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| (Click on the image to enlarge) |
The line graph (top) shows while the New York City curve has just started to flatten, the rest of the NYS curve has been flattening for a while (since 4/11).
New York City is the home to a large minority population, especially African Americans and Latino Americans. This rapidly increasing divergence between the two curves results from the fact that the city's minority population has been more severely impacted by this outbreak than their counterparts.
On 3/18 (not shown), the split between NYC and the rest of NYS was 644 to 730 (difference of -86 cases), growing to 1,339 to 1,043 (+296) the next day. The same trend has been continuing ever since; for instance, the difference grew to 10,483 on 3/31 and accelerated to 13,071 and 16,158 on 4/5 and 4/11, respectively. The difference has however tapered in the last three days, indicating the simultaneous flattening of curves.
By studying the two data lines mutually exclusively, one can easily come to the conclusion that the rest of NYS had peaked in early April, while NYC has just started to peak. By early next week, both curves are expected to show clear logarithmic slopes, meaning they will further tilt down.
The regression graph (bottom) shows the rapid acceleration of NYC cases: between 80K and 115K, the data points were pushed above the regression line. Now that the acceleration has significantly tapered, the five most recent data points are residing below the line.
My blog post on 4/9 showed how the devil was getting frightened. Today, the devil is totally cornered.
Humans will always win the war with the devil!
Data Source:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_New_York_(state)
Stay safe!
-Sid Som
homequant@gmail.com
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