After rapidly surging in June and July, these four contiguous states -- Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, and Tennessee -- have collectively tapered, but the death tolls have yet to do so.
1. The graph shows how the cases rapidly surged between 6/25 and 7/25, followed by a quick peak and a steady taper. The states, individually, have also been exhibiting the same trend (not shown here). While tapering, some occasional upswings are there, but the moving average trendline reveals the smoothed out spikes.
3. The outer end of data trend remains above the exponential regression trendline, proving that the cases have tapered, but the death toll continues to buck the trend. The death trend is a lagging indicator, so it has to conform to its origin -- just a matter of time, perhaps in the coming weeks.
4. While Louisiana's death rate has been slightly above the national average, the other three states have maintained below-average rates. In line with Louisiana's high case totals and death toll relative to its population size, its population rates remain very high. Unfortunately, while the on-going surges for the other three states are initial, Louisiana has resurgence as it had encountered the initial surge in March-April.
5. Of course, there is an emerging silver lining for Louisiana: its testing record has picked up significant momentum, exceeding its neighbors' and national rates. At this current rate, it should be able to test its entire vulnerable population. Mississippi's positivity rate has been registering far above the national rate.
Stay safe!
Data Sources:
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic_in_Louisiana (and others)
-Sid Som
homequant@gmail.com
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| (Clck on the image to enlarge) |
1. The graph shows how the cases rapidly surged between 6/25 and 7/25, followed by a quick peak and a steady taper. The states, individually, have also been exhibiting the same trend (not shown here). While tapering, some occasional upswings are there, but the moving average trendline reveals the smoothed out spikes.
2. Since there is a lag between the open cases and deaths, the death toll graph shows an upswing rather than the taper. The collective toll has yet to peak. In June, the trend was sideways, producing a false peak as the trend abruptly reversed in July and continued into August. Since the cases have significantly tapered, this lagging trend will follow suit in the coming months.
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| (Click on the image to enlarge) |
5. Of course, there is an emerging silver lining for Louisiana: its testing record has picked up significant momentum, exceeding its neighbors' and national rates. At this current rate, it should be able to test its entire vulnerable population. Mississippi's positivity rate has been registering far above the national rate.
Stay safe!
Data Sources:
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic_in_Louisiana (and others)
-Sid Som
homequant@gmail.com
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