Coronavirus Outbreak in NYC – That Manhattan is the Hotbed is a Myth

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First off, a quick primer on the basic geography of the City of New York (for my international readers): 

The geographic composition of the City of New York is very different from that of the other major cities in the US. The City of New York comprises five counties (also known as boroughs): Queens, Kings, the Bronx, New York and Richmond. While the borough names for Queens and the Bronx are the same, Kings, New York and Richmond are known as the Boroughs of Brooklyn, Manhattan and Staten Island, respectively. The City of New York is, however, better known by its borough names, rather than its county names (e.g., Brooklyn is more common than Kings County). Though Queens occupies the largest land size in the city, Brooklyn is the largest by population. 

On the other hand, the other major cities in the US are generally subsets of their respective counties; for instance, the City of Chicago is in Cook County; the City of Los Angeles is in Los Angeles County; the City of Houston is in Harris County; the City of Boston is in Suffolk County; the City of Phoenix is in Maricopa County, and so forth.

Getting back to the coronavirus outbreak...

1. The top table makes it very clear that Manhattan is not the hotbed of NYC's outbreak -- Queens, Brooklyn and the Bronx are. In fact, Manhattan thus far owns only 13% of the city's total cases, while the aforesaid three counties account for 80%. Staten Island has fewer cases than Manhattan. More importantly, in terms of per capita cases, Manhattan has the lowest percent in the city.

2. The death rate in the city is way above the national average. While the rate in Manhattan is comparable to those of Queens and the Bronx, Brooklyn has the highest rate. Staten Island, due to its lower population density, has managed to maintain the lowest rate in the city, closer to the national average.

3. Unfortunately, the active case rates in the city are incredibly high -- some of the highest in the country -- considering that the outbreak is already 3-months old and that billions have been invested by the federal government to fend off the outbreak. Staten Island's 94% rate is simply mind-boggling.

4. The wealthy commuter counties around the city (bottom table), especially Suffolk, Nassau and Westchester, are highly culpable as well. Their per capita case rates -- ranging between 2.61% and 3.89% -- are generally higher than their counterparts in NYC. Since these are all well-established suburbs with much lower population densities, these high rates simply beggar description.   

5. While the death rates in the commuter counties are significantly lower than the death rate of the city, the active rates are, however, much worse. It's hard to fathom that the far-out wealthy suburbs like Rockland and Orange with exceptional medical facilities are still facing active rates in the mid-90, just proving only one thing: The poor and minority populations in those suburbs are the primary victims.

Stay safe!

Data Source: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

-Sid Som
homequant@gmail.com