Coronavirus Pandemic – The State of Ohio has been Rapidly Resurging

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1. Though the state of Ohio peaked and tapered in mid-June, the trend quickly reversed in late-June, starting an extraordinary resurgence by eclipsing the original highs set in April and May. While the daily cases averaged 543 in June, the average more than doubled in July to a whopping 1,270. The 7-day moving average trendline confirms the massive resurgence.

2. Daily deaths moved up in tandem with the everyday cases. The regression graph makes it amply clear that the death toll has started spiking after flattening in the middle of the curve (May/June). Had the reporting been more consistent on weekends, the spikes would have been more multi-modal. However, the trendline demonstrates the reversal at the outer end of the curve (July/August).

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3. The death rate in Ohio has not only stabilized but has also fallen below some of its surrounding neighbors, particularly Pennsylvania and Michigan. Moreover, its testing credentials are worse than most of its neighbors. Though its positivity rate is still below the national average, it will start inching up with increased testing.

To flatten the resurging curve, Ohio needs to re-introduce more stringent mitigation measures, including a more careful multi-phase re-opening of schools, religious institutions, theme parks, and indoor amusement centers.

Stay safe!

Data Sources:
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic_in_Ohio

-Sid Som
homequant@gmail.com