Coronavirus Outbreak – Daily Cases in California Continue to Surge Higher

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Though California, along with the state of Washington, was one of the first victims of the coronavirus outbreak in the US, it still hasn't peaked. The number of daily cases continues to rise. Between 3/18 and 5/22, the total cases jumped from a mere 675 to 90,631 -- a massive 13,000% escalation.

Highlights...

1. The top graph clearly shows that the daily cases are still rising, without any signs of peaking yet. While the first peak on 4/22 was followed by a believable taper, it didn't last long. The month of May has been rough for California; several new peaks as strong as the first one changed the entire data landscape, making it a multi-modal data distribution.

2. Both trendlines -- the linear as well as the 7-day moving average -- are upward sloping, confirming that a real data peak has yet to be reached. Even the 7-day moving average, which is inherently flatter and smoother than the 3-to-5 day averages (more appropriate for a shorter time series like this), shows a clear upward trend as well.      

3. The daily death graph (bottom) has the similar multi-modal data distribution. Unfortunately, the sudden drop-off after each short-lived peak has triggered false negatives. Therefore, a steady taper for 7 to 10 days will be needed to confirm a real peak, going forward.

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4. The above county-wise summary table reveals that Los Angeles (LA) County alone owns 48% of all cases and an even higher death toll at 56%. Unfortunately, LA County received disproportionately lower testing at 27%, while it continues to record the highest positivity rate in the state. 

5. The other four Southern California counties -- San Diego, Riverside, Orange and San Bernardino -- account for another 25% of all cases and 23% of the overall death toll. Fortunately, their positivity rates are lower than that of the LA County. 

Given the large immigrant population in LA County, it needs to significantly increase testing immediately, especially targeting the symptomatic undocumented population as they often are unwilling to come forward. 

Stay safe!

Data Sources: 
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic_in_California

-Sid Som
homequant@gmail.com