Coronavirus Pandemic – Argentina faces a Fast and Furious Surge

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Though Argentina did not face the level of horror Brazil and Mexico did, it has been dealing with a fast and furious surge since July. In June, the daily cases averaged 1,625, jumped to 4,089 in July, escalated to 7,304 in August, and rocketed further to 10,705 in September. In other words, between June and September, the daily cases escalated 560%. The 7-day moving average trendline confirms the linear surge.

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The death toll also kept pace with the surge. In June, the daily deaths averaged 26, almost tripled in July to 72, exponentiated to 165 in August and 216 in September. The September median (helps avoid the weekend aberrations) is already at 246, indicating a ninefold escalation between June and September thus far. The 7-day moving average shows how the curve sharply trended up from the mid-July.

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The above regression also demonstrates the tight fit on both ends of the curve, however somewhat breaking away in the middle between 9,000 and 11,000 cases. Despite the disassociation, the r-squared value remains moderately high. The r-squared value jumps significantly higher by saving the handful of outliers, indicating that the peak has not arrived yet. Alternatively, the close association of the data points at the outer end of the curve shows the return of the surge in lockstep.

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The fact that Argentina has risen from the 42nd position in June to the 10th position in September proves its fast and furious surge. Unfortunately, it has the second-worst testing and positivity records amongst the ten hardest-hit countries in the world. Fortunately, both death rates remain low. Considering that the winter has just come to a close in the southern hemisphere, Argentina may see a quick taper shortly. 

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Though Argentina has one of the lowest death rates in Latin America, its positivity rate remains exceptionally high at 36%, exceeded only by the positivity rates of Bolivia and Mexico. Its testing credentials also remain significantly sub-par, at least as compared to Chile and Peru. 

It needs to intensify testing until the vaccine becomes widely available to the citizenry.

Stay safe!

Data Sources:
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic_in_Argentina

-Sid Som
homequant@gmail.com