Coronavirus – Is New Jersey Facing a Follow-up Outbreak?

New Jersey is not out of the woods yet. 

Unfortunately, in the last five days, the daily counts of confirmed infections and deaths have sharply trended up, proving that the early signs of a peak, as well as a taper, were false. 

The regression line (top graph) demonstrates how the linear trend turned into a logarithmic trend by tilting over at the intersection of 6K deaths and 105K infections. However, the most recent data points (4/28 to 5/2) not only flipped to the upside but also switched to the other side of the line, indicating the reversal of the prior trend. 

The bottom graph is more telling. When the data points were pared down to the most recent days -- between 4/21 and 5/2 -- the graph clearly demonstrates an emerging exponential slope, meaning sharply tilting back up. More precisely, the three most recent data points have not only reversed course, but have jumped back above the trend line as well.

The fact that NJ's death toll has soared 22 times (from 355 to 7,752) in just 32 days is truly alarming. Total infections have also climbed six-fold during the same period. 

Of course, whether this is a short-term trend reversal (due to some changes in the data capture methodology, i.e., non-statistical) or a follow-up outbreak remains to be seen. 

Given this sudden trend reversal, the Governor of New Jersey must not relax the current social restrictions until a more stable sideways trend, if not a downward trend with steady decline, emerges.  

Stay safe!

Data Source:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_New_Jersey


-Sid Som
homequant@gmail.co