Coronavirus Outbreak – Saudi Arabia and UAE have Peaked; Kuwait and Qatar haven't

Highlights...

1. Though Kuwait has a very low death rate, it has a high positivity of 9%. Unfortunately, a rich country like Kuwait still does not have good testing credentials, considering it has a large migrant population living in congested housing. Recently, it showed a false negative for three days, following which the curve moved right back up, re-testing the prior daily highs.

2. Qatar, another rich country in the region, is nowhere close to where it should be right now. Unfortunately, after each retracement, the country faced newer and bigger surges, overtaking the prior daily highs. It has one of the highest per capita cases at 19,783 versus Kuwait's 6,341 which itself is quite high. The most tragic issue Qatar has been facing is the extremely high positivity rate of 26%, meaning every fourth person being tested turns out positive. This country also has a large migrant population so the need to extend the tests to that population is clear and present. 

3. Though Saudi Arabia has one of the lowest per capita cases at 2,452, it also has the most abysmal per capita testing record at 23,666, as compared to that of UAE at 213,608. Additionally, it has a high positivity rate of 10%. On the positive side, it has been tapering fast. Saudi Arabia's economy runs off the expatriates and migrant laborers, so it is critical that it increases testing at a rapid pace before a second wave takes over the country.   

4. The UAE is the only country in the region with 2M+ test credentials, translating to a per capita rate at 213,608, which is also one of the highest in the world. It also has the lowest positivity rate of 2%. Since it peaked in mid-May, it has been steadily declining. It needs to extend its testing to its large migrant population, both symptomatic and asymptomatic, to avoid having to fear a second wave in cooler months ahead.

Stay safe!

Data Source: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

-Sid Som
homequant@gmail.com

Coronavirus Outbreak – Brazil's Meteoric Rise will become a Case Study in Epidemiology

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Considering the meteoric rise in cases and related death tolls in the last 30 days, the coronavirus outbreak in Brazil will arguably become a case study in epidemiology. Today (5/30), Brazil experienced a massive 30,102 cases, far surpassing the USA's 23,290 cases.

Highlights...

1. The outbreak in Brazil was quite delayed relative to Europe and USA. On 3/15, Brazil had only 200 cases and no deaths, while the US already had 160,686 cases and 2,985 deaths. In Europe, Italy had 24,747 cases and 1,809 deaths, while the cases in Spain and France were on the rise. 

2. On 5/22, Brazil's total cases of 330,890 eclipsed its European counterparts, including the front-running Russia with 326,448. Italy, Spain and the UK were left far behind. Of course, the death toll of Brazil was still behind those of Italy and the UK. 

3. On 5/30, the combination of Brazil's cases and deaths skyrocketed to 498K and 28K, respectively. In last 30 days alone (4/30 to 5/30), the caseload jumped a whopping 484%, while Russia experienced a sizable escalation of 272%. Italy, Spain and the UK continued to flat-line.

4. Though Brazil has a poor testing record thus far with 930K, as compared to Russia's 10.3M, it has an astronomically high positivity rate of 54%. The rates of the four European counterparts have ranged between 4 to 8%, while the US has a higher rate of 10.5%.

5. Of course, amid all this doom and gloom, there is a clear silver lining for Brazil. While Spain, Italy and the UK are faced with high death rates of 10 to 14%, Brazil has been registering a much lower death rate at 6%. Russia's reported death rate of 1% must be taken with a grain of salt.

Stay safe!

Data Source: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

-Sid Som
homequant@gmail.com
   

How the Coronavirus Outbreak has Impacted the Stock Market

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The coronavirus outbreak jolted the stock markets around the world to an extent not seen since the Great Depression. 

The resulting volatility, both in terms of price changes and spikes in trading volume was historic. The resulting change in price and volume was more or less inverse, meaning as the prices tumbled, trading volumes skyrocketed, as evidenced by the above two graphs.

Highlights...

