Coronavirus Pandemic – AR, LA, MS & TN have Tapered but Death Toll remains Elevated

After rapidly surging in June and July, these four contiguous states -- Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, and Tennessee -- have collectively tapered, but the death tolls have yet to do so. 

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1. The graph shows how the cases rapidly surged between 6/25 and 7/25, followed by a quick peak and a steady taper. The states, individually, have also been exhibiting the same trend (not shown here). While tapering, some occasional upswings are there, but the moving average trendline reveals the smoothed out spikes.

    

2. Since there is a lag between the open cases and deaths, the death toll graph shows an upswing rather than the taper. The collective toll has yet to peak. In June, the trend was sideways, producing a false peak as the trend abruptly reversed in July and continued into August. Since the cases have significantly tapered, this lagging trend will follow suit in the coming months.

3. The outer end of data trend remains above the exponential regression trendline, proving that the cases have tapered, but the death toll continues to buck the trend. The death trend is a lagging indicator, so it has to conform to its origin -- just a matter of time, perhaps in the coming weeks.

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4. While Louisiana's death rate has been slightly above the national average, the other three states have maintained below-average rates. In line with Louisiana's high case totals and death toll relative to its population size, its population rates remain very high. Unfortunately, while the on-going surges for the other three states are initial, Louisiana has resurgence as it had encountered the initial surge in March-April.

5. Of course, there is an emerging silver lining for Louisiana: its testing record has picked up significant momentum, exceeding its neighbors' and national rates. At this current rate, it should be able to test its entire vulnerable population. Mississippi's positivity rate has been registering far above the national rate. 

Stay safe!

Data Sources:
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic_in_Louisiana (and others)

-Sid Som
homequant@gmail.com

Coronavirus Pandemic – How the Continents have Fared So Far

While North America has been hit with the highest number of cases at 6.7M, Africa has the lowest at 1.2M. Between the highest and lowest cases, Asia, South America, and Europe have so far accounted for 5.9M, 5.5M, and 3.2M, respectively. Likewise, North America and Africa share the highest and lowest death tolls at 252K and 27K, respectively. 

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Africa -- The above table shows the hardest-hit ten countries in Africa. Unfortunately, South Africa alone accounts for 52% of the cases and 47% of all deaths on the continent. Though South Africa's death rate remains low, its positivity rate has been high. Egypt has an astronomically high positivity rate of 72%. While South Africa and Morocco have been intensifying testing, the other countries' credentials have been appallingly poor.

Asia -- India has been the epicenter on this continent for a while, with 48% and 43% of all cases and deaths. Though India's death rate and population relativity ratio have been low, its testing record has been dreadful. Iran has been another sad story in Asia. It not only has the highest death rate but also owns a high positivity rate. Today, it has surged past the 20K death mark. Qatar, Bangladesh, Iraq, and Pakistan are also encountering high positivity rates.

Europe -- Russia has been the frontrunner for a while, with nearly 30% on the continent's cases. Of course, the four hardest-hit countries when the pandemic first broke out in Europe -- France, Italy, Spain, and the UK -- still account for some of the highest death tolls on the continent. Their death rates remain high as they did not face any resurgence. Sweden has the highest positivity rate as it opted to experiment with herd immunity. Ukraine has the most inadequate testing record on the list.

North America -- The North American story has been the tale of two countries -- the US and Mexico. The US accounts for 85% of all cases and 70% of all deaths on the continent. Lately, the Sunbelt in the US has been going through a massive resurgence. Sadly, Mexico's story has been unique: Though it accounts for only 8% of the cases, it owns 23% of all deaths, paving the way for a high death rate. Canada also has a high death rate. Other than the US and Canada, the testing records for the rest have been woefully inadequate. 

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South America -- Unlike North America, where the US accounts for the lion's share, the five worst-hit countries own 95% of all cases and deaths, although Brazil has been the biggest victim of the lot, with 63% of the cases and 61% of the deaths. Brazil continues to be the epicenter on the continent, with over 800 daily deaths. The positivity rates in South America remain the highest in the world. Chile is the only country on the continent to have crossed the 100K mark in population-testing ratio.

