How to read the Coronavirus Stats between the lines – Updated 03-21-2020

Source: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
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Paula, a Research Analyst with a Master's in Public Health, is attending the final interview for a Senior Health Care Analyst position. Here is the simulation of the interview:

The company EVP was there to welcome her, "Paula, congratulations on reaching the final phase of the hiring process. We started off with 25 best and brightest. You are now one of the final four. What an achievement! Whether you are the final one or not, you will always be respected here as a champion, a true champion indeed. I stopped by to welcome you back. Now, the interviewers will take over from here. Good Luck."

Question # 1
Interviewer: This interview concentrates on the on-going Coronavirus pandemic that has been terrorizing the world, including the US. A few days ago, the WHO. announced an overall death rate of 3.40%. Unfortunately, as of this afternoon, the death rate has climbed to 4.27%. How did they go wrong with their initial assessment?

Paula: WHO does not front-run the curve. Since the initial rate was computed strictly off of the early stage data, that was nothing but an initial assessment. We cannot hang our hats on that rate. Unfortunately, that rate will continue to climb. In fact, during the SARS outbreak, WHO's initial rate was proven to be much lower than the actual. As a public health professional, I read such numbers as initial stats, not as leading indicators. They will continue to revise their stats as they get to crunch the new data points.        

Question # 2
Interviewer: When only the closed-out cases are evaluated, the death rate now jumps to 12%, from the last week's 6%. Which one would you use and why?

Paula: Well, they serve two different purposes. The overall rate is for the public at large as it is easy to understand and report. The rate based on the closed-out cases is for the public health professionals. In fact, it is the real rate as it makes true apples-to-apples comparison. It does not make much scientific sense to compare deaths with the total cases as the latter comprise new cases as well. 

Question # 3
Interviewer: Do you expect this high death rate to continue for some time or it's just one-time explosion?

Paula: It's going to continue. I suspect the rate will go a few points higher before it starts to taper off. China's low rate of 4% is still keeping the average down. At this point, China still accounts for roughly 27% of the total cases. Once it goes down to under 20%, the death rate will spike again. 

Question # 4
Interviewer: Even a few days ago, the recovery rate was above 40%. Now it has fallen to 31%. What do you think is contributing to this sharp and significant decline in the recovery rate?

Paula: The obvious reason is the sharp rise in death rate. If you look at the graph showing the daily breakdown, you will notice the death rate curve was more or less linear until March 4, following which the slope has become completely exponential. Around that time, the epicenter moved from China to outside of China, and the epidemic burst into a global pandemic. Until March 4, China's high recovery rate was contributing to the overall high recovery rate. Going forward, as China's stats become less of a controlling factor, the recovery rate will continue to decline.

Data Source: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
Click on the image to enlarge

Question # 5

Interviewer: Though South Korea has 8,800 cases, they have the lowest death rate of 1.16%. Given that, shouldn't we expect to see a high recovery rate such as China's? 

Paula: We have inadequate data here so I won't be able to give a professional opinion on it. I need to see the active cases broken down into at least two categories: non-critical and critical cases. Yes, their recovery rate has been markedly lower than China's.   

Question # 6

Interviewer: Analyze the numbers related to Italy.

Paula: With a death rate twice the worldwide average and a low recovery rate, they are perhaps the worst victim of this on-going carnage. In fact, while studying the numbers for Italy yesterday I found that their death rate in closed-out cases has been a whopping 44%. They are in dire straits. 

Question # 7
Interviewer: What do you suggest we do to help Italy out of this tragic situation?

Paula: Italy is running out of time and options so they need military help from the global powers, especially militarily-strong countries like China, India, Russia and the US. Given China's current situation, their role could be advisory but they have the right expertise now. We need to call our Representatives in Washington DC and make this case to them. We need to act fast to avoid a much larger human tragedy, potentially a human catastrophe. 

Question # 8
Interviewer: The US picture is also deteriorating by the day. What suggestions would you offer to our President?

Paula: I will offer both long-term and short-term solutions to the President. The long-term solutions: In order to avoid future situations like this, I would ask him to introduce "Universal Basic Income" for all adults, cancel issuance of the new H1-B visas for 3-5 years starting 4-2020, and start phasing out the income tax and replace it with middle-class friendly progressive consumption taxes. In terms of short-term solutions, I would suggest at least four measures: (a) Free $1,000 monthly checks to all adults for six months, (b) Postpone the April 15 income tax filing deadline for six months, not three months (c) Student loan repayment holiday for six months without any interest and penalty, and (d) Any uninsured person requiring hospitalization due to the Coronavirus must be allowed total medical payment waiver. 

Question # 9
Interviewer: Though NYS has close to 11,700 confirmed cases, its cases are growing by leaps and bounds. What advice would you give to the Governor?

Paula: Governor Cuomo needs to shut down the NYC Subway system immediately. I take the NYC Subway everyday so I know how it could add to the woes. Additionally, the Governor should postpone the NYS income tax deadline by six months, waive all sales taxes for a while and double the NYS child care credit. Again, I like to come back to emphasize the situation in Italy. NYS' situation is nowhere as dire as Italy's. Italy is sitting on a ticking time bomb. The global community must pay immediate attention to Italy, or else we will rewrite the horrors of Pompeii all over again, with a much larger human catastrophe.

- Sid Som, MBA, MIM    
President, Homequant
homequant@gmail.com

Also read:
The Initial Interview
Universal Basic Income     
Phasing out Income Tax