1. The weekly price graph shows that the Dow Jones average peaked during the week of 2/5, hitting a weekly  high of 29,276, although the daily intraday high of 29,569 occurred only on 2/12. This deviation between the daily and weekly occurs due to the averaging of the weekly prices. During this time period, the outbreak was still an epidemic, confined primarily in one central province in China.

2. The week of 3/18 saw the fastest collapse in Dow Jones history, as well as in other broader market averages. The weekly average swooned to 20,705, though the intraday low of 18,214 occurred on 2/23, on the heels of the talks of a wide range of restrictions from the CDC and White House.      

3. After having hit the low, the market quickly turned around. Initially, it was a V-shaped recovery, with the market shooting up nearly 5,000 points in a mere three weeks. During the week of 4/8, the Dow Jones average made a meteoric rise to 23,950 (with an intraday high of 24,009 on 4/9). This recovery was on the back of a historic stimulus package to help consumers and businesses tide over an anticipated lockdown to arrest the spread of the outbreak.

4. Though the recovery of the stock market has continued through the last trading week in May, the slope of the Dow Jones average has flattened to a U-shape from the prior V-shape. Since then the average has regained another 1,800 points, settling at 25,400 on 5/28, with the intraday high reaching 25,759. This rise occurred following the taper of the outbreak in New York City, which was the epicenter of the US outbreak for over six weeks, destroying nearly 3,000 lives thus far.

5. The bottom graph shows the Dow Jones' weekly trading volumes. During the week of 3/18, when the average made a 4-year low, the volume spiked to 4.1B, which was three times higher than the normal weekly average. The two graphs show the perfect inverse relationship between the week average value and the trading volume. Then, as the average started to recover, the volume waned, falling back to the normal 1B level again.

Stay safe!

Data Sources: 

https://finance.yahoo.com/

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

-Sid som

homequant@gmail.com

    

Coronavirus Outbreak – 41M Unemployed in 10 Weeks

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The above data table shows how the coronavirus outbreak has impacted the job market. The weekly jobless claims data are a better indicator of the job market than the monthly unemployment data as the former shows the actual jobless claims data rather than the survey data. 

Highlights...

The lockdown resulting from the pandemic has forced employers to lay off a historic 40.8 million full-time employees in a mere ten weeks, between 3/21 and 5/23.   

During the same 10-week period, the number of coronavirus infections skyrocketed from 23,710 to 1,612,018 -- a whopping 6700% escalation. The rise in death toll was more horrific, going from a mere 301 to 90,821; the percentile increase simply beggars description. 

Lately, the death rate (the ratio of number of deaths to number of infections) has stabilized at around 5.6%.

Though nearly 41 million jobs have been lost in such a short period of time, the recent trend shows a steady decline. After having peaked at 6.867M on 3/28, the most recent weekly jobless figure stands at 2.123M. 

At this declining rate, the next weekly figure is expected to be well under the 2M threshold, hopefully leading to 0.5M by the end of June.

The regression graph depicts a linear declining trend. Now that the states have withdrawn or relaxed the lockdown restrictions and businesses are re-opening at a steady pace, the employment picture will gradually improve. 

Of course, since the re-opening of businesses will largely depend on the immediate availability of manpower, we have to wait and see if the withdrawal of restrictions was medically conforming or was politically hastened.      

Stay safe!

Data Sources: 
US Department of Labor 
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic_in_the_United_States

-Sid Som
homequant@gmail.com

Coronavirus Outbreak – A Somber Day in US History

May 27, 2020 will be recorded in the US history as one of the most tragic and heartrending dates. On this day, the death toll, due to the coronavirus pandemic, crossed the somber 100K milestone. 

According to the above graphics, the outbreak thus far has triggered 1.745M cases and claimed 102,065 innocent lives. Of course, out of the 589,903 (34%) closed cases, 487,838 (83%) have recovered, which definitely is the silver lining amid this global tragedy.

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The above table shows that the US's highest death toll is followed by the UK at 37.5K, Italy at 33K, France at 28.6K, Spain at 27.1K and Brazil at 25.6K. Germany, Iran, Canada, India, Turkey, Peru and Russia are also hard hit, having lost 4K to 8K people to this pandemic. 
   
