New York State – Tests Administered versus Percent Tested Positive

Highlights...

1. Between 04/01 and 04/29, out of the 679,700 (average 23,438/day) coronavirus tests that the state of New York performed, 220,660 (average 7,609/day) turned out to be positive, meaning roughly 33% were tested positive. 

2. Considering that the tests were restricted to the symptomatic cases in New York, the positive rate was understandably high -- much higher than the national average of 17.25%.

3. However, when the daily data were split into two competing halves -- 04/01 to 04/15 vs. 04/16 to 04/29 -- the average rates (of those tested positive) were significantly different: the first half showing at 42% while the ongoing second half at 23.4%, although the test totals were fairly close. 

4. This large difference leads us to believe that NYS, of late, has relaxed the testing requirements from "acute" to "probable" cases leading to the lower rates. The data table depicts how the daily % positive has steadily declined from 48% to under 20% in recent days.

5. New York needs to do a more consistent job in using its testing resources. The daily totals are showing a random dance pattern, ranging between 15K and 28K (outliers excluded), proving that they can easily achieve at least 25K daily with the existing resources.

Stay safe:

Data Source:
NYS DOH COVID-19 Tracker

-Sid Som
homequant@gmail.com  

Analyzing Coronavirus Stats – the European Case – 04/29/2020 Update

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Highlights...


1. Total Cases -- The above table shows the hardest-hit European countries, those with at least 20K cases. Italy, Spain, France, UK and Germany have peaked as their new cases, based on 2-day moving averages, have been trending down. Spain remains at the top of the European list with 237K cases, followed by Italy, France, UK and Germany with 204K, 166K, 165K and 161K cases, respectively. Since Russia's surge has been more recent, in the last 10 days its cases have more than doubled. Belgium and the Netherlands have also experienced significant jumps in caseloads.

2. Deaths -- Though some of these European countries have been continuing in the 10-15% range, the UK and Belgium have hit an alarming 16% death rate. Fortunately, Germany, Switzerland, Portugal and Ireland have significantly lower death rates in 4 to 6% ranges, well below the worldwide average of 7%. Obviously, it's too premature to talk about Russia's death rate due to its more recent surge.

3. Recovery -- Given the asymmetric outbreak across Europe, the country-wise recovery rates are all over the map, with Germany and Switzerland in the mid-'70s while Sweden and Portugal are struggling with extremely low rates. Lately, Ireland and Spain started showing some improvements, but Belgium, France and Italy are still stuck in 20's and 30's. Again, the Russian situation is still evolving so its recovery rate remains unpredictable at this point.  

4. Active Cases -- Switzerland and Germany have been keeping the active caseloads more manageable than the rest. Ireland and Spain are showing improvements as well. It's good to see that the active rates of Belgium, Italy and France have already fallen below the worldwide average of 62%. As expected, the countries with more recent surge, especially Portugal and Russia, have been dealing with very high active rates. 

5. Tests and Positive Cases -- Russia is the only European country to have administered well over 3M tests, followed by Germany (2.5M), Italy (1.9M) and Spain (1.4M). France has the highest positive test rate at 36% while Belgium and UK are registering in the low 20's. Sweden, Netherlands and Spain are showing up in upper teens as well. As usual, Germany, Portugal, Switzerland, Italy and Ireland are showing green shoots, with significantly lower positives. The reason Russia has a very low rate is that its tests might include a part of the asymptomatic population. In terms of the normalized rates (per million populations), Germany, Ireland, Italy, Portugal, Spain and Switzerland are well ahead of the rest with 30K testing rates. Due to the paucity of test kits worldwide, most countries are zeroing in on the symptomatic populations only.  

Stay safe!

Data Source: 
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ 



-Sid Som
homequant@gmail.com

Analysis of Coronavirus Outbreak in BRICS

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BRICS is the acronym representing five countries: Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa. South Africa was later added to the original BRIC, forming the present day BRICS.

Coronavirus Pandemic Highlights...

1. Though it all started in China, Russia is faced with the highest number of cases (94K) amongst BRICS, followed by China with 83K. Despite a large population of 1.35B, India has done an excellent job in controlling the pandemic, while South Africa has been very successful, too. Of course, since China, India and Russia are going into the hot summer months, their immediate risks are more limited than that of Brazil and South Africa in the Southern Hemisphere where the autumn is in full swing. 

2. In addition to the spiking caseloads, Brazil is also faced with a high death rate. If the high-allergy autumn months are further contributing to Brazil's increased misery, the Northern Hemisphere countries must pay attention to it. Russia's intensified testing is perhaps paying off, as reflected in its lower death rate. India's aggressive lockdown is praiseworthy, too. 

