation than that of Texas as it already has a much higher death rate. Given its demography, Florida needs to maintain its current restrictions at least thru 5/31, as well as significantly increase testing, otherwise its death rate could promptly spike above the national average. Illinois, California and Pennsylvania should follow Louisiana and Massachusetts' recent testing models.

The fact that the active caseloads remain very high (at 80-90%), with a high national average of 82%, points to two immediate needs: significant bump in testing and gradual loosening of restrictions in keeping with the CDC's new guidelines.

Stay safe!

Data Source:
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

-Sid Som
homequant@gmail.com