Though the worldwide death rate has been 6.2%, France, Italy and the UK have suffered very high casualty rates at 15.6%, 14.3% and 14.0%, respectively. Spain and Canada have experienced above average death rates, too.

While USA, Russia, Peru, India and Brazil have been struggling with high active case rates, Germany, Iran, Turkey, Spain, Italy and Canada have maintained their recovery rates above the much-needed 50% threshold.  

Lately, Brazil has been experiencing an astronomical positivity rate at 47%, meaning almost every other case has been turning out to be positive. Iran, Peru, France and USA are also seeing double digit positivity.

Though India still has one of the lowest per capita caseloads, death tolls and positivity rates, its risk level has been rapidly rising; for instance, on 4/27, it had 29,451 cases and 939 deaths. Today, it has recorded 158,086 cases and 4,534 deaths -- a fivefold increase in both categories, in a mere 30 days.   

In order to pay homage to these first 100K martyrs, the US government should consider annexing a new memorial at the Arlington Cemetery, with their names inscribed in letters of gold. They didn't deserve to die!  

Stay safe!

Data Source: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

-Sid Som
homequant@gmail.com

Coronavirus Outbreak – Some Awkward Death Stats are Raising Data Suspicions

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Using the Incoming data

The fact that the coronavirus outbreak in the US is already 3-months old provides for enough data liquidity at the state and national level, at least for the hard-hit states in the nation, allowing some advanced national and global public health policy analyses, mitigation modeling and AI and robotic solutions. 

Additionally, due to the easy access to the data (almost all states are uploading the daily data for general consumption), even healthcare analysts at the local governments are able to readily analyze and compare the city-and-county-level stats with the competing geo-demographic clusters to zero in on the deviations and the underlying reasons, leading to a set of emerging local and regional public heath care solutions. 


Comparing the Hard-hit States

The above data table shows the hard-hit 16 states, with at least 30K total cases. New York was the epicenter of the US outbreak in March and April, with 22% of the total cases and nearly 30% of total deaths, followed by New Jersey with 9 and 11%, respectively. Both of these states have faced very high positivity rates. Illinois, California and Massachusetts are next in line with at least 90K cases. All of these states are still struggling with high active caseloads. 

Given the severity of the outbreak, New York had to significantly intensify the symptomatic testing, especially the greater NYC area. It has, therefore, the best per capita testing credentials, followed by Massachusetts, Louisiana, New Jersey, Connecticut and Illinois. New York and New Jersey have the highest per capita death tolls as well.


Possible Data Inconsistency

While New York, New Jersey, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Connecticut have 7 to 9% death rates, Texas, California, Georgia, Florida, etc. have unusually low death rates, despite having large minority and immigrant populations that are proven to be the ones most at risk of Covid-19.

These polarized events resulting from the death rate mismatch are raising serious suspicions among the vast majority of public healthcare professionals regarding the accuracy, if not the authenticity, of the data being released. Given this rising suspicion about the data, going forward it will be difficult for them to accept such data without an independent audit. Already, Georgia has accepted a serious failure in data construct, while Florida has been under pressure for removing its original GIS analyst who was the architect of the application interfacing externally.

Stay safe!

Data Source: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

-Sid Som
homequant@gmail.com

Coronavirus Outbreak – The On-going Resurgence in Florida

While Florida's outbreak peaked in early April and completely tapered in late April, it has resurged in May. As of 5/25, the number of confirmed cases stood at 51,746 and the death toll at 2,252. Over 55% of the cases and deaths occurred in three southeastern counties in the state: Miami-Dade, Broward and Palm Beach.

Highlights...

1. The top graph of the daily cases shows how the initial peak and taper in early and late April were negated by multiple surges leading to a resurgence in May. The 5-day moving average trendline through the new surges is clearly upward sloping, confirming the on-going resurgence. This resurgence, by no means, indicates the onset of a second wave. It simply means a new peak and taper are in the offing.

