Coronavirus Pandemic – How the US Reached 300K Death Toll

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At the outset of the onslaught, when the White House Task Force projected a high death toll of 65K, the people worldwide woke up in fear and awe. Fast forward nine months: Yesterday, the widely-followed Johns Hopkins' Coronavirus Resource site flashed that the pandemic-related confirmed death toll in the US had crossed 300K. 

Of course, we have much to cheer on today as a couple of vaccines are ready (or being readied) for mass distribution, starting with the population's high-risk segments.

Source: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

 

Unfortunately, the actual death toll eclipsed the dire predictions in no time, hitting 100K on May 22, i.e., within three months from the first fatality, forcing the public health researchers to revert to the drawing board to tweak their vastly-flawed models that under-predicted, to say the least. New York and New Jersey collectively contributed roughly 43% of the overall death toll.

  

Source: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

The rate of growth in the death toll slightly eased while reaching 200K on September 15, thanks to the newly-approved treatment drugs like Gilead's Remdesivir and Regeneron's Regn-Cov2, replacing the malaria drug Hydrochloroqueen that was initially used by many hospitals to treat Covid patients. During this phase, while the Northeast had eased, the Sunbelt caught on with a fury.

Source: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

The above graphs demonstrate how the death rate lately has been accelerating, with a backward-bending tilt. Like the way we reached the first 100K deaths in just three months, we achieved the same distinction during the recent phase as we reached the 300K mark, despite all of the advancements in treatments and logistics.   

Now that the vaccines are here, hopefully the next milestone will be unremarkable.

Stay safe!

Data Sources:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic_in_the_United_States

-Sid Som

homequant@gmail.com

Coronavirus Pandemic – The US faces a Massive Second Wave

The ongoing second wave of the pandemic has been fast and furious. Case in point: At the initial stages of the onslaught, the scientific community had projected the death toll to be around 65K; today, it stands at 276K. Similarly, at the tail-end of the initial surge in June, there were roughly 2.5M cases, exploding to over 14M as of today.

After a remission of the initial surge between July and September, the second wave hit the US. It initially hit the Sunbelt, extending into the middle corridor and on to the Northeast in recent weeks. While the daily cases averaged 38.959 in September, it escalated to 58,743 in October, rocketing to 139,702 in November. The 7-day moving average trendline amply confirms the explosion.  

Though the daily death toll has steadily risen during the second wave, the growth rate has been significantly lower than the initial encounter. For instance, the daily deaths averaged 761 in September, flat-lining in October to 746, and escalating to 1,176 in November. While the recent jump is significant, it is 1.5 times the September toll, compared to 3.6 times in case surge.

The above regression graph makes a case for the tapering death rate. Since the case surge has been outpacing the death rate, the line of best fit has been logarithmic with an r-squared value of 0.981, exceeding the r-squared value of 0.962 from the linear fit. The slope also demonstrates that the death toll has started falling after the intersection point of 10M cases and 205K deaths, forming the logarithmic (curvilinear) tilt.

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Though the US owns 22% of the world's cases and the highest population-case rate in the western world, it has a lower death rate than the worldwide average. Despite a higher positivity rate than most of Europe, it has one of the world's best testing credentials. Due to the on-going second wave in Europe and the US, the active rates continue to climb, whereas the Latin American countries have experienced significant drops.

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In the US, Texas, California, and Florida have been the three hardest-hit states, followed by Illinois and New York. The severity of the initial jolt keeps New York in the top five, with the highest death rate in the country. Lately, Wisconsin has seen a big jump in positivity rate, though Texas, Georgia, and Pennsylvania are also rising fast. Pennsylvania has one of the worst testing records as well.

Today, the US recorded the highest daily death toll of 2,611. Hopefully, Pfizer and Moderna will receive the Emergency Use Authorization (EUA) later in the week so the vaccination could start.

Stay safe!

