Sunday, May 3, 2020

Coronavirus Outbreak forces 30M in Unemployment in 6 Weeks

(Click on the image to enlarge)

The above table shows how the coronavirus outbreak has impacted the job market. The weekly jobless claims data are a better indicator of the job market than the monthly unemployment data as the former shows the actual jobless claims data rather than the survey data. 

1. On 3/14/20, the jobless claims stood at 282K, rising from 211K on 3/7/20. The spike was still moderate as the coronavirus outbreak had yet to turn into an all-out pandemic in the US. The total number of coronavirus "cases" hit 2,825 with a death toll of 59. Obviously, the job market was looking at the situation as a bad flu season rather than a pandemic. 

2. Within a week, the number of cases jumped 839% to 23,710 while the death toll jumped 510% to 301, tipping the job market over the top as the weekly unemployment claims filing rose to a historic 3.31M on 3/21/20. By this time, the market was convinced of the onslaught of a full-blown pandemic as well as the urgent need for social restrictions. 

3. By the time the next weekly claims data came in on 3/28/20, the number of cases had jumped another 100K and the death toll had crossed the 2K threshold, forcing another 6.87M people to join the unemployment line.

4. In another week, the number of cases almost tripled while the death toll quadrupled, prompting another 6.62M jobless claims on 4/4. In just three weeks 16.8M people were forced into unemployment. The first stimulus came into being to help businesses and residents to survive -- temporarily.

5. In the next three weeks, between 4/11 and 4/25, the cases and deaths skyrocketed to 934K and 48K, respectively, snowballing through the job market and forcing another 13.52M to join the unemployment line. 

Within six weeks (between 3/21 and 4/25), 30.31M people lost jobs. How horrific!

Stay safe!

Data Sources: 
US Department of Labor
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

-Sid Som
homequant@gmail.com
   

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