Analysis of Coronavirus Outbreak in Latin America

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Highlights:

1. Brazil -- Though Brazil has the largest number of cases in Latin America, its effective rate (No of Cases/1M pop) is significantly lower than those of several other countries in the region. Moreover, Brazil has peaked as its daily new cases have been steadily trending down since hitting the highest point on April 15. Its high death rate can be attributed to its inadequate testing. 

2. Peru -- Despite having 16K cases, Peru has a fairly high effective rate. Nonetheless, it has managed to keep its death rate low by putting in place an efficient testing system. Of course, the good news is that Peru has also peaked as its daily new cases have been on the wane since hitting the peak on April 13.

3. Chile -- Though Chile already has over 10K cases with a high effective rate, it nonetheless has the lowest death rate in the region due to its highly aggressive testing mechanism. Chile -- peaked or very close to peaking -- announced yesterday its soon-to-be-introduced "Covid Digital" project to certify its "negative" population. 

4. Ecuador -- With over 10K cases and a high effective rate, Ecuador has one of the worst overall stats in the region. Their primary failure thus far has resulted from inadequate testing; for instance, Ecuador's 32,453 tests look quite pale vis-a-vis Chile's 118,827, albeit having comparable population sizes.  

5. Mexico -- Though Mexico has fewer than 10K cases, it is nowhere close to the peak. Conversely, Mexico's cases are growing exponentially -- from 353 new cases on 4/14 to 578 on 4/18 to 764 on 4/20. Their highest death rate coupled with the lowest testing rate point to an unsettling situation in the immediate future. 

6. Panama -- Despite Panama's small population of 4M, the combination of a late and erratic surge demonstrates a high effective rate of 1,035. Fortunately, their intensified testing has been keeping the death rate low. Obviously, the recency of the surge translates to the low recovery rate and high active caseloads. 

7. Colombia and Argentina-- Late surges, inadequate testing, high death rates, and low recovery rates currently describe the outbreaks of these two countries. They need to intensify testing to avoid having to be confronted with much bigger situations.

Data Source: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

Stay safe!

-Sid Som
homequant@gmail.com