Arizona, along with a number of other southern states, has been going through a huge surge since late May, causing serious confusion and concern among scientists as they were expecting gradual-to-total taper in the Sunbelt in the summer months.
Highlights...
1. The total number of cases surged from 1,413 on 4/1 to 31,264 on 6/11 -- a whopping 2,113% increase, while the death toll registered a more heart-breaking surge of 3,786% during that period. This massive surge caught the scientists totally off guard.
2. To put the latest surge in Arizona in proper perspective, let's consider the following example: On 5/27, the statewide daily cases amounted to only 222 and since then it grew exponentially to over 1,500 cases in recent days.
3. Even the smooth 7-day moving average trendline has been showing highly accelerated growth in the last 20 days. The outer end of the trendline foretells the continuation of the current surge, at least in the near future.
4. The frequency table showing the cases by age group is more revealing. The outbreak in the western world has created a conventional wisdom that seniors, mostly 70+, are being severely impacted or are most at risk. The Arizona case is telling us a very different story. In fact, the people between the ages of 20 and 44 are twice as susceptible to the infection as their 65+ counterparts. Even the youngest age group has not been spared.
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5. Like the age distribution, the gender classification also shows a somewhat atypical picture. In most instances, the outbreak dealt a more serious blow to the male population than to the female population. In Arizona, the scenario has suddenly transposed.
Unfortunately, Arizona has also fallen behind in testing. While most of the East Coast states have already achieved per capita testing of at least 100K, Arizona has been registering only at the upper 50K range. It has to significantly up the ante to have a better handle on the surge.
Stay safe!
Data Source:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic_in_Arizona
-Sid Som
homequant@gmail.com
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