Coronavirus Pandemic – Another Grim Milestone as Global Death Toll Reaches One Million

(Click on the image to enlarge)

The pandemic that has caused unimaginable physical and economic misery reaches a new milestone today: The global death toll reaches 1 million. The top three countries -- the US, Brazil, and India -- account for 45% of all deaths.

(Click on the image to enlarge)

The graph of daily cases shows how the three lines meet at the beginning of August, after which the US and Brazil have steadily trended down in tandem, while India has trended up almost linearly. Sadly, India has been registering, on average, 90K cases and 1K deaths daily. Of course, the graph demonstrates the volatility in Brazil and the US's reporting, primarily at weekends. India's reporting has been a lot more consistent.

The correlation matrix also nicely summarizes the trend. Since halfway through the curve, the US and Brazil have been trending down in tandem, the correlation coefficient has been moderately positive at 0.53. On the other hand, since India has diverged on both sides of the curve, it has very low collinearity with Brazil (0.10) and the US (0.17).

(Click on the image to enlarge)

The daily death trends have been very similar, including the reporting volatility. Brazil and the US have been moving in lockstep, whereas India continues to surge. Since 9/1, India has reported at least 1K cases daily, with a daily average of 1,124, while Brazil and the US have reported 770 and 789, respectively. Conversely, in June, India's average stood at 345, compared to Brazil's 1,023 and the US's 641. 

Therefore, the correlations matrix shows a high 0.66 correlation between Brazil and the US, a negative -0.23 correlation between Brazil and India, and a moderately low 0.33 correlation between India and the US.  

(Click on the image to enlarge)

As indicated above, the US, Brazil, and India have accounted for 45% of all deaths, despite owning 54% of the cases. Russia and Mexico have been the distant fourth runners in total cases and deaths. Despite the rapid surge in cases and deaths, India's death rates -- both actual and population-wise -- have remained low. The high positivity rates in Latin America have been well-known. Mexico's high death and positivity rates are tragic, while its testing record remains abysmal. 

Until the vaccines are widely available, the US, Russia, and Spain must maintain the testing momentum; other hard-hit countries -- especially Brazil, Mexico, and India -- must intensify their testing campaigns.

Stay safe!

Data Sources:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic_in_the_United_States

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic_in_Brazil

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic_in_India

-Sid Som

homequant@gmail.com