2. The bottom graph of the daily deaths is somewhat different. It does not show an initial peak and taper; instead, it shows a multi-modal landscape with multiple peaks sideways followed by quick drop-offs. The 5-day moving average trendline is, therefore, flat-lining rather than upward sloping.

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3. Miami-Dade County is the epicenter of Florida's outbreak. The above data table shows that Miami-Dade County alone owns 33% of all cases and 28% of all deaths in the state. Due to the on-going surges, the active caseload still remains at a whopping 96%. To add more misery, Miami has the highest positivity rate in the state.

4. The outbreak in Miami has spilled over to its northern neighbors: Broward County and Palm Beach County. These two counties account for another 24% of all cases and 27% of all statewide deaths. The on-going resurgence has impacted their active cases as in Miami. Though their positivity rates are above the state (5.7%) and national (5.9%) averages, they are still below that of Miami.

5. Hillsborough (Tampa), Orange (Orlando), Lee (Ft. Myers), Duval (Jacksonville), Collier (Naples) and Pinellas (St. Petersburg/Clearwater) counties are also quite hard hit. Fortunately, they all have much lower death rates, though Collier has a high positivity rate.

Stay safe!

Data Sources:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic_in_Florida

-Sid Som

homequant@gmail.com

Coronavirus Outbreak – How are the US Islands holding up?

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Puerto Rico is the largest US island, with a population of 3.2M, followed by Hawaii with nearly 1.5M residents. These two islands have been hit hard by the coronavirus outbreak. Guam, Northern Mariana Islands and the US Virgin Islands are also impacted but not to the extent of Hawaii and Puerto Rico. 

Highlights...

1. Puerto Rico has already been hit with 3,189 cases and 127 deaths. Though its death rate at 4.0% is below the national average of 5.9%, it has a high active case rate at nearly 70%. Unfortunately, its positivity rate is extremely high at 25%, while the testing credentials are abysmal. 

2. Though Hawaii has one of the lowest death rates in the nation, its cases are on the rise. Fortunately, its positivity rate is very low, leading to a manageable active caseload at a 5.4%. It is also aggressively intensifying its testing efforts.

3. Since Guam already has a several outbreak-related deaths, it is on high alert. Though a small island, it has a high strategic value considering it hosts naval and air force bases for the nation. Due to the military bases, its testing stats are almost as good as that of Hawaii.

4. Despite a low caseload at 69, the US Virgin Islands has already encountered 6 fatalities, causing serious nervousness among residents and local authorities. In addition to a high death rate, its testing record thus far has been very poor. St. Croix also hosts the Air National Guard Station.   

5. The tiny Northern Mariana Islands has also been hit with 22 cases and 2 deaths. Fortunately, it has the lowest positivity rate among the US islands impacted by the outbreak. Due to its connection to the Andersen Air Force Base and Naval Base Guam, the testing has been proactive.

Puerto Rico's high positivity rate can be attributed to the fact that its testing is limited only to the seriously ill patients. It needs serious help with testing before the situation becomes totally out of control.

Stay safe!

Data Sources:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic_in_Puerto_Rico

-Sid Som

homequant@gmail.com 

Coronavirus Outbreak – Daily Cases in California Continue to Surge Higher

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Though California, along with the state of Washington, was one of the first victims of the coronavirus outbreak in the US, it still hasn't peaked. The number of daily cases continues to rise. Between 3/18 and 5/22, the total cases jumped from a mere 675 to 90,631 -- a massive 13,000% escalation.

Highlights...

1. The top graph clearly shows that the daily cases are still rising, without any signs of peaking yet. While the first peak on 4/22 was followed by a believable taper, it didn't last long. The month of May has been rough for California; several new peaks as strong as the first one changed the entire data landscape, making it a multi-modal data distribution.

2. Both trendlines -- the linear as well as the 7-day moving average -- are upward sloping, confirming that a real data peak has yet to be reached. Even the 7-day moving average, which is inherently flatter and smoother than the 3-to-5 day averages (more appropriate for a shorter time series like this), shows a clear upward trend as well.      

