Coronavirus Outbreak – How the Southwestern States are Faring vis-a-vis Mexico

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The definition of what constitutes Southwest USA (or Southwestern states) varies quite a bit. Though parts of California and Texas are usually included in most definitions, they have been ignored because data proration by county lines can be very subjective.

1. Though Arizona is the largest Southwestern state by population, Colorado has the highest number of cases and death toll, paving the way for the worst per capita stats as well, followed by Oklahoma and Nevada. Utah has the lowest death rate at 1.2%. Mexico "with a population of 129M" has 54,346 cases and 5,666 deaths. Thus, Mexico's death rate at 10.4% far exceeds those of the Southwestern states, as well the US national average at 6.0%. 

2. The silver lining for Mexico has been its very low active case rate at 21%, while Arizona has a whopping 95%, followed by Colorado's 88% and New Mexico's 69%. Amazingly, Oklahoma has been registering at a mere 17%. On a national level, Mexico's active case rate is far below the US national rate at 71%. 

3. New Mexico has been leading its Southwestern neighbors in per capita tests at 67,839/million, followed by Utah at 56,041. Again, Colorado has been recording at the tail-end of the curve at 22,893, far below the US national average at 43,378. Mexico's testing credentials are obviously dismal: Total tests at 185,755 and per capita at 1,442.

4. In fact, the issue that is currently plaguing Mexico the most is its high positivity rate at 29.3%. Let's just hope that the numerator and denominator comprising the ratio are mutually exclusive. Unfortunately, Colorado also has a high rate at 17.1%, whereas the other Southwestern states have much lower rates than the US national average at 11.3%.

5. Finally, let's compute a Southwest composite in each category (off of these six states) and compare them to those of Mexico. First of all, SW's low death composite at 4.8% is far below Mexico's 10.4%. Secondly, SW's 7.0% positivity composite is a bargain compared to Mexico's 29.3%. Thirdly, SW's testing composites are far superior to Mexico's figures. Last but not least, Mexico's active case rate at 21% is far more manageable than SW's composite at 69%.

Mexico, along with its other Central American counterparts, has some of the worst testing credentials in the world. They need to up the ante fast before the outbreak goes totally out of control.

Stay safe!

Data Source: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

-Sid Som
homequant@gmail.com