3. Considering Russia's surge has been more recent, its low recovery rate is quite understandable. China's coronavirus stats have been as unreliable as its 94% recovery rate. Brazil and South Africa have above average recoveries, while India has been lagging.      

4. Again, given the recency of the surge, Russia has a high active caseload. Though India has a high active case rate, the actual load seems manageable. Brazil and South Africa's rates are lower than the worldwide average.

5. The problem Brazil is facing is its high "positive" rate: every fifth test is proving positive. Russia, India and South Africa have much lower positive rates. Russia's intensified testing will prove more effective down the road. India has been compensating for its limited testing capability with aggressive and extended lockdowns. 

Since Brazil and South Africa are  already in the middle of autumn and going into winter, the countries in the Northern Hemisphere will be closely watching them as future test cases.

Stay safe:

Data Source:
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

-Sid Som
homequant@gmail.com

Analysis of Coronavirus Outbreak in Nordic/Scandinavia

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Highlights...

1. Of all the Nordic countries, Sweden is the only one to forego lockdown and to opt for very limited restrictions. On the other hand, Denmark, Finland and Norway opted for meaningful lockdowns. Sweden is, therefore, paying the price, with infection caseloads two to fourfold higher than its neighbors. 

2. Unlike its Nordic neighbors, Sweden has been experiencing very high real and normalized (per million populations) deaths rates. Its 12% death rate is comparable to the other hard-hit European countries like Spain, Italy, France and the UK. The death rates of the other three countries are significantly below the worldwide average of 6.9%. Norway's 2.7% rate is phenomenal.

3. Since the outbreak in Scandinavia has occurred more recently than the outbreaks in Italy and Spain, it's too premature to talk about its recovery rates. As expected, the recovery rates are all over the map, ranging between 0.4% and 68.5%. Moreover, it's becoming more and more apparent that lack of uniform guidelines is making the recovery rates increasingly unusable. Case in point: Though Norway has the lowest death rate of 2.7%, it also has the lowest recovery rate, at just 0.4% -- go figure!

4. Likewise, active cases are also all over the map, ranging between 27 and 97%. Given the symmetric outbreak in the region, this wide disparity does not make much medical sense. Granted, there could be definitional or interpretational issues pertaining to the recovery rates; however, active cases must not pose such serious reporting disparities.

5. The combination of lack of restrictions upfront and limited testing might lead one to believe that Sweden might have opted for "herd immunity." As a rich Scandinavian country, Sweden's 9K per million testing (vs. Norway's 30K and Denmark's 27K) is simply baffling. Finland needs to intensify its testing as well.

Obviously, Sweden is far behind its Nordic as well as other advanced European counterparts like Austria, Germany, Ireland, Italy, Portugal and Switzerland -- all of whom have been boasting of at least 25K testing rates.      

Stay safe!

Data Source:
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

-Sid Som
homequant@gmail.com

Coronavirus – How does the New Lineup Look after NY and NJ?

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The lineup after New York and New Jersey is currently spearheaded by Massachusetts with 55K cases and followed by Illinois (44K), California (43K) and Pennsylvania (43K). Lately, Michigan has seen an explosion in new infections, and at this current pace, it is expected to overtake at least California later next week considering that the latter has tapered. Florida has also been gaining momentum.

Michigan is faced with an alarming death rate of 8.8%, way above the national average of 5.6%. Though Connecticut has the second highest direct death rate, it has the highest normalized rate (deaths per 1M population). Despite a large immigrant population, California has managed to keep its coronavirus fatalities low due to its aggressive restrictions. Also, the fact that California has a low normalized death rate further confirms the effectiveness of the restrictions in place. Though Louisiana and Massachusetts have high death rates (along with high normalized infection rates), the effects of their intensified testing will alleviate the immediate danger.  

Though Texas has the lowest death rate, it lags behind in testing, which is troublesome. Ohio also lags behind in testing, thus facing a more serious situation than that of Texas as it already has a much higher death rate. Given its demography, Florida needs to maintain its current restrictions at least thru 5/31, as well as significantly increase testing, otherwise its death rate could promptly spike above the national average. Illinois, California and Pennsylvania should follow Louisiana and Massachusetts' recent testing models.

The fact that the active caseloads remain very high (at 80-90%), with a high national average of 82%, points to two immediate needs: significant bump in testing and gradual loosening of restrictions in keeping with the CDC's new guidelines.

Stay safe!

Data Source:
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

-Sid Som
homequant@gmail.com   
    

Analysis of Coronavirus Outbreak in the Middle East

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Highlights

1. Iran and Turkey are the two hardest-hit countries in the Middle East. While Iran experienced the first major outbreak in the Middle East, Turkey has recently eclipsed Iran in total number of cases. Since these two countries have similar population sizes (80M+/-), the prima facie stats are comparable. Saudi Arabia, Israel, UAE and Qatar are also faced with sizeable caseloads.