Stay Safe!

Data Source: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

-Sid Som

homequant@gmail.com

Coronavirus Pandemic – Canada has Tapered but Testing Credentials are Subpar

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1. The above graph shows how the daily cases in Canada have completely tapered in July/August. It averaged at the peak in May at 1,196, plunged to 442 in June and further moved sideways to 384 in July/August. The absence of any upside momentum, as evidenced by the 7-day moving average, bodes quite well for the near future, meaning no resurgence is on the horizon.

2. After averaging 130 daily deaths in May, the toll nicely plummeted to 43 in June and a mere 9 in July/August. The 7-day moving average emphatically depicts the collapsing and flattening of the curve.

3. The regression reveals that the death rate curve has flattened since hitting 100K cases. While the total cases climbed from 100K to 122K in July/August, the death toll barely moved from 8,500 to 9,000. A non-linear trendline, therefore, shows the near-perfect fit with the resulting r-squared value.

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4. Unfortunately, among the countries with similar caseloads (100K to 200K), Canada has the highest death rate at 7.4%, more than twice the worldwide average of 3.5%. The reason is straightforward: Among all of the advanced and wealthy countries in the world, Canada's testing credentials remain at the bottom quartile; case in point: The US and the UK have been registering at 216K (per million population), while Canada has been bouncing around at 126K. 

Of course, the silver lining has been Canada's meager positivity rate, which is expected to move up as the testing gets intensified. Nonetheless, Canada has thus far been very fortunate to have such a low positivity rate. 

Stay safe!

Data Sources:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

2020 Coronavirus Pandemic in Canada - Wikipedia

-Sid Som

homequant@gmail.com

Coronavirus Pandemic – India Endures Two Grim Milestones: 2.5M Cases and 50K Deaths

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1. The above graph shows how surging daily cases have been tormenting India. Between 6/19 and 7/15, the daily cases averaged 21,083, skyrocketing to 51,291 since then -- a whopping 143% jump in mere a month. Even the 7-day moving average has been trending at over the perfectly-linear 45-degree.

2. The daily death toll also kept pace, moving in tandem with the cases. During the periods described above, the death toll average jumped nearly 80%, from 447 to 798. While the moving average trendline has remained linear, it is slightly below the perfect-45. Unfortunately, the average has further jumped to 918 in the last ten days.

3. Since the above two graphs demonstrated linear trends during the same period, the regression between the two datasets is expectedly linear, as evidenced by the high r-squared value of 0.872. 

Hey Applied Econ students -- Here is the power of outliers: Without one outlier data point on 7/23, the r-squared jumps to 0.93.

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4. Given the large population of India, it has one of the smallest population (per million) death rates among the hardest-hit countries in the world. Since it opted for a series of lockdowns initially, instead of intensifying testing, its testing credentials are woefully weak. Its positivity rate has been inching up too.

Happy Independence Day, India!

Stay safe!

Data Sources: 

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic_in_India

-Sid Som

homequant@gmail.com

Coronavirus Pandemic – Death Toll in the Sunbelt keeps Surging

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1. The combined picture above shows how a massive surge in death toll has taken over the Sunbelt since the beginning of July, with the average daily toll moving up by almost 100 deaths every week. While the daily average death toll in June was 171, it jumped to 440 in July and rocketed to 618 in August, proving the horrific nature of the surge. The 7-day moving average confirms the surge. One must understand these are actual deaths and not just confirmed cases.

2. The Florida and Texas graphs demonstrate the almost uniform contributions of the states to the overall picture. While the daily average of Florida in June was 35, it escalated to 108 in July and 159 in August. The Texas case has been even worse. The daily average in June was a mere 25, increasing to 132 in July and 227 in August. In other words, the surge between June and August has already exceeded a whopping 800%.

3. The above regression of daily death counts between California and Florida shows a positive linear relationship. When a handful of outliers are removed from the scatter, the r-squared value improves significantly, proving that inter-state movements have been in lockstep. 

