Today (9/22/2020), the USA encountered the somber milestone of 200K coronavirus-related deaths, contributing to 21% of the worldwide total of 974K. In one of the press conferences in March, President Trump opined he would be happy with 100K deaths. Sadly, we are already at twice as many deaths.
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Out of the nearly 32M worldwide cases thus far, the US owns 7M cases, or 22.4% of the total cases, which is in line with the death rate. Though the US had initially peaked and tapered in April, it faced a rapid resurgence in July due to re-escalations in the Sunbelt. Fortunately, it has steadily tapered in August and into September; for example, the daily cases averaged 27,515 in June, more than doubled to 61,148 in July, but has trended down to 46,497 in August and 37,818 in September. The 7-day moving average trendline amply confirms the taper.
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The daily deaths kept pace with the cases during the recent resurgence. Since there is a 2-4 weeks lag between the onset of infections and deaths, the curve tends to be slightly forward-tilted; for instance, the daily deaths averaged 808 in July, surging to 964 in August, and tapering back to 765 in September. The 7-day moving average trendline is confirming as well.
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As indicated before, the US is the frontrunner with 200K deaths, followed by Brazil with 138K and India 90K. India remains the epicenter with rapidly surging cases and fatalities, while Latin America continues to project very high positivity. While the USA's actual death and positivity rates remain low, its population-level rates are still high due to its massive surge at the outset of the onslaught. However, its testing credentials are leading the way.
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The high positivity rates in the southern sun states are perhaps signaling another resurgence soon.
Stay safe!
Data Sources:
-Sid Som
homequant@gmail.com
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