2. Turkey has been doing a much better job than Iran in testing, thus keeping the death tolls well under the current worldwide average of 7.0%. Egypt and Iran have the highest death rates in Middle East. The economically advanced nations, including Saudi Arabia, UAE, Israel, Qatar, Bahrain, etc., have managed to maintain very low death rates.

3. Since the recovery rate is highly correlated with the timing of the surge, Iran demonstrates a higher recovery rate than that of Turkey. Israel's advanced medical system has helped them maintain a high recovery rate as well. Of course, one must accept Iran's recovery stats, like China's, with a grain of salt.

4. From the very first case, the UAE has been extremely proactive in testing, extending it to the asymptomatic population as well. In fact, the UAE, with a similar population size as that of Israel (9M+/-), has remained well ahead of Israel in testing, while Saudi Arabia has been lagging far behind its economically-advanced neighbors. Considering that Saudi Arabia is the home to Mecca and Medina, it has to deal with a very different set of logistics (e.g., Hajj) than its neighbors.

5. With a large population (100M+/-) the wild card right now is Egypt. The good news is, it had a late surge so it's not confronted with a zero-base model; it can borrow the knowledge-base from Iran and Turkey, especially in testing so it can meaningfully leverage its limited resources.

Stay safe!

Data Source:
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

-Sid Som
homequant@gmail.com  

Evaluating Scenarios and Outcomes Related to Re-opening the Economy

Since we are ready to open up the non-essential sectors of the economy, we must be prudent and act on the advice of our great CDC scientists -- instead of politicians worried about their electoral prospects in November -- to avoid having to walk into a much bigger disaster.

At this point, we have three basic choices...

1. Test Employed People and Let "Negatives" Return to Work -- Gradually open the economy by allowing only the employed folks, who also test negative, to return to work. Of course, given the size of this population, we need a well-thought-out segmentation plan backed by a risk-tolerant model (see my prior post below for details). This approach (green trendline) might quickly reduce the current 2,000+/- daily death toll to a projected 1,000+/- in 30 days, with a steadily declining trend. If we stay this course, the next flu season, which could be much worse as the CDC projects, will also be far better managed.      

2. Let All Asymptomatic People Return to Work -- This second option, perhaps the likeliest scenario, is to allow, even encourage, the asymptomatic people to return to (or look for) work. This may be performed by "Tele Health," allowing private physicians to check (via telephone or video call) and certify the people to return. This practice carries an inherent risk to the employer as many returning employees might easily pass as asymptomatic during the incubation period. This inherent risk aided by people's underlying medical conditions might not help lower the current rate. The flattening curve (blue trendline) captures this phenomenon, meaning the curve continues to go sideways, rather than declining. In order to lower the overall risk, the certifying physicians must be allowed to consider patients' medical conditions (diabetes, hypertension, cancer, etc.). Of course, this approach is nothing but kicking the can down the road.    

3. Let the Governors Decide (en Masse) -- This is the worst possible scenario with serious negative outcomes, perhaps leading to workplace chaos, high absenteeism and employee turnovers. This unnecessary exuberance will further spike infections and, consequently, more deaths as well. Obviously, expecting the non-healthcare employees to use masks (long-term) will have very negative effects on work. The red trendline loosely replicates this dangerous scenario. This dangerous approach may trigger a more serious second wave in combination with the next flu season. At this point, the governors must consider the health and safety of the 99% rather than paying too much attention to the 1%. The 1% can always flee to Hamptons and Catskill ... didn't we just see that?

Stay safe.

Data Source: 
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_the_United_States

Also Read
We Need a Meaningful "Test and Return to Work" Segmentation Plan to Avoid a Bigger Rebound Disaster

-Sid Som
homequant@gmail.com
     

Analyzing Coronavirus Stats – the Global Case – 04/23/2020 Update

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Total Cases -- The above table shows the hardest-hit countries in the world with at least 25K coronavirus cases (as of 8pm on 4/23). China has been left out. It makes no sense to include China's unreliable reporting; doing so would simply skew the real stats. The worldwide total has now exceeded a mammoth 2.71M cases. The US has still been the epicenter of this pandemic outbreak with nearly 880K cases (32.4% of the worldwide total). Italy, Spain and France have peaked as their new cases, based on 2-day moving averages, have been flat-lining or trending down. Spain remains at the top of the European list with 213K cases, followed by Italy, France and Germany with 190K, 158K and 153K cases, respectively. In last weeks, the UK has experienced cases skyrocketing to 138K cases, vigorously overtaking Turkey and Iran.