Data Sources:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

Wikipedia -- COVID-19 pandemic in the United States

-Sid Som

homequant@gmail.com

Coronavirus Pandemic – Mexico Registers Two Sad Milestones

 

Source: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

As we all know, Brazil and Mexico have been the two hardest-hit countries in Latin America. Lately, Mexico reached two somber milestones: One million cases and a hundred thousand deaths. The relationship exhibits the horror behind the numbers, meaning while the worldwide pandemic death rate has been a mere 2.4%, Mexico faces a whopping 9.8%, one of the highest globally.

The above graph shows that Mexico's daily cases have been gradually trending up after tapering in late September. The July average was 6,429, dropping to 4,789 in September, but promptly reverting up to 5,089 and 5,314 in October and November. Today, Mexico has registered a new daily high of 9,187. Even the daily death tolls have started climbing; for instance, the July daily deaths averaged 606, falling to 441 in September and moving sideways since then, with the November average of 451.

The regression reveals how the rate of daily deaths has been outpacing daily cases after the intersection point of 5,500 cases and 400 deaths. In other words, the scatter shows the cluster above the linear regression line is significantly heavier than its counterpart below the line. Though the angle remains at 45 degrees, the scatter's lack of tightness results in a low r-squared value. Of course, the r-squared value rises significantly between the 5th and 95th percentiles of the death rates.

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Though in terms of totals cases, Mexico is number eleven globally, its death rate eclipses those of the top ten by a factor of three. On the other hand, Argentina, Brazil, and Colombia have been registering rates below three percentage points. Mexico also has one of the world's highest positivity rates, making the pandemic all the more devastating for the ordinary people. Atop that, Mexico has the worst testing credentials in Latin America. 

Sadly, the gradual rise in both cases and deaths does not bode well for Mexico, considering the entire winter is ahead of it, and vaccines are at phase-3, at best. 

Stay safe!

Data Sources: 

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

Wikipedia COVID-19 pandemic in Mexico

-Sid Som

homequant@gmail.com

Coronavirus Pandemic – Instead of a Lockdown, We Need More Meaningful Socio-Economic Measures

While mitigation measures are critically important in public places during a pandemic, it's debatable if a total lockdown helps save more lives than just a set of meaningful socio-economic restrictions. I believe that the former would do more harm to the physical and economic lives than the latter. Then again, such restrictions must not only be well thought out but also be uncompromisingly implemented. 

Here are five basic socio-economic ideas that can hopefully help strike a balance between the two opposing spectrums.

#1 Relocating Sit-down Dining and Movie Theaters to roof-tops of commercial buildings, including multi-story parking structures. The operators need to buy or lease air rights. To weatherize the place, all the operator has to do is install a retractable or permanent metal roof and durable awning windows around the existing parapets, with some cosmetic changes or upgrades. The sitting arrangement should have a social distancing built-in. The restaurants currently located inside hotels can also consider relocating operations to the hotels' roof-tops, thus enticing at least the hotel residents to dine in. Even after the pandemic, this concept might retain significant economic value. Religious congregations could follow this format until the dust settles.

#2 Converting the Cruise Ships to Passenger Ships. It may take years before the cruise lines recover from this doldrum (see the picture at the bottom of the post), so the cruise operators may consider making a navigational change to an old-fashioned passenger ship to avoid having to scrap the fleet and layoff the entire crew. The ship operators need to open up the three upper decks for more open-air space and install more technologically advanced internets so the passengers can comfortably perform office work while traveling. Unlike cruise lines, the ticket prices should include only breakfasts, letting passengers pay for the other meals according to their choice. To start with, the operators can try the US-Europe and US-Caribbean routes. Of course, they must initially qualify for the stimulus money to make the switch. This switch may have long-term economic value. It would be a great alternative to international air travel, especially for those afraid of air travel. 

#3 Switching to Solar Roofs. It's about time that our homes are more energy-efficient, switching to eco-friendly roofs with solar panels. Post pandemic, a sizable percentage of new homes should be built with all-solar panel roofs. Even when the existing houses with traditional roofs constructed with shingles, metal, concrete tiles, etc., require new roofs, homeowners should be encouraged to switch to all-solar panel roofs. It will not only save homeowners a ton in energy costs but will also be environmentally cleaner. It will also give a significant boost to the economy. This move should primarily be funded by the infrastructure stimulus, which is way overdue. Both existing and new homeowners opting for it will get a sizeable tax credit.

