Coronavirus Outbreak – Recounting New York City vs. Rest of New York State

(Click on the image to enlarge)

By now, it's an open secret that the City of New York was the epicenter of the outbreak in the US in April. However, what most people, especially those in other states, do not know is that the rest of New York State ("State") was as badly impacted as the City of New York ("City").  

What everyone needs to know...

1. At the height of the outbreak in April, the rate of growth in total cases in the State exceeded that of the City. While the caseloads in the State grew 242% (from 40,572 to 138,624), the City experienced a slightly lower growth of 228% (from 51,809 to 169,690).  

2. The growth in May significantly tapered off for both the State and the City to 19% and 18%, respectively. The scatter graph demonstrates the classic "flattening of the curve" when the angle declined sharply from a linear 45 degrees to a curvilinear 30 degrees.

3. The taper has been continuing in June, with the growth declining to a mere 2% for both (in the first ten days of the month). The death tolls have also dropped off along with the total cases, thanks largely to the increased testing of the symptomatic candidates.

4. The regression graph shows that the outbreak was quite symmetric across the State, contrary to what the media led people to believe (that the City was the hardest-hit in the State). The reason the City experienced more cases is the higher population density than the rest of the State.

5. Since the pandemic affected the minority communities at a disproportionately higher rate, the City -- comprising a large minority population -- had a much larger death toll than the State. Out of the statewide death toll of 30,680 thus far, the City accounts for 17,292 and the remaining 13,388 goes to the State, revealing a very uneven split of 56% and 44%.

The good news is that the entire state is out of the woods, with no sign of re-emergence on the horizon whatsoever!

Stay safe!

Data Sources:
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic_in_New_York_City 

-Sid Som
homequant@gmail.com