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The surge that started in late May has still been plaguing Alabama
relentlessly, without any signs of abatement on the horizon. On the other hand,
the current surge in Alabama is nowhere as ominous as in Arizona, California,
Florida and Texas.
Highlights...
1. Between 4/1 and 6/27, the total cases surged from 1,121 to
35,083 -- a whopping 3,030% jump. In June alone, 17,063 new cases have been added,
far exceeding the 10,165 new cases added in May when the surge was somewhat under
control.
2. As expected, the average daily cases also more than tripled
between April and June, from 202 to 651, with all of the multi-modal points
vastly eclipsing the linear trend-line. The slope of the 7-day moving average
also confirms the rapid surge.
3. Likewise, between 4/1 and 6/27, the death toll jumped from a
mere 17 to 919, escalating a heart-breaking 5,300%. There is the silver lining
though: The rate of growth in caseloads has been exceeding the growth in death tolls, as
evidenced by the logarithmic slope, rather than the linear slope, in the regression graph. The high r-squared
value even confirms that the death rate has been tapering off.
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4. Alabama's death rate of 2.6% is significantly lower than the
current national average of 4.9%. Compared to its neighboring hotbeds, its low
death rate has been sandwiched between Mississippi and Missouri on one hand and
Arkansas and Tennessee on the other. Its active case rate is also currently
lower than the national rate.
5. Unfortunately, Alabama not only owns the highest positivity
rate among the five hotbeds in the region, but it also has a higher rate than
the national average. Moreover, its testing credentials are also sub-par
compared to some of its neighbors, as well as the national average.
Data Sources:
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic_in_Alabama
-Sid Som
homequant@gmail.com
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