Today, Mexico hit a grim milestone – 50K deaths.
1. While the surge in Mexico has been relentless since early- June, it has reached almost a horrific level in July/August. Though the daily cases averaged 2,305 in May, the average jumped to 4,514 in June and a whopping 6,395 in July. The linear slope of the 7-day moving average trendline confirms the massive surge.
2. Daily deaths moved up in tandem with the everyday cases. The daily death toll averaged 260 in May, more than doubled to 595 in June, and drove further higher to 615 since then. Since June, the daily deaths exceeded horrific 800 instances on twelve different occasions. Had the reporting been more consistent on weekends, the spikes would have been more multi-modal. The trendline, however, demonstrates the sharp rise in June and July.
3. Though the slope in the above aggregate regression graph is almost perfectly linear, the recent death trend has been slightly up-sloping, posing more threat to the vulnerable population, considering Mexico has one of the worst testing records in Latin America.
4. The slope in the above daily regression graph remains linear, except at the curve's outer end, confirming the threat mentioned above in the short-run. The daily regression scatter produces a much tighter fit, with a higher r-squared value, without the handful of outliers resulting from inconsistent reporting on weekends.
Highlights...
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| (Click on the image to enlarge) |
1. While the surge in Mexico has been relentless since early- June, it has reached almost a horrific level in July/August. Though the daily cases averaged 2,305 in May, the average jumped to 4,514 in June and a whopping 6,395 in July. The linear slope of the 7-day moving average trendline confirms the massive surge.
2. Daily deaths moved up in tandem with the everyday cases. The daily death toll averaged 260 in May, more than doubled to 595 in June, and drove further higher to 615 since then. Since June, the daily deaths exceeded horrific 800 instances on twelve different occasions. Had the reporting been more consistent on weekends, the spikes would have been more multi-modal. The trendline, however, demonstrates the sharp rise in June and July.
3. Though the slope in the above aggregate regression graph is almost perfectly linear, the recent death trend has been slightly up-sloping, posing more threat to the vulnerable population, considering Mexico has one of the worst testing records in Latin America.
4. The slope in the above daily regression graph remains linear, except at the curve's outer end, confirming the threat mentioned above in the short-run. The daily regression scatter produces a much tighter fit, with a higher r-squared value, without the handful of outliers resulting from inconsistent reporting on weekends.
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| (Click on the image to enlarge) |
5. The above table shows how Mexico stacks up against its hardest-hit Latin American neighbors. By now, it's an open secret that Mexico has been registering the highest death rate in Latin America and also has one of the highest death rates globally. Though Latin America, in general, has some of the highest positivity rates in the world, Mexico, Bolivia, and Honduras, in particular, have astronomically high rates in the '40s.
Additionally, Mexico has the worst testing credentials among these countries.
Additionally, Mexico has the worst testing credentials among these countries.
Stay safe!
Data Sources:
-Sid Som
homequant@gmail.com
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