Deaths -- Though the US death rate of 5.7% has been below the worldwide average of 7.0% (well above the WHO's estimate of 3.4%), some of the hardest-hit European countries have been continuing in the 10-15% range. In fact, Belgium, Italy, France and UK's death rates have exceeded an alarming 13%. Fortunately, Germany and Switzerland have been maintaining significantly lower death rates. Iran's rate has been holding steady at around 6%, while Canada, Russia and Turkey are doing well. 

Recovery -- Given the asymmetric outbreak around the world, it's too premature to confirm the current worldwide recovery rate of 27.4% as a good base rate that all individual country rates would be compared with. Similarly, despite the explosive outbreak in the US, its recency makes it difficult to confirm the current low rate of 9.7% as its baseline recovery rate. Germany, Spain and Switzerland have been registering better recovery rates than the other European countries. Obviously, Russia and Turkey are struggling. Brazil and Canada are getting better while Iran has been maintaining a high recovery rate. The UK situation is still evolving so its rate is as unpredictable as that of the US.  

Active Cases -- Since the US situation is very fluid, its active cases account for 85%, though down from 92% two weeks ago. Switzerland and Germany have been keeping the active caseloads more manageable than Spain, Italy, France Belgium and Canada where the cases, though trending downward, range between 50% and 60%. The countries with more recent surge, including the UK, Netherlands, Turkey and Russia, have been dealing with high active cases. Since Iran has peaked, its active cases are under 20%, which is one bright spot amid this mayhem.

Serious/Critical Cases -- Some of the hardest-hit European countries are still faced with 3% to 4% serious/critical cases. Brazil has a mind-boggling high rate of 17%. Of course, the lack of uniform guidelines to define this category often makes the comparison somewhat apples-to-oranges. Case in point: Canada's 1.3%, Turkey's 1.8%, UK's 1.1% and Italy's 1.2% rates could be anomalous.  

Tests and Positive Cases -- The US is the only country to have administered all over 4M tests, followed by Russia (2.4M), Germany (2.1M) and Italy (1.6M). France has the highest positive test rate at 34% while Spain, Belgium, Iran and UK are registering in the low-to-mid 20's. Netherlands, the US and Brazil are not too far behind either. As usual, Germany and Switzerland have significantly lower positive test rates. The reason Russia and Canada have low rates is that their tests might include a part of the asymptomatic population. Due to the paucity of test kits worldwide, most countries are zeroing in on the symptomatic population only.  

Data Source: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ 

Stay safe!

-Sid Som
homequant@gmail.com

Analysis of Coronavirus Outbreak in Western Europe

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Highlights:

1. France -- France is the hardest-hit country in Western Europe, with 160K confirmed cases and 21K deaths, next only to Spain and Italy in the whole of Europe. As in other major European countries, both infection and death rates among immigrants are markedly higher than the rest of the population. Also, France has been seriously lagging behind in tests. Fortunately, since peaking on 4/14, France's daily new cases have been trending down.  

2. United Kingdom -- Though the surge in the UK occurred a couple of weeks after France, the severity of the outbreak has already pushed its death rate close to that of France. Despite the severity of the outbreak, the most recent data are pointing to stabilization. We have to wait a few more days before we conclude if the peak is around. Lack of testing is a serious issue. 

3. Belgium -- Sadly, Belgium has the highest death rate -- a truly heart-breaking 15% -- among all European nations. Therefore, Belgium's infection and death rates (per million people) are also the highest in Western Europe. Hopefully, their recent push for intensified testing will help bring these unfortunate rates down in coming weeks. Given a much smaller population of under 12M (as compared to France and UK with 60M apiece), they should be able to extend the testing to the entire population.

4. Netherlands -- The bi-modal distribution of their daily cases makes it premature to draw any conclusion as to the occurrence of the real peak. Of course, the good news is, Netherlands has the lowest death rates -- 11.6% and 237/million population, respectively -- in Western Europe. Like Belgium, Netherlands has a relatively small population of 18M so it needs to extend the testing to the whole population. Given its current bi-modal situation, it could be more vulnerable to a renewed outbreak.

Stay safe!

Data Source: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

-Sid Som
homequant@gmail.com

Analysis of Coronavirus Outbreak in Latin America

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Highlights:

1. Brazil -- Though Brazil has the largest number of cases in Latin America, its effective rate (No of Cases/1M pop) is significantly lower than those of several other countries in the region. Moreover, Brazil has peaked as its daily new cases have been steadily trending down since hitting the highest point on April 15. Its high death rate can be attributed to its inadequate testing. 

2. Peru -- Despite having 16K cases, Peru has a fairly high effective rate. Nonetheless, it has managed to keep its death rate low by putting in place an efficient testing system. Of course, the good news is that Peru has also peaked as its daily new cases have been on the wane since hitting the peak on April 13.

