Saturday, April 18, 2020

Analysis of the Closed-out Coronavirus Cases – the Global Case

(Click on the image to enlarge)

The above table shows the hardest-hit countries in the world with at least 25K coronavirus cases (as of 8pm on 4/17). China has been left out. It makes no sense to include China's unreliable reporting; doing so would simply skew the real stats. Also, the UK hasn't reported the updated recoveries, so the analysis of their closed-out stats remains incomplete, too. The worldwide coronavirus cases have now exceeded a mammoth 2.28M.

Highlights of the Closed-out Cases

1. Of the 724,509 closed-out cases worldwide, the split between deaths and recoveries stands at 21:79. Since the world has gradually been coming to grips with more effective treatments, the recovery rate has steadily climbed, which is one positive patch amid this ongoing pandemic.

2. Obviously, the US remains the epicenter of the outbreak with 709K confirmed and 97K closed-out cases (32% and 13% of the worldwide totals, respectively). Unfortunately, the US death rate (38%) has far outpaced the worldwide average (21%). Of course, since the death stats are instantaneously recorded while the recovery is generally a slow process - often a lengthy one - the current US rates reflect that initial imbalance which will be significantly moderated in coming months.

3. Of the three worst-hit countries in Europe - Spain, Italy and France - Spain's rates are trending in line with the worldwide averages while Italy and France demonstrate heart-breaking high death rates, considering they have already gone past the initial imbalance phase.

4. Though the surge in the UK occurred much later than its worst-hit European counterparts, it has lately been catching up. Granted, their recovery stats are not usable, but the actual death rate (total deaths to total cases) of 13% points to the ongoing mayhem there.

5. Despite having to deal with 141K confirmed cases, Germany has been doing a phenomenal job in taking care of their infected population, as evidenced in their very low death rate. Of the 87K closed-out cases, 83K have recovered -- truly awesome job!

6. Belgium has been struggling with ballooning deaths every day. Of the 36% closed-out cases, they have reported a death rate of 39%. Then again, their situation is somewhat analogous to the current US case: the initial imbalance needs to be heeded to.

7. Switzerland, like Germany, has risen to the occasion. A 93% recovery rate is really something to write home about!

8. Lately, Brazil and Canada are being bombarded with new cases, but they seem to be managing their sickened population better than many other countries across the globe. Russia and Netherlands' closed-out stats are incomplete at this point. 

9. Last but not least, Iran. Amid all those economic sanctions they have a low death rate of 8%. I am confused. This is where analysis turns into paralysis.

Stay safe!

Data Source: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

-Sid Som
homequant@gmail.com
            

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