Since we are ready to open up the non-essential sectors of the economy, we must be prudent and act on the advice of our great CDC scientists -- instead of politicians worried about their electoral prospects in November -- to avoid having to walk into a much bigger disaster.
At this point, we have three basic choices...
1. Test Employed People and Let "Negatives" Return to Work -- Gradually open the economy by allowing only the employed folks, who also test negative, to return to work. Of course, given the size of this population, we need a well-thought-out segmentation plan backed by a risk-tolerant model (see my prior post below for details). This approach (green trendline) might quickly reduce the current 2,000+/- daily death toll to a projected 1,000+/- in 30 days, with a steadily declining trend. If we stay this course, the next flu season, which could be much worse as the CDC projects, will also be far better managed.
2. Let All Asymptomatic People Return to Work -- This second option, perhaps the likeliest scenario, is to allow, even encourage, the asymptomatic people to return to (or look for) work. This may be performed by "Tele Health," allowing private physicians to check (via telephone or video call) and certify the people to return. This practice carries an inherent risk to the employer as many returning employees might easily pass as asymptomatic during the incubation period. This inherent risk aided by people's underlying medical conditions might not help lower the current rate. The flattening curve (blue trendline) captures this phenomenon, meaning the curve continues to go sideways, rather than declining. In order to lower the overall risk, the certifying physicians must be allowed to consider patients' medical conditions (diabetes, hypertension, cancer, etc.). Of course, this approach is nothing but kicking the can down the road.
3. Let the Governors Decide (en Masse) -- This is the worst possible scenario with serious negative outcomes, perhaps leading to workplace chaos, high absenteeism and employee turnovers. This unnecessary exuberance will further spike infections and, consequently, more deaths as well. Obviously, expecting the non-healthcare employees to use masks (long-term) will have very negative effects on work. The red trendline loosely replicates this dangerous scenario. This dangerous approach may trigger a more serious second wave in combination with the next flu season. At this point, the governors must consider the health and safety of the 99% rather than paying too much attention to the 1%. The 1% can always flee to Hamptons and Catskill ... didn't we just see that?
Stay safe.
Data Source:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_the_United_States
Also Read
We Need a Meaningful "Test and Return to Work" Segmentation Plan to Avoid a Bigger Rebound Disaster
-Sid Som
homequant@gmail.com
No comments:
Post a Comment