While Romania, Poland, and Ukraine face a massive surge, Russia faces a dramatic resurgence, retesting the May peak.
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At the initial peak in May, Russia averaged 9,656 daily cases. When it wholly tapered in August, the average drastically declined to 5,011. However, in the last 15 days, it averaged 8,854 -- a whopping 77% re-escalation from the August bottom. The 7-day moving average eerily confirms the on-going resurgence.
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Though the initial surge in Ukraine was tepid until July, it has picked up massive momentum ever since; for example, between April and June, the daily average stood at a mere 491, nearly quadrupling to 1,685 in August, and simply rocketing to 3,223 in September-October.
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After experiencing a rapid surge in July, Romania had peaked in August but failed to taper. Instead, it has resumed the surge, quickly eclipsing the initial peak. Between April and June, the daily cases averaged 272, escalating to 1,487 in September-October. Lately, it has been making new highs almost every day, with the 7-day moving average showing an exponential reversal.
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The situation in Poland has been slightly different. It more or less flatlined between April and July, escalated slightly in August, and has been rising meteorically in September-October. Comparing the April-June daily average of 354 with the last 15 days' average of 1,775 makes a more compelling case. The moving average trendline is also confirming.
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The above correlations matrix is quite telling. Considering Russia's on-going situation is a resurgence, rather than the initial surge, it has virtually no correlations with the other three countries. On the other hand, since Poland, Romania, and Ukraine continue their initial surge, they share high collinearity among them. The similarity of the surge between Romania and Ukraine paves the way for the highest collinearity of 0.87.
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Unfortunately, unlike in other parts of Europe where the death toll remains low despite the resurgence, the elevated death toll in Russia has returned, routinely retesting the old highs set in June. Poland, Romania, and Ukraine are no different -- their current death charts continue to mimic the surge.
These countries need a rapid taper to avoid having to run into the winter flu season.
Data Source: Wikipedia: COVID-19 pandemic in Russia
Stay safe!
-Sid Som
homequant@gmail.com
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