#4 Reinventing Student Loans and Phasing out H1-B Visas. We need a 5-to-7 year moratorium on all student loans except STEM education to make our education more labor-force friendly. In addition to STEM, the renewed student loan programs should include para-medical and counseling services like nursing, physical therapy, family counseling, etc. All financial aid must also go to those students only. Even the new STEM teachers will be big beneficiaries. Meanwhile, we have to gradually phase out the H1-B Visas -- preferably in the next five years -- to protect our new STEM graduates from the highly unfair foreign competition. Therefore, by the time these new STEM students graduate, the new H1-B would be non-existent. 

#5 Introducing Universal Basic Income (UBI). The federal government must introduce UBI to protect citizens, especially the poor and middle-class, from unprecedented calamities in the future.  The government needs to introduce a middle-class friendly, progressive consumption tax on durable goods at the national level to fund the proposed UBI. For instance, a middle-class family spending $3,000 on a pair of washer-dryer will not pay this additional sales tax, but a wealthy family spending $15,000 on a smart pair will pay this extra federal sales tax. Additionally, the introduction of UBI will help replace the existing welfare system, including Medicaid, paving the way for "Medicare for All" economically feasible.

It's high time that we think a little outside-of-the-box to avoid much socio-economic misery tormenting humanity.

Stay safe!

-Sid Som

homequant@gmail.com 

https://www.insider.com/abandoned-scrapped-cruise-ships-illustrate-struggling-industry-2020-11

Coronavirus Pandemic – Italy faces a more Horrific Second Wave

The on-going second wave of the pandemic in Italy has been more horrific than the initial one, requiring renewed lockdowns in the hardest-hit areas, especially tourist hot spots. Unfortunately, the rising death tolls have forced the extended death curve to form into a classic bi-modal one. 

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The above graph depicting the daily cases' full-spectrum tells the story the country has been facing. Here is how the second wave compares with the initial one. At the peak of the initial surge in March and April, the daily cases averaged 3,470 and 3,322, respectively, tapering exponentially to 888 and 263 in the following two months. As the second wave began in September with a daily average of 1,522, it promptly escalated to 11,760 in October. It rocketed to 32,940 in November, which is a whopping 9.5 times higher than the initial peak.

 
 

Despite being in a significantly better treatment environment now, the renewed death curve is fast becoming comparable to the initial one. For instance, during the initial wave in March and April, the daily death tolls averaged 413 and 518, respectively. Though the November average has jumped to 478, it has been escalating daily, with the toll jumping to 753 today and 731 yesterday.  

The regression between the daily cases and daily deaths during the second wave portrays the rising horror. The trendline has become exponential after surging past the intersection point of 25,000 cases and 200 deaths. Therefore, the linear trendline's r-squared value (not shown) is much lower than the r-squared value of the exponential trendline indicated here. As the scatter reveals, the daily deaths have started to further exponentiate after exceeding the 32,500/400 inflection point.  

On 3-31-2020, Itlay was number two worldwide, with 106K cases and 4K deaths, dropping to number six at the end of May with 231K cases and 33K deaths. The extended remission between the surges helped Italy move down to the number ten position (as shown above), although the recent explosion has spiked the caseload up to a massive 1.27M and deaths to 47K. 

The fact that the entire winter is still ahead and the mass distribution of vaccines is at least three months away makes the scenario all the more problematic for Italy, if not mostly grim. 

Stay safe!

Data Sources: 

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic_in_Italy

-Sid Som

homequant@gmail.com 

Coronavirus Pandemic – How are the US Veterans Cared for?

 

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Today is Veterans Day -- a day when America salutes its veterans. Since 2020 has been an unusual year with Covid-19 encircling our lives, it's good to determine if the US Dept. of Veterans Affairs (VA) -- the agency tasked with providing medical care and services of the veterans -- has risen to the occasion. 

Considering that the comparative stats are also available for the other three non-states, i.e., US Military, Federal Prison, and Navajo Nation, let's also loosely compare their services with the VA's.