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4. Fortunately, the death rates have remained in line with the national average. Unfortunately, Arizona and Florida's positivity rates have remained very high, while Georgia and Texas are catching up. Alongside, Louisiana, Alabama, South Carolina, and Nevada are also surging. Alabama and South Carolina have been registering double-digit positivity rates as well. 

Given these high death tolls -- not just confirmed cases or hospitalizations -- state governors must keep mitigation measures, including mandatory use of masks in all public places until the current situation drastically improves.

Stay safe!

Data Source: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic_in_Arizona (and others)

-Sid Som
homequant@gmail.com

Coronavirus Pandemic – The World Faces Two Grim Milestones – 20M Cases and 750K Deaths

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This week, as the world faced two grim milestones -- 20M cases and 750K deaths -- the critics and non-believers of the pandemic have been silenced by the gravity of the horror it has brought to the world. 

The only reason the current death toll of 750K is not comparable to that of the Spanish Flu, which occurred about a hundred years ago, is the enormous growth in the medical science and technology over the years.

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The top table shows the stats of the hardest-hit ten countries in the world in terms of the number of confirmed cases. While the US has remained the front-runner since it became the epicenter in April, Brazil and India have seen a massive rise in caseloads in the last three months, accounting for 53% of the world's total cases. Russia, South Africa, and Mexico have also faced a significant rise in the number of cases. These ten countries now account for 70% of all cases.

The bottom table summarizes the stats of the hardest-hit ten countries in the world by death toll. Other than the fact that the US and Brazil still occupy the top two positions, the rest of the line-up is quite different; for example, the original European victims like the UK, Italy, and France show up on this list, while the South American names are missing. The top five countries on this list account for 56% of all deaths, while the top-10 accounts for 74%.

Mexico has one of the highest death rates at 11%, but it also has a sky-high positivity rate of 44%. The death rates of the three original European victims -- France, Italy, and the UK -- remain high because their numbers (both cases and deaths) have not grown much since the taper.

Stay safe!

Data Source: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

-Sid Som
homequant@gmail.com

Link to Sid's Books

Coronavirus Pandemic – The On-going Rapid Surge in the Midwest

To keep this blog post short and simple, the Midwest here comprises only five states: Illinois (IL), Indiana (IN), Michigan (MI), Minnesota (MN), and Wisconsin (WI). 

While some of the Midwest states (IN, MN and WI) are surging, others (IL and MI) are resurging. Even the states that are left out have been participating in the current surge.

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1. The current surge resumed in mid-June and has been escalating rapidly. The daily cases averaged 2,093 in June but jumped 78% in July to a whopping 3,716. MI, which encountered a massive surge in April, has been spearheading the current surge with 165% jump, month-over-month, followed by WI (129%), IN (79%), IL (50%) and MN (35%).

2. The above correlation matrix reveals that the combined MidWest has the highest and lowest correlations expectedly with MI and MN, respectively, in line with their contributions to the current surge. Likewise, MI has the highest and lowest correlations with WI and MN, respectively. Since multi-collinearity has been disregarded here, it has paved the way for some minor distortions.

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3. The residual impact of the prior surge has contributed to MI's inflated death rate, resulting in the entire MidWest's higher death rate. While MI and IL have been registering higher death and population mortality rates, WI and MN are on a better course. On the other hand, the positivity rates of IL and IN have remained relatively high. IN's testing credentials have also fallen behind its regional counterparts.

Stay safe!

Data Sources:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic_in_the_United_States

-Sid Som

homequant@gmail.com

                  Link to Sid's Books

Coronavirus Pandemic – Brazil Reaches another Unfortunate Milestone – 100K Death Toll

Today, Brazil hits another unfortunate milestone: the 100K death toll. It's a somber day for Brazil, indeed.

Brazil has been the epicenter of the outbreak in South America since May, occupying the number two position behind the US but far surpassing the hardest-hit European countries and India. 

