Coronavirus Outbreak – It's a Somber Day in Brazil as it Reaches Two Unfortunate Milestones

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Today, Brazil hits two somber milestones simultaneously: 1M cases and 50K death toll. It's a very sad day for Brazil, indeed.

Brazil has been the epicenter of the outbreak since May, occupying the number two position behind the US but far surpassing the hardest-hit European countries including Russia. 

The outbreak in Brazil was quite delayed relative to the outbreak in Europe and the USA. On 3/15, Brazil had only 200 cases and no deaths, while the US already had 160,686 cases and 2,985 deaths. In Europe, Italy had 24,747 cases and 1,809 deaths, while the cases in Spain and France were on the rise. 

Highlights...

1. The total number of cases already doubled in June, skyrocketing from 526,447 (6/1) to 1,085,038 (6/21), with an incredible daily average of nearly 28,000 cases, which is twice the daily average of May and ten times that of April.  

2. The death toll also jumped almost 70% in June, growing from 29,937 to 50,659, with a daily average death toll of over 1,000, far exceeding the averages of prior months.

3. Both graphs are showing essentially the same (positive) linear trendlines and are solidly confirmed by the 7-day moving averages, proving that Brazil has yet to flatten the curve. 

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4. Though Brazil has a much lower death rate relative to some of the worst-hit European countries, it has one of the highest positivity rates, as well as some of the worst testing credentials in South America. This woeful combination has prevented the curve from flattening.

5. By virtue of being in Southern Hemisphere, Brazil is entering the winter season, meaning it is also in the midst of the conventional allergy and flu season, thus adding to and accentuating the havoc. 

Unfortunately, many local experts believe the reported numbers do not reflect the reality on the ground. "That number of 1 million is much less than the real number of people who have been infected, because there is under-reporting of a magnitude of five to 10 times," said Alexandre Naime Barbosa, a medical professor at the São Paulo State University. "The true number is probably at least 3 million and could even be as high as 10 million people." 

Stay safe!

Data Sources:
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic_in_Brazil

-Sid Som
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