Veterans Affairs: With the help of its 1,000+ medical facilities, the VA takes care of nearly nine million enrolled veterans each year. Since the VA owns and operates its facilities, it has been caring for its coronavirus victims. 

As of now, it has a total caseload of roughly 85K. To put things in proper perspective, its current caseload is more extensive than the caseloads of many mainland states, including CT (84.7K), ID (75.4K), NM (57.5K), ND (57.4K), SD (57.3K), and OR (52.8K). Though its active cases have come down to 9,147 (11%), it has been registering a high death rate of 5.00%, which is significantly higher than the national average of 2.31%. Likewise, its positivity rate of 9.30% is also much higher than the national average of 6.61%.

US Military: Given the US Military's very aggressive and proactive medical services, its death rate of 0.12% has been the lowest among all state and non-state entities. Again, it has a slightly higher caseload of 92K than the VA's and mainland states, as indicated before. Of course, its active caseload remains higher than the VA's but is in line with the national average. Though its testing credentials are unknown, it can safely be assumed that it's one of the highest in the world, leading to a higher active rate.  

Federal Prisons: The Federal Bureau of Prisons (BOP) has 138,954 federal inmates in BOP-managed institutions and an additional 11,518 in community-based facilities. Unfortunately, nearly 15% of the federal inmate population has already been infected. Though the death rate is still low, The positivity rate has been exorbitantly high. Therefore, absent better mitigation measures, the high infection rate may lead to more criticality and fatality.

Navajo Nation: It comprises roughly 357K population, located primarily in the country's southwestern part. Its caseload of nearly 13K is more extensive than the three mainland states: NH, ME, and VT. The fact that it has a high death and positivity rate, along with recently-surging death tolls, calls for more on-site testing and stricter mitigation restrictions. Its better access to treatment has lowered the active rate. 

So, here are some of the issues to ponder:

Despite having a dedicated agency for the veterans

1. Why is the death rate among veterans so high?

2. Why is the population testing rate only 10% (900K out of 9M)?

3. Why is the active rate only 11%, whereas it's 34% for the active duty and 36% for the nation as a whole? Isn't it conspicuously low?

It's about time that Medicare wraps around all veterans, taking control of the VA.

#MedicareForAllVeterans

Stay safe!

-Sid Som

homequant@gmail.com

Data Source: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

Coronavirus Pandemic – A Nightmarish Second Wave Torments France

The following scenario will summarize how France has reverted to a renewed nightmare, with a massive second wave.

On 5/27/20, France occupied the seventh position worldwide with 182,913 cases, rapidly falling to sixteenth on 6/28/20, gradually swinging back to eleventh on 9/27/20, and rocketing to fourth with 1.8M cases on 11/09/20. 

Despite effective treatment and testing advancements in recent months, the death toll has also climbed from 28,596 on 5/27 to 40,987 on 11/09.

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After the initial outbreak was brought under control in May, the daily cases nosedived in June but modestly resurfaced in July with 1,110 on average. However, the average cases rose to 3,724 in August, rapidly trending up to 9,417 in September, then sharply soaring to 25,938 in October, and almost doubling to 48,873 thus far in November. A nightmarish public health scenario indeed.

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France has also been rising rapidly on the chart in total death tolls, recently eclipsing Iran and Spain. The fact that France has lost over 12K lives between June and November is worrying. In terms of daily deaths, the July average was 21, falling to 15 in August, but reversing rapidly to 45 in September, escalating to 156 in October, and tripling to 467 thus far in November. This fast-rising death trend is ominous.

The regression between total cases and total deaths depicts a much smoother trend than the daily event, as the latter is more prone to adjustments and weekend reporting anomalies.  

The total regression graph (top) is quite telling. The overall relationship remained linear until the intersection of 1.5M cases and 37K deaths, past which the death toll has taken an exponential upswing, staying consistently above the linear trendline. Due to the exponential upswing at the outer end of the curve, the exponential trendline (not shown) returns a higher r-squared value of 0.988 than the linear trend's r-squared value of 0.978.  

Though the daily relationship is noisy, a linear trend is nonetheless in the offing.