The outbreak in Brazil was quite delayed relative to the outbreak in Europe and the USA. On 3/15, Brazil had only 200 cases and no deaths, while the US already had 160,686 cases and 2,985 deaths. In Europe, Italy had 24,747 cases and 1,809 deaths, while the cases in Spain and France were on the rise. 

Highlights...

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1. Brazil has been experiencing an extraordinary surge since May. While daily cases averaged 29,573 in June, the average jumped to 41,316 in July/August -- a whopping 40% escalation. The 5-day moving average trendline confirms the massive rise. The 'W' formation poses a more severe threat in the short-run.

2. However, the daily death toll has been flat-lining, which is a silver lining in all this doom and gloom. The daily death toll averaged 1,009 in June, moving sideways to 1,050 in July/August. On eighteen different occasions in July/August, the daily deaths exceeded horrific 1,200 instances. The trendline also demonstrates the sideways movement in July/August. 

3. The slope in the above aggregate regression graph is almost perfectly linear, posing the same relentless threat more threat to the vulnerable population as in June and July, considering Brazil -- like the rest of hard-hit South America -- has a very high positivity rate. 

4. The above daily regression graph's slope remains linear, confirming that the mortality rate -- unlike in the US and Europe -- has been uncontrolled. The daily regression scatter produces a much tighter fit, with a higher r-squared value, without the handful of outliers resulting from inconsistent reporting on weekends. 

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5. The above table shows how Brazil stacks up against its hardest-hit South American neighbors. Though it has a reason death rate, its normalized population mortality rate has been very high, behind only Peru and Chile. In general, South America has some of the highest positivity rates in the world, and Brazil has not bucked the trend either.  

By being in Southern Hemisphere, Brazil is in the middle of the winter season, meaning it is also in the midst of the conventional allergy and flu season, thus accentuating the havoc. 

Unfortunately, many local experts believe the reported numbers do not reflect the reality on the ground. According to Alexandre Naime Barbosa, a medical professor at the São Paulo State University, "The true number (of cases) could even be as high as 10 million people." 

Stay safe!

Data Sources:
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic_in_Brazil

-Sid Som
homequant@gmail.com

Link to Sid's Books

Coronavirus Pandemic – The Relentless Surge Rattles Mexico

Today, Mexico hit a grim milestone – 50K deaths.

Highlights...

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1. While the surge in Mexico has been relentless since early- June, it has reached almost a horrific level in July/August. Though the daily cases averaged 2,305 in May, the average jumped to 4,514 in June and a whopping 6,395 in July. The linear slope of the 7-day moving average trendline confirms the massive surge.

2. Daily deaths moved up in tandem with the everyday cases. The daily death toll averaged 260 in May, more than doubled to 595 in June, and drove further higher to 615 since then. Since June, the daily deaths exceeded horrific 800 instances on twelve different occasions. Had the reporting been more consistent on weekends, the spikes would have been more multi-modal. The trendline, however, demonstrates the sharp rise in June and July.

3. Though the slope in the above aggregate regression graph is almost perfectly linear, the recent death trend has been slightly up-sloping, posing more threat to the vulnerable population, considering Mexico has one of the worst testing records in Latin America.

4. The slope in the above daily regression graph remains linear, except at the curve's outer end, confirming the threat mentioned above in the short-run. The daily regression scatter produces a much tighter fit, with a higher r-squared value, without the handful of outliers resulting from inconsistent reporting on weekends.

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5. The above table shows how Mexico stacks up against its hardest-hit Latin American neighbors. By now, it's an open secret that Mexico has been registering the highest death rate in Latin America and also has one of the highest death rates globally. Though Latin America, in general, has some of the highest positivity rates in the world, Mexico, Bolivia, and Honduras, in particular, have astronomically high rates in the '40s. 

Additionally, Mexico has the worst testing credentials among these countries.

Stay safe!