3. The daily death graph (bottom) has the similar multi-modal data distribution. Unfortunately, the sudden drop-off after each short-lived peak has triggered false negatives. Therefore, a steady taper for 7 to 10 days will be needed to confirm a real peak, going forward.

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4. The above county-wise summary table reveals that Los Angeles (LA) County alone owns 48% of all cases and an even higher death toll at 56%. Unfortunately, LA County received disproportionately lower testing at 27%, while it continues to record the highest positivity rate in the state. 

5. The other four Southern California counties -- San Diego, Riverside, Orange and San Bernardino -- account for another 25% of all cases and 23% of the overall death toll. Fortunately, their positivity rates are lower than that of the LA County. 

Given the large immigrant population in LA County, it needs to significantly increase testing immediately, especially targeting the symptomatic undocumented population as they often are unwilling to come forward. 

Stay safe!

Data Sources: 
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic_in_California

-Sid Som
homequant@gmail.com

Coronavirus Outbreak – The South American Countries have yet to Peak

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The seven hard-hit South American countries -- Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Columbia, Ecuador and Peru -- have yet to peak. In fact, they continue to register new highs. Of course, the outbreak in South America has followed the outbreak in the US.

Since Brazil, the hardest-hit in South America with 330K cases and 21K deaths thus far, has recently been discussed in a prior blog post, Peru becomes the sample in this blog post, representing the aforesaid countries.

Highlights...

1. The top graph shows that the daily cases are still upward trending, making new highs at every 3 to 4-day intervals. In fact, only yesterday (5/21) Peru was hit with the highest number of daily cases at 4,749, with no signs of peaking yet.

2. While at the beginning of April, Peru's 10-day average daily cases stood at a mere 466, the same average for the most recent 10 days (5/12 - 5/21) has skyrocketed to 3,995, a whopping 9X increase.

3. The bottom graph showing the daily death tolls is no different either. It's also an upward sloping one with new highs every so often. On 5/18, Peru registered its highest daily death toll so far at 141. Again, given the current trend, it shows no signs of peaking yet.      

4. Though at the beginning of April Peru's 10-day average daily death tolls stood at 12, it has jumped to 119 for the most recent 10 days (5/12 - 5/21) -- a heart-breaking 10X increase.

5. Both moving average trendlines are steadily upward sloping as well, confirming the incoming daily data points. Even the 7-day moving averages (not shown) exhibit the same upward trend, but are obviously smoother.

Unfortunately, these South American countries have very poor testing credentials so far, leading to this gigantic mess.

Stay safe!

Data Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic_in_Peru

-Sid Som
homequant@gmail.com
  

Coronavirus Outbreak – Is Iran in the Midst of a 2nd Wave?

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Iran was one of the original victims of the pandemic. While Iran peaked towards the end of March (3/25 - 3/31), the earliest victims in Europe (Italy, Spain and France) did not peak until late April. 

At the peak, Iran was hit with 3K +/- cases daily for seven consecutive days. After hitting a peak at 3,186 on 3/30, the daily cases steadily declined to 802 on 5/2. Unfortunately, in May, the trend abruptly reversed direction and started swinging back up quite sharply. The reversal thus far has not been a 'sharp-V' but it resembles at least a 'wide-V' which, nonetheless, poses a significant threat to its vulnerable population.

Even its daily death toll peaked around the same time as its daily infections, but started flattening in early April. For instance, after having peaked at 158 on 4/4, the daily death toll steadily went down to 47 on 5/3, following which it has trended back to 60's and 70's. 

The fact that the daily new cases, of late, have been consistently registering above 2K (e.g., 2,346 on 5/20 and 2,392 on 5/21) is of serious concern. 

The top bar graph makes it abundantly clear that Iran has already been hit with a second wave. It is a renewed trend, not just some outlier 2-3 day spikes. 