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Despite France's escalating death tolls, its death rate remains in line with the worldwide average. Unfortunately, it lags behind other hard-hit European countries in testing credentials, resulting in a high positivity rate. The on-going second wave has also bumped up its active rate to an appalling 91%, potentially causing hospitalization issues all over again.  

Today, Pfizer has announced an awe-inspiring 90% efficacy rate on its Phase-3, so others (AstraZeneca, Glaxo, J & J, Moderna, and Merck) are not far behind. If the production goes smoothly, the mass delivery could start as early as Q2-2021. Meanwhile, France has to keep its fingers crossed for a safe winter.

Stay safe!

Data Sources: 

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic_in_France

-Sid Som

homequant@gmail.com

Coronavirus Pandemic – 50M Cases Globally and 10M in the US

 

Source: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

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Today, the coronavirus pandemic handed in two more grim milestones: The world and the USA registered 50M and 10M cases, respectively, silencing the critics and non-believers of the pandemic or of the horror it has brought to humanity. Unfortunately, the US thus far accounts for 20% of all cases and 19% of all deaths.

The above graphs show how a second wave has been tormenting the world, not only in terms of the explosion of cases but also in rapidly increasing death tolls. During the past summer (June-September 2020), the daily cases used to average around 300K cases. Lately, the average has been doubling -- a tumultuous second wave indeed!

Of course, there is a silver lining amid this grave scenario, which is the low 3% worldwide death rate -- a significantly lower rate than the initial rate that devasted the world during the first wave, thanks to innovative drugmakers like Gilead and Regeneron, coupled with the more accessible ventilators.

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As indicated above, the US just registered 10M confirmed cases, remaining at the top of the hardest-hit list, followed by India with 8.5M and Brazil with 5.5M. Fortunately, the rest of the hardest-hits have not reached the 3M mark yet. 

Though India has three million more cases than Brazil, it has recorded 35K fewer deaths. Despite a fast-declining death rate, Mexico continues to deal with a high ten percentage. Iran's death rate remains conspicuously high as well. 

Due to the inadequate testing, the Latin American hardest-hits have also been confronted with some of the world's highest positivity rates.

Data Source: 

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

Stay safe!

-Sid Som

homequant@gmail.com

 

Coronavirus Pandemic – Using Vaccine ETF as an Investment Vehicle

 

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An Exchange Traded Fund (ETF) is an excellent investment vehicle for those who are risk-averse to individual stocks and are uncomfortable with mutual funds' restrictions.  

In 2020, as the pandemic became frightening, many Bio/Pharma ETFs changed their primary holding to focus on the pandemic. In the process, broadly, two distinct groups emerged, wherein one focused on the development of vaccines, while the other concentrated on the treatment and administration. While they are not mutually exclusive, their primary holdings, however, are reasonably different. For example, the PPH ETF comprises the major vaccine development companies like AstraZeneca, Pfizer, J & J, Eli Lilly, Merck, Sanofi, etc. primarily, while the BBH ETF focuses on treatment providers and momentum stocks like Amgen, Biogen, Gilead, Regeneron, Moderna, etc. 

Since vaccine development is a medium-to-long-term venture, the development ETFs hardly took off this year, whereas the treatment and momentum ETFs produced some standout returns. The above two graphs representing the two sub-sectors convincingly prove the point: PTH has returned 52% while PPH has been hovering on the negative-return zone.

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Due to the similarity of primary holdings, the development ETFs share high positive correlations among themselves but much lesser correlations with the treatment and momentum ETFs. Conversely, the treatment and momentum ETFs share a high degree of correlations among themselves, while much lesser correlations with the development sub-group. 

BBH, a treatment and momentum ETF, shares very high correlations of 0.9873, 0.9031, and 0.9474, respectively, with the other three ETFs in the same sub-group, namely IBB, PTH, and XB, but significantly lower correlations with the development ETFs. On the other hand, XPH, a development ETF, shares very high correlations with its counterparts in the sub-group and much lower correlations with the other sub-group.

Therefore, one needs to pick a complementary combination of ETFs to play the Covid-19 vaccine arena effectively.