3. Chile -- Though Chile already has over 10K cases with a high effective rate, it nonetheless has the lowest death rate in the region due to its highly aggressive testing mechanism. Chile -- peaked or very close to peaking -- announced yesterday its soon-to-be-introduced "Covid Digital" project to certify its "negative" population. 

4. Ecuador -- With over 10K cases and a high effective rate, Ecuador has one of the worst overall stats in the region. Their primary failure thus far has resulted from inadequate testing; for instance, Ecuador's 32,453 tests look quite pale vis-a-vis Chile's 118,827, albeit having comparable population sizes.  

5. Mexico -- Though Mexico has fewer than 10K cases, it is nowhere close to the peak. Conversely, Mexico's cases are growing exponentially -- from 353 new cases on 4/14 to 578 on 4/18 to 764 on 4/20. Their highest death rate coupled with the lowest testing rate point to an unsettling situation in the immediate future. 

6. Panama -- Despite Panama's small population of 4M, the combination of a late and erratic surge demonstrates a high effective rate of 1,035. Fortunately, their intensified testing has been keeping the death rate low. Obviously, the recency of the surge translates to the low recovery rate and high active caseloads. 

7. Colombia and Argentina-- Late surges, inadequate testing, high death rates, and low recovery rates currently describe the outbreaks of these two countries. They need to intensify testing to avoid having to be confronted with much bigger situations.

Data Source: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

Stay safe!

-Sid Som
homequant@gmail.com
  

Comparing Coronavirus Stats – New York City vs. Rest of NYS

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The line graph (top) shows while the New York City curve has just started to flatten, the rest of the NYS curve has been flattening for a while (since 4/11). 

New York City is the home to a large minority population, especially African Americans and Latino Americans. This rapidly increasing divergence between the two curves results from the fact that the city's minority population has been more severely impacted by this outbreak than their counterparts. 

On 3/18 (not shown), the split between NYC and the rest of NYS was 644 to 730 (difference of -86 cases), growing to 1,339 to 1,043 (+296) the next day. The same trend has been continuing ever since; for instance, the difference grew to 10,483 on 3/31 and accelerated to 13,071 and 16,158 on 4/5 and 4/11, respectively. The difference has however tapered in the last three days, indicating the simultaneous flattening of curves.

By studying the two data lines mutually exclusively, one can easily come to the conclusion that the rest of NYS had peaked in early April, while NYC has just started to peak. By early next week, both curves are expected to show clear logarithmic slopes, meaning they will further tilt down.

The regression graph (bottom) shows the rapid acceleration of NYC cases: between 80K and 115K, the data points were pushed above the regression line. Now that the acceleration has significantly tapered, the five most recent data points are residing below the line. 

My blog post on 4/9 showed how the devil was getting frightened. Today, the devil is totally cornered. 

Humans will always win the war with the devil!

Data Source: 
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_New_York_(state)

Stay safe!

-Sid Som
homequant@gmail.com

Analysis of the Closed-out Coronavirus Cases – the Global Case

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The above table shows the hardest-hit countries in the world with at least 25K coronavirus cases (as of 8pm on 4/17). China has been left out. It makes no sense to include China's unreliable reporting; doing so would simply skew the real stats. Also, the UK hasn't reported the updated recoveries, so the analysis of their closed-out stats remains incomplete, too. The worldwide coronavirus cases have now exceeded a mammoth 2.28M.

Highlights of the Closed-out Cases

1. Of the 724,509 closed-out cases worldwide, the split between deaths and recoveries stands at 21:79. Since the world has gradually been coming to grips with more effective treatments, the recovery rate has steadily climbed, which is one positive patch amid this ongoing pandemic.

2. Obviously, the US remains the epicenter of the outbreak with 709K confirmed and 97K closed-out cases (32% and 13% of the worldwide totals, respectively). Unfortunately, the US death rate (38%) has far outpaced the worldwide average (21%). Of course, since the death stats are instantaneously recorded while the recovery is generally a slow process - often a lengthy one - the current US rates reflect that initial imbalance which will be significantly moderated in coming months.

3. Of the three worst-hit countries in Europe - Spain, Italy and France - Spain's rates are trending in line with the worldwide averages while Italy and France demonstrate heart-breaking high death rates, considering they have already gone past the initial imbalance phase.

4. Though the surge in the UK occurred much later than its worst-hit European counterparts, it has lately been catching up. Granted, their recovery stats are not usable, but the actual death rate (total deaths to total cases) of 13% points to the ongoing mayhem there.

5. Despite having to deal with 141K confirmed cases, Germany has been doing a phenomenal job in taking care of their infected population, as evidenced in their very low death rate. Of the 87K closed-out cases, 83K have recovered -- truly awesome job!