The regression graph (bottom) provides a silver lining: The outer end of the curve has forked, indicating that the new death rate is not as vicious as the first breakout. 

Stay safe!

Data Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic_in_Iran

-Sid Som
homequant@gmail.com

Coronavirus Outbreak – How the Southwestern States are Faring vis-a-vis Mexico

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The definition of what constitutes Southwest USA (or Southwestern states) varies quite a bit. Though parts of California and Texas are usually included in most definitions, they have been ignored because data proration by county lines can be very subjective.

1. Though Arizona is the largest Southwestern state by population, Colorado has the highest number of cases and death toll, paving the way for the worst per capita stats as well, followed by Oklahoma and Nevada. Utah has the lowest death rate at 1.2%. Mexico "with a population of 129M" has 54,346 cases and 5,666 deaths. Thus, Mexico's death rate at 10.4% far exceeds those of the Southwestern states, as well the US national average at 6.0%. 

2. The silver lining for Mexico has been its very low active case rate at 21%, while Arizona has a whopping 95%, followed by Colorado's 88% and New Mexico's 69%. Amazingly, Oklahoma has been registering at a mere 17%. On a national level, Mexico's active case rate is far below the US national rate at 71%. 

3. New Mexico has been leading its Southwestern neighbors in per capita tests at 67,839/million, followed by Utah at 56,041. Again, Colorado has been recording at the tail-end of the curve at 22,893, far below the US national average at 43,378. Mexico's testing credentials are obviously dismal: Total tests at 185,755 and per capita at 1,442.

4. In fact, the issue that is currently plaguing Mexico the most is its high positivity rate at 29.3%. Let's just hope that the numerator and denominator comprising the ratio are mutually exclusive. Unfortunately, Colorado also has a high rate at 17.1%, whereas the other Southwestern states have much lower rates than the US national average at 11.3%.

5. Finally, let's compute a Southwest composite in each category (off of these six states) and compare them to those of Mexico. First of all, SW's low death composite at 4.8% is far below Mexico's 10.4%. Secondly, SW's 7.0% positivity composite is a bargain compared to Mexico's 29.3%. Thirdly, SW's testing composites are far superior to Mexico's figures. Last but not least, Mexico's active case rate at 21% is far more manageable than SW's composite at 69%.

Mexico, along with its other Central American counterparts, has some of the worst testing credentials in the world. They need to up the ante fast before the outbreak goes totally out of control.

Stay safe!

Data Source: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

-Sid Som
homequant@gmail.com
  

Coronavirus Outbreak – Why Germany's Active Case Rate is so much lower than its Neighbors

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By now, we all know that the hard-hit countries in Europe have some of the highest death rates (death toll to total confirmed cases). Germany, however, has bucked the trend with its exceptionally low death rate.

Though Portugal currently has a lower death rate than Germany, it has a very large active caseload which, unfortunately, will start to push the death rate higher in the near future.

Russia, on the other hand, has been left out given its delayed surge. Russia has yet to peak, while the countries listed above have not only peaked but are also tapering fast. Russia may be added to the list in the next go-around. 

Though Germany has the second highest population in Europe (after Russia), it has the lowest per capita cases (2,123/million) among the most populous countries. Also, the reason it has the lowest rate of positivity at 5.6%, despite having achieved a much lower testing average than Spain, Italy and the UK, is that it was very proactive from the onslaught of the outbreak in identifying and testing the most vulnerable segments of the population. France, Italy, Spain and the UK were very reactive, at best, at the outset.

Amid high death rates of 10 to 16% among the populous nations, Germany's 4.6% is simply exemplary. Its per capita death rate is one of the lowest in Europe. Belgium "with a population of 12M" has a higher death toll than that of Germany. Again, Germany managed to keep the death rate that low due to its very progressive approach to testing. 

The combination of low positivity and low death rates has been contributing to Germany's low active case rate as well. As of now, it has only 14K active cases versus France's 90K and Italy's 65K. In fact, its 7.8% active case rate is second only to Switzerland's 3.4%, which has a population of 9M.

