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The above data table shows how the coronavirus outbreak has impacted the job market. The weekly jobless claims data are a better indicator of the job market than the monthly unemployment data as the former shows the actual jobless claims data rather than the survey data.
Highlights...
The lockdown resulting from the pandemic has forced employers to lay off a historic 40.8 million full-time employees in a mere ten weeks, between 3/21 and 5/23.
During the same 10-week period, the number of coronavirus infections skyrocketed from 23,710 to 1,612,018 -- a whopping 6700% escalation. The rise in death toll was more horrific, going from a mere 301 to 90,821; the percentile increase simply beggars description.
Lately, the death rate (the ratio of number of deaths to number of infections) has stabilized at around 5.6%.
Though nearly 41 million jobs have been lost in such a short period of time, the recent trend shows a steady decline. After having peaked at 6.867M on 3/28, the most recent weekly jobless figure stands at 2.123M.
At this declining rate, the next weekly figure is expected to be well under the 2M threshold, hopefully leading to 0.5M by the end of June.
The regression graph depicts a linear declining trend. Now that the states have withdrawn or relaxed the lockdown restrictions and businesses are re-opening at a steady pace, the employment picture will gradually improve.
Of course, since the re-opening of businesses will largely depend on the immediate availability of manpower, we have to wait and see if the withdrawal of restrictions was medically conforming or was politically hastened.
Stay safe!
Data Sources:
US Department of Labor
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic_in_the_United_States
-Sid Som
homequant@gmail.com
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