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Considering that South Africa is located in Southern Hemisphere where winter has just set in, this surge could have been further exasperated by the normal winter allergy and flu season.
Highlights...
1. In the last 30 days, the total number of cases surged from 22,583 (5/24) to 106,108 (6/23) -- a whopping 470% increase. Worse yet, in June alone, the total cases jumped another 309%. On 5/1, the total cases stood at a mere 5,951.
2. The daily average caseload in May was 872, while in June thus far it has almost quadrupled to 3,192. Unfortunately, in last ten days, the average has further skyrocketed to 4,037, proving the intensity of the recent surge.
3. The death toll moved up at a much faster pace than the total cases. In less than two months, the death toll escalated from 116 (5/1) to 2,102 (6/23) -- a heartrending 2,000% increase. In June so far, the death toll has tripled from 705 to 2,102.
4. The daily average death tolls are more telling. In May, the daily average was 19, while it has more than tripled to 62 in June. The trend has been upward as the average in last ten days has moved up to 69.The graphs show both are trending up linearly in tandem. The 7-day moving averages are confirming the trends as well.
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5. Though the death and positivity rates are still low, South Africa has the highest per capita cases in Africa at 1,790, while Egypt, a far more populous country, is a distant second at 568. Considering that South Africa is the most technologically advanced country in Africa, it has a very poor per capita testing credentials at 23.3K.
The surge in South Africa is being closely monitored by the public health professionals around the world as the scenario could be duplicated in winter months in countries in Northern Hemisphere.
Stay safe!
Data Sources:
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic_in_South_Africa
-Sid Som
homequant@gmail.com
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