6. Belgium has been struggling with ballooning deaths every day. Of the 36% closed-out cases, they have reported a death rate of 39%. Then again, their situation is somewhat analogous to the current US case: the initial imbalance needs to be heeded to.

7. Switzerland, like Germany, has risen to the occasion. A 93% recovery rate is really something to write home about!

8. Lately, Brazil and Canada are being bombarded with new cases, but they seem to be managing their sickened population better than many other countries across the globe. Russia and Netherlands' closed-out stats are incomplete at this point. 

9. Last but not least, Iran. Amid all those economic sanctions they have a low death rate of 8%. I am confused. This is where analysis turns into paralysis.

Stay safe!

Data Source: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

-Sid Som
homequant@gmail.com
            

Analysis of the Closed-out Coronavirus Cases – the US Case

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Out of the 708,823 cases nationwide, only 96,723 (14%) cases have closed. The closed cases comprise the sum of the total deaths and recovered, with national averages of 38% and 62%, respectively.

Of course, this analysis is meaningful for the four states -- NY, NJ, CA and WA -- that have peaked. 

New York, the epicenter of the US outbreak with 234K (33%) cases, has been in close alignment with the national averages, with a split of 42% and 58%.   

Though New Jersey has peaked, it has reported only 5,111 (6.5%) closed cases. Based on such a small sample, it is too premature to draw a meaningful conclusion of their split, though they have a very high death rate thus far.

Although California was one of the early victims of the outbreak, it has done a better job (than the eastern states) due to early lock-down. Despite a smaller sample of 2,371 closed cases, the split seems reasonable, i.e., in line with the national averages.

Despite the early jolt, the state of Washington has done a commendable job of not letting it go out of control. In terms of the total number cases, it has dropped from number one spot two months ago to number fourteen with a mere 11,152 cases, representing 1.6% of the national total. Of the 2,298 closed-out cases, they have a 75% recovery rate -- a true achievement indeed!

MA and MI have diametrically opposite splits, while PA and FL are somewhere in between. LA, IL, GA, TX, MD, IN and CT are going through the initial surges so more time and data are needed before stats are considered reliable or even inferential.

Data Source: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

-Sid Som
homequant@gmail.com

Coronavirus Stats – the Global Case – 04/16/2020 Update

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Total Cases -- The above table shows the hardest-hit countries in the world with at least 25K coronavirus cases (as of 8pm on 4/16). China has been left out. It makes no sense to include China's unreliable reporting; doing so would simply skew the real stats. The worldwide total has now exceeded a mammoth 2.18M cases. The US has been the epicenter of this pandemic outbreak (since 3/25) with nearly 675K cases (31% of the worldwide total). Italy, Spain and France have peaked as their new daily cases, based on 2-day moving averages, have lately been flat-lining or trending down. Spain remains at the top of the list with 185K, followed by Italy, France and Germany with 169K, 165K and 138K, respectively. Of late, the UK has been climbing the chart quite vigorously with 103K cases and overtaking Iran, one of the original victims.

Deaths -- Though the US death rate of 5.1% has been below the worldwide average of 6.7% (well above the WHO's estimate of 3.4%), some of the hardest-hit European countries have been continuing in the 10-14% range. In fact, Belgium, Italy and UK's death rates have exceeded an alarming 13%. Fortunately, Germany and Switzerland have been maintaining significantly lower death rates. Iran's rate has been holding steady at around 6%, while Canada, Russia and Turkey are doing well. 

Recovery -- Given the asymmetric outbreak around the world, it's too premature to confirm the current worldwide recovery rate of 25.1% as a good base rate that all individual country rates would be compared with. Similarly, despite the explosive outbreak in the US, its recency makes it difficult to confirm the current low rate of 8.5% as its baseline recovery rate. Germany, Spain and Switzerland have been registering better recovery rates than the other European countries. Obviously, Netherlands, Russia and Turkey are struggling. Brazil and Canada are getting better while Iran has been maintaining a high recovery rate. The UK situation is still evolving so its rate is unpredictable at this point.  

Active Cases -- Since the US situation is very fluid, its active cases account for 86%, though down from 92% a week ago. The active percent in Europe remains high, generally in the 60% to 70% range. The countries with more recent surge, including the UK, Netherlands, Turkey and Russia, have active cases in the upper 80's. Canada has been steadily trending down. Since Iran has peaked, its active cases are well under 30%, which is one bright spot amid this mayhem.

Serious/Critical Cases -- Some of the hardest-hit European countries are still faced with 3% to 5% serious/critical cases. Brazil has a mind-boggling high rate of 21.8%. Of course, the lack of uniform guidelines to define this category often makes the comparison somewhat apples-to-oranges. Case in point: Switzerland's 1.4%, UK's 1.5% and Italy's 1.7% rates could be anomalous.  