Data Source: Yahoo Finance

Disclaimer: The author is not advocating any of the ETFs/stocks listed here. Consult your Registered Rep, RIA, or Financial Planner for an appropriate asset allocation model and the suitability of stocks and other holdings for you.

Stay safe!

-Sid Som

homequant@gmail.com

  

Post Pandemic, Congress must Phase out H1-B Work Visas

Studies show that almost 2 million H-1B visas have been distributed between 2000 and 2019. 

The H-1B visa program allows employers to hire foreigners to work in jobs that require highly specialized knowledge and a bachelor's degree or higher. The current annual cap, as set by Congress, is 85,000. Though it's a temporary non-immigrant visa (valid up to 6 years), tens of thousands have been allowed to adjust to permanent status with green cards.  

How to Reduce Dependence on H-1B – A 5-Point Solution...

1. Provide corporations significant Tax Benefits to hire local STEM graduates. Instead of incentivizing US corporations to hire more H-1B workers, the federal government should allow them considerable tax incentives to engage the local STEM (Science, Technology, Engineering, and Math) graduates at the prevailing rate. This particular tax incentive should last, say, up to five years (or the employee's longevity, whichever comes first), thus vastly negating the incentive to hire foreign workers at a reduced rate. This tax incentive will also encourage future STEM students, foreseeing a fast-leveling playing field. Without this assurance, it would be challenging to entice local students to venture into the STEM field. Today, the qualified American workers are training their far-less skilled foreign counterparts to take their jobs. 

2. Introduce higher educational qualifications for H-1B applicants. According to the Congressional mandate, 65,000 H-1B applicants need only bachelor's degrees while another 20,000 require master's or higher. Unfortunately, a bachelor's degree in SE Asia (which accounts for 80%+ applicants) is not equivalent to a US bachelor's. To effectively meet the US standard, Congress should consider transposing the degree requirements, meaning 65,000 applicants with master's + and 20,000 with bachelors. It makes no sense to displace a truly qualified American degree-holder with a much less capable foreign degree-holder. That is why the replacement wages tend to be much lesser for foreign workers. Since H-1B is meant for the highly skilled foreign workers, Congress should gradually move to an all master's + requirement, at least leveling the playing field.

3. Until Higher Educational Requirements are established, Congress must insist on degree evaluation by the ETS (and other entities). While Congress debates on upping the ante on degree requirements, it must require that the foreign degrees are adequately vetted and evaluated. The well-known education evaluation organizations like the Educational Testing Service (ETS) should perform the necessary vetting, forcing the sponsoring organizations to prove that their candidates satisfy the US educational requirements. This independent yet straightforward step will surgically (identify and) disqualify many applicants from the export-oriented private schools as they will not meet the US degree requirements. Ideally, Congress must additionally require all applicants to pass a US-administered standardized test (good for three years), along the lines of Foreign Medical Graduates Exam (FMGE). 

4. The Sponsoring Companies must be incentivized to recruit Foreign Students Graduating from major US Universities first. International students graduating from the major US Colleges and Universities are more valuable candidates for these unfilled jobs than their all-foreign counterparts. There are other advantages to this hiring approach too:

(a) No need for the equivalency assessment;

(b) Since the vast majority of them undergo internship or practical training in the US, they are already used to the requirements of the American workplace and work ethics;

(c) Graduates from the major US schools are at least as good as the best and brightest from foreign nations;

(d) They will command the prevailing wages, negating the arbitrage described above that many sponsors have been trading on;

(g) Better English proficiency (both verbal and written) and so forth.

5. Let the Annual H-1B Quotas steadily decline as we promote STEM Education. If we switch to merit-based immigration, H-1B will be a thing of the past. Whether that comes to pass or not, the rapid and aggressive promotion of STEM education will steadily lower the quotas. Hopefully, the current 85,000 level would decline by 20,000 annually, leading to a total phase-out in 5 years. If we can promote STEM education in keeping with the labor force's needs, this phase-out could take place even sooner. Of course, the promotion (of the positives) of STEM education must start early in high school so that students are always in the know of the unrestricted domain of opportunity the STEM universe offers. 

Stay safe!

-Sid Som

homequant@gmail.com