Now that Germany has a better handle on the active caseload, it needs to significantly increase testing. One of its immediate targets should be to test the entire population of recent migrants.

Stay safe!

Data Source: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

-Sid Som
homequant@gmail.com

Coronavirus Outbreak – North African Countries have the Lowest Cases. Is it the Extreme Heat?

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The countries in North Africa have some of the lowest (relative to the population) coronavirus cases in the world. Equally compelling, they also have the lowest death rates. 

Then, could it be that this particular strain becomes less potent in extreme heat? 

Let's consider the current stats...

1. Egypt, the third largest country in the continent with a population of 102M, has the highest number of cases (12,764) and deaths (645) among the North African nations. To put this figure in proper perspective, let's compare it with Rhode Island, the smallest US state by area with a population of 1.06M, which has a total caseload of 12,795 along with 506 deaths. 

2. Algeria, with a population of 44M, has the second highest caseload of 7,201 and a death toll of 555 among the North African countries. Even the District of Columbia (DC) has a caseload of 7,270 and a death toll of 392.  

3. Morocco, with a population of 37M, has the third highest number of cases at 6,952 and a death toll of 192, translating to a death rate of 2.76%. Again, let's compare its stats to that of the DC. 

4. Nigeria, the largest country in Africa with a population of 205M, has the fourth highest number of cases in the North totaling 5,959 and a death toll of 182. New Mexico, one of our safest states thus far, has 6,096 cases and 270 deaths. All other countries in the North have cases lower than 3K.

5. Ethiopia, the second largest country in the continent by population, has a mere 352 cases with 5 deaths. Any town in the US would love to have such stats today.

All of these countries in North Africa have large cities that are popular tourist destinations as well, e.g., Addis Ababa, Algiers, Cairo, Casablanca, Lagos, Marrakesh, etc. so the populations there are almost as exposed to the foreign tourists as any other developing nation on earth.

So, is it the extreme heat that has been their saving grace?

Stay safe!

Data Source: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

-Sid Som
homequant@gmail.com
  

Coronavirus Outbreak – The Lesson We must Learn from Brazil

Brazil has been the epicenter of the South American coronavirus outbreak. Lately, it has been a heart-breaking saga, to say the least.

Brazil is in the Southern Hemisphere so autumn (3/20 to 6/20) is in full swing there. At the end of the summer on 3/19, Brazil had a mere 621 cases and 7 deaths so the world was not paying much importance to its outbreak, remaining more or less fixated on a handful of European countries, the-then-epicenter of the outbreak.

Unfortunately, the picture went upside down with the advent of autumn. Being aided by the onset of the autumn flu season, the outbreak got a massive lifeline, pushing the caseload from 621 to 233,142, in literally less than two months.    

The shortened table above shows how the total cases skyrocketed from 6,836 to 233,142 in just six weeks. During the same period, the death tolls went from 240 to 15,633, a horrific 6400% growth. Both growth rates have been accelerating in May. In last three days alone, the daily averages grew by 14,723 and 828, respectively.

The regression graph reveals a perfect collinearity between the total number of cases and the resulting death tolls. This perfect relationship also provides a silver lining in mitigating its death tolls. 

Brazil, thus far, has a much worse record of per capita testing (3,462) vis-a-vis Chile (19,035) and Peru (19,767), the other hard-hit countries in the continent. Likewise, while Brazil has a death rate of 6.71%, Chile and Peru have 1.03% and 2.87%, respectively. 

Following in the footsteps of its continental neighbors, Brazil must intensify its proactive testing of the symptomatic population, promptly isolating the infected from the non-infected. The horror will continue if they remain reactive, meaning waiting for the sick to show up at the emergency rooms. The early detection is the key and they have to have more boots on the ground.    

Finally, those of us in the Northern Hemisphere must learn from the Brazil saga as it could be our forward scenario. We need to greatly increase testing before our flu season starts in October. 

Stay safe!

Data Sources: 
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic_in_Brazil

-Sid Som
homequant@gmail.com