Tests and Positive Cases -- The US is the only country to have administered over 3M (3.4M as of today) tests, followed by Germany (1.7M), Russia (1.6M) and Italy (1.2M). France and Brazil have high positive rates -- nearly 50% --Germany and Switzerland are showing far lower positive rates. UK, USA, Spain and the Netherlands have been recording very high positive rates as well. The reason Russia and Canada have low rates is that their tests might include a part of the asymptomatic population. Due to the paucity of test kits worldwide, most countries are zeroing in on the symptomatic population only.  

Data Source: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ 

Stay safe!

-Sid Som

homequant@gmail.com

Coronavirus Stats – the US Case – 04/15/2020 Update

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Total Cases -- While the US outbreak started in Seattle, WA, New York City has been the epicenter for the last three weeks, accounting for 33.4% of the total cases. New Jersey was somewhat late to the saga but has gained significant momentum in the last two weeks, thus moving up the ladder to the 2nd position with 11.0% of the total cases. Washington, the original front-runner, has now fallen to the 13th position, even below Georgia and Connecticut. California, on the other hand, has dropped from 2nd to the 5th position, with 4.2% of the total cases. Massachusetts, Michigan and Pennsylvania have steadily trended up, now accounting for 4.7%, 4.4% and 4.2%, respectively. Given the growth in new cases lately, Maryland is expected to overtake Washington tomorrow. 

Total Deaths -- New York now accounts for 41% of total deaths in the US, despite owning 33% of the cases, proving how deadly the outbreak has been in NY, while New Jersey's death rate has been proportional to its share of total cases. Unfortunately, Michigan and Louisiana have been registering a higher death rate than their share of total cases. Massachusetts, California and Pennsylvania have been registering lower death rates. Despite the initial jolt of fatalities, Washington's imbalance has waned. Lately, the death rates of Texas and Maryland have outpaced their share of total cases. 

Active Cases -- Though the outbreak has been peaking in Europe, it is too premature to talk about a real peak in the US. Therefore, the total cases and active cases are still moving in tandem. Collectively, these 14 states account for 83% of the total cases, while they own 84% of the active ones. Case in point: New York accounts for 33% of the total cases and owns 32% of all active cases. Even Washington and California -- where the US outbreak started -- total and active cases remain in lockstep. 

Total Tests -- Since NYC is still the epicenter of the outbreak, its share of tests is the largest in the country, as the tests are administered strictly on a symptomatic basis to effectively manage the ongoing paucity of the available testing resources. Unfortunately, testing is seriously lagging in Michigan, Georgia, Connecticut and Maryland, registering under 100K/each as of today (4/15). Given the demography of Florida, the Governor of Florida has been very proactive in negotiating and administering the tests.  

Data Source: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

Stay safe!

-Sid Som
homequant@gmail.com

USA is behind in Coronavirus Testing. Time to Outsource Partial Testing to Non-profit Organizations like American Red Cross, etc.

Since the population of the US is significantly larger than the European countries, the equalizing metric in this analysis is: "Tests/1M Pop".  

Based on this metric, of the three hardest-hit countries in Europe -- Italy, Spain and France -- France is the only one that lags behind the US in coronavirus testing. In fact, Italy and Spain have picked up significant momentum in recent weeks. Germany has used a more structured approach to contain this outbreak from the beginning, while Switzerland has been phenomenal in testing its population. Even Canada has done a better job than the US. Unfortunately, the UK, Belgium and Netherlands have been lagging behind their neighbors.

Before opening up the non-essential services sector, the US needs to test its population, to avoid having to encounter a second wave of outbreaks, which could be deadlier. 

Ideally, the US should mobilize the well-established non-profit organizations like American Red Cross, Amnesty International USA, Planned Parenthood, Human Rights Watch, YMCA/YWCA, Food for the Poor, etc. to handle the coronavirus testing, thereby freeing up the hospitals so they can focus on what they do the best -- taking care of the patients. Even the Gates Foundation could be in the mix given their expertise in vaccinations around the world. Considering the current situation, it makes no sense to over-crowd the hospital emergency rooms with those seeking primarily coronavirus testing.  

If UPS and Fedex can handle 10X to 50X packages during the busy holiday season with temporary help, these great non-profit outfits can also handle this on-going testing juggernaut with temps. This outsourcing will not only create thousands of temporary jobs, but will also help train new healthcare graduates on-the-job. 

I disagree with those who are fiercely advocating  outsourcing of coronavirus testing to tech giants like Amazon and Google -- for one simple reason: They are in the business of making money (which is fine!) so they do not understand what caring (firing is not caring!) really means.  

Of course, the testing must be systematic with a meaningful segmentation plan, starting with those with existing jobs (see the post below).

Data Source: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

Stay safe!

