Coronavirus Outbreak – The South American Countries have yet to Peak

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The seven hard-hit South American countries -- Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Columbia, Ecuador and Peru -- have yet to peak. In fact, they continue to register new highs. Of course, the outbreak in South America has followed the outbreak in the US.

Since Brazil, the hardest-hit in South America with 330K cases and 21K deaths thus far, has recently been discussed in a prior blog post, Peru becomes the sample in this blog post, representing the aforesaid countries.

Highlights...

1. The top graph shows that the daily cases are still upward trending, making new highs at every 3 to 4-day intervals. In fact, only yesterday (5/21) Peru was hit with the highest number of daily cases at 4,749, with no signs of peaking yet.

2. While at the beginning of April, Peru's 10-day average daily cases stood at a mere 466, the same average for the most recent 10 days (5/12 - 5/21) has skyrocketed to 3,995, a whopping 9X increase.

3. The bottom graph showing the daily death tolls is no different either. It's also an upward sloping one with new highs every so often. On 5/18, Peru registered its highest daily death toll so far at 141. Again, given the current trend, it shows no signs of peaking yet.      

4. Though at the beginning of April Peru's 10-day average daily death tolls stood at 12, it has jumped to 119 for the most recent 10 days (5/12 - 5/21) -- a heart-breaking 10X increase.

5. Both moving average trendlines are steadily upward sloping as well, confirming the incoming daily data points. Even the 7-day moving averages (not shown) exhibit the same upward trend, but are obviously smoother.

Unfortunately, these South American countries have very poor testing credentials so far, leading to this gigantic mess.

Stay safe!

Data Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic_in_Peru

-Sid Som
homequant@gmail.com