Coronavirus Outbreak – Why Germany's Active Case Rate is so much lower than its Neighbors

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By now, we all know that the hard-hit countries in Europe have some of the highest death rates (death toll to total confirmed cases). Germany, however, has bucked the trend with its exceptionally low death rate.

Though Portugal currently has a lower death rate than Germany, it has a very large active caseload which, unfortunately, will start to push the death rate higher in the near future.

Russia, on the other hand, has been left out given its delayed surge. Russia has yet to peak, while the countries listed above have not only peaked but are also tapering fast. Russia may be added to the list in the next go-around. 

Though Germany has the second highest population in Europe (after Russia), it has the lowest per capita cases (2,123/million) among the most populous countries. Also, the reason it has the lowest rate of positivity at 5.6%, despite having achieved a much lower testing average than Spain, Italy and the UK, is that it was very proactive from the onslaught of the outbreak in identifying and testing the most vulnerable segments of the population. France, Italy, Spain and the UK were very reactive, at best, at the outset.

Amid high death rates of 10 to 16% among the populous nations, Germany's 4.6% is simply exemplary. Its per capita death rate is one of the lowest in Europe. Belgium "with a population of 12M" has a higher death toll than that of Germany. Again, Germany managed to keep the death rate that low due to its very progressive approach to testing. 

The combination of low positivity and low death rates has been contributing to Germany's low active case rate as well. As of now, it has only 14K active cases versus France's 90K and Italy's 65K. In fact, its 7.8% active case rate is second only to Switzerland's 3.4%, which has a population of 9M.

Now that Germany has a better handle on the active caseload, it needs to significantly increase testing. One of its immediate targets should be to test the entire population of recent migrants.

Stay safe!

Data Source: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

-Sid Som
homequant@gmail.com