-Sid Som
homequant@gmail.com

Also Read
We Need a Meaningful "Test and Return to Work" Segmentation Plan to Avoid a Bigger Rebound Disaster

USA has Bigger Coronavirus Numbers but Smaller Effective Rates

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The above table lists the five countries with a minimum of 100K Coronavirus cases (as of 4/12, 8PM). The US has 560K cases while Spain has roughly 167K, followed by Italy, France and Germany. In terms of the actual number, the difference between the US and Spain is a factor of 3.36, while the difference between the US and Germany is even a larger factor of 4.38. 

Then again, the US population is 7.07 times bigger than Spain's and 3.95 times bigger than Germany's. So, does it make sense to compare the total US cases with Spain's or Germany's? The answer is no because the comparison is apples to oranges. 

We have to compare normalized values (or statistically significant metrics). That is why, the normalized values like "Total Cases / 1M Pop" and "Total Deaths / 1M Pop" provide better comparative yardsticks. Developing a testing mechanism for 331M population is a logistical nightmare. 

Total Cases per 1M Population -- Based on these normalized values, the US has been doing a much better job than Spain, Italy and France. Germany has done an excellent job thus far and is the front-runner. The US's normalized value of 1,692 vastly outperforms Spain's 3,568, Italy's 2,586 and France's 2,031. Again, Germany has been outperforming the US.

Total Deaths per 1M Population -- The normalized US death rate is 67 vis-a-vis Spain's 368 (a factor of 5.5). Likewise, Italy and France have much higher rates as well. Again, Germany has been phenomenal, maintaining a fairly low rate of 36.

The journalists who are tirelessly pointing fingers at our larger numbers fail to understand the apples-to-apples comparisons. 

Data Source: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

- Sid Som
homequant@gmail.com

Coronavirus Stats – the Global Case – 04/11/2020 Update

Data Source: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
click on the image to enlarge

Total Cases -- The above table shows the hardest-hit countries in the world with at least 15K cases (as of 8pm on 4/11). China has been left out. It makes no sense to include China's unreliable reporting; doing so would skew the real stats. The worldwide total has now exceeded a mammoth 1.78M cases. The US has been the epicenter of this pandemic outbreak (for a while now) with nearly 533K cases (30% of the worldwide total). Though some parts of Europe have yet to peak, Italy, Spain and France may have peaked as their new daily cases have lately been flat-lining or trending down. Spain remains at the top of the list with 163K, followed by Italy, France and Germany with 152K, 129K and 125K, respectively. Of late, the UK has been climbing the chart quite vigorously, overtaking Iran, one of the original victims.

Deaths -- Though the US death rate of 3.9% has been far below the worldwide average of 6.11% (well above the WHO's estimate of 3.4%), some of the hardest-hit European countries have been continuing in the 10-12% range. In fact, Italy's death rate of 12.8% is just heart-breaking. Fortunately, Germany, Switzerland and Portugal have been maintaining significantly lower death rates. Lately, the death rate of UK has exploded to 12.5%. Iran's rate has been holding steady at around 6%.  

Recovery -- Given the asymmetric outbreak around the world, it's too premature to confirm the current worldwide recovery rate of 22.6%. Similarly, despite the explosive outbreak in the US, its recency makes it difficult to estimate a reasonable recovery rate. Switzerland and Germany have been registering better recovery rates than the other European countries, although Italy, France and Belgium are still struggling with lower rates. Turkey and Brazil have very low rates as well. The UK situation is still evolving so its rate is unpredictable at this point.  

Active Cases -- Since the US situation is very fluid, its active cases account for 90%. The active percent in Europe remains high, generally in the 60% to 70% range. The countries with more recent surge, including the UK, Turkey, Portugal and Brazil, have active cases in the low to mid-90% range. Canada has a high 70% rate as well. Since Iran has more or less peaked, its active cases have trended down to 34%.  

Serious/Critical Cases -- Some of the hardest-hit European countries are still faced with 4% to 6% serious/critical cases. Iran continues to deal with a high rate of 5.5%. Of course, the lack of uniform guidelines to define this category often makes the comparison somewhat apples-to-oranges. Case in point: Brazil's 1.4% and the UK's 2.0%.  

Tests and Positive Cases -- The US is the only country to have administered over 2M (2.7M as of today) tests, followed by Germany with 1.3M and Italy nearly 1M. While the US has a high positive rate of 20%, Germany and Portugal are showing far lower positive rates. France, Spain, Belgium and the Netherlands have been recording very high positive rates. The reason Canada has a low rate of 5.8% is that its tests might include a part of the asymptomatic population as well. 

Due to the paucity of test kits worldwide, most countries are zeroing in on the symptomatic population only.  

Data Source: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ 

Stay safe!

-Sid Som
homequant@gmail.com