Analysis of Coronavirus Outbreak in BRICS

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BRICS is the acronym representing five countries: Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa. South Africa was later added to the original BRIC, forming the present day BRICS.

Coronavirus Pandemic Highlights...

1. Though it all started in China, Russia is faced with the highest number of cases (94K) amongst BRICS, followed by China with 83K. Despite a large population of 1.35B, India has done an excellent job in controlling the pandemic, while South Africa has been very successful, too. Of course, since China, India and Russia are going into the hot summer months, their immediate risks are more limited than that of Brazil and South Africa in the Southern Hemisphere where the autumn is in full swing. 

2. In addition to the spiking caseloads, Brazil is also faced with a high death rate. If the high-allergy autumn months are further contributing to Brazil's increased misery, the Northern Hemisphere countries must pay attention to it. Russia's intensified testing is perhaps paying off, as reflected in its lower death rate. India's aggressive lockdown is praiseworthy, too. 

3. Considering Russia's surge has been more recent, its low recovery rate is quite understandable. China's coronavirus stats have been as unreliable as its 94% recovery rate. Brazil and South Africa have above average recoveries, while India has been lagging.      

4. Again, given the recency of the surge, Russia has a high active caseload. Though India has a high active case rate, the actual load seems manageable. Brazil and South Africa's rates are lower than the worldwide average.

5. The problem Brazil is facing is its high "positive" rate: every fifth test is proving positive. Russia, India and South Africa have much lower positive rates. Russia's intensified testing will prove more effective down the road. India has been compensating for its limited testing capability with aggressive and extended lockdowns. 

Since Brazil and South Africa are  already in the middle of autumn and going into winter, the countries in the Northern Hemisphere will be closely watching them as future test cases.

Stay safe:

Data Source:
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

-Sid Som
homequant@gmail.com