Data Sources:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic_in_Mexico

-Sid Som

homequant@gmail.com

Coronavirus Pandemic – The State of Ohio has been Rapidly Resurging

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1. Though the state of Ohio peaked and tapered in mid-June, the trend quickly reversed in late-June, starting an extraordinary resurgence by eclipsing the original highs set in April and May. While the daily cases averaged 543 in June, the average more than doubled in July to a whopping 1,270. The 7-day moving average trendline confirms the massive resurgence.

2. Daily deaths moved up in tandem with the everyday cases. The regression graph makes it amply clear that the death toll has started spiking after flattening in the middle of the curve (May/June). Had the reporting been more consistent on weekends, the spikes would have been more multi-modal. However, the trendline demonstrates the reversal at the outer end of the curve (July/August).

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3. The death rate in Ohio has not only stabilized but has also fallen below some of its surrounding neighbors, particularly Pennsylvania and Michigan. Moreover, its testing credentials are worse than most of its neighbors. Though its positivity rate is still below the national average, it will start inching up with increased testing.

To flatten the resurging curve, Ohio needs to re-introduce more stringent mitigation measures, including a more careful multi-phase re-opening of schools, religious institutions, theme parks, and indoor amusement centers.

Stay safe!

Data Sources:
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic_in_Ohio

-Sid Som
homequant@gmail.com
  

Coronavirus Pandemic – Romania has been Surging alongside other Central European Countries

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1. Despite having escaped a major outbreak alongside the original hard-hit European countries, Romania has been experiencing an unexpected surge since mid-July. While daily cases averaged 257 in June, the average more than doubled in July to 771 and has continued into August. The 7-day moving average trendline confirms the steadily-rising surge.

2. Daily deaths moved up in tandem with the everyday cases. The daily death toll averaged 13 in June, rapidly climbing to 22 in July. On ten different occasions in July, the daily deaths exceeded 25 instances. The trendline also demonstrates the sharp rise in July.

3. Though the slope in the aggregate regression graph (top) is linear, the slope in the daily graph (bottom) has already transformed exponentially, which poses a significant threat in the short-run. The regression of daily cases without the handful of outliers produces a much tighter fit, with a higher r-squared value. 

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4. The above table shows how Romania stacks up against its neighbors. Though its death rate has been steadily rising, its positivity rate has remained stable. However, even after six months into the pandemic in Europe, it's hard to believe it has been registering only 67K testing credentials. As it increases its testing, the cases and positivity are expected to escalate.  

Stay safe!

Data Sources:
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic_in_Romania

-Sid Som
homequant@Qgmail.com

Coronavirus Pandemic – July was an Awful Month for the USA

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1. The US has been experiencing an extraordinary surge due to the considerable escalation in the Sunbelt. While daily cases averaged 27,990 in June, the average more than doubled in July to a whopping 61,148. The 5-day moving average trendline confirms the massive surge.

2. Daily deaths moved up in tandem with the everyday cases. The daily death toll averaged a 636 in June, rapidly climbing to 808 in July. On ten different occasions in July, the daily deaths exceeded horrific 1,000 instances. Had the reporting been more consistent in the weekends, the spikes would have been more multi-modal. The trendline, however, demonstrates the sharp rise in July.

3. The slope in the regression graph is not only exponential, but the angle is also tilting up. Although the growth rate started declining in mid-June, the trend suddenly reversed in July, thus bumping up the slope from the prior linear to the exponential. This reversal, primarily brought about by the Sunbelt, has caused significant concerns at the CDC and local public health professionals.

4. Though the US death rate has steadily declined, falling below the worldwide average, its positivity rate has been inching up. Of course, this spike could very well result from the increased testing, which has lately been logging in at 180K (per million people). The US's testing credentials are second only to Russia's.

5. At the beginning of June, New York and New Jersey spearheaded the total cases, while Texas and Florida occupied the seventh and eighth positions. Now, California, Florida, and Texas top the list. Unfortunately, Arizona, Florida, Georgia, and Texas, the four hard-hit Sunbelt states have been registering very high positivity rates, causing serious concerns for the local hospitals.

Data Sources: 
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic_in_the_United_States

Stay safe!

-Sid Som
homequant@gmail.com