Coronavirus Pandemic – Ukraine, Poland and Romania are Surging; Belarus and Serbia have Tapered

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While Ukraine, Romania, and Poland tapered in June-July, they resumed a rapid surge in late July and continued into August. The June 1,326 daily average jumped to 1,976 in July and rocketed further to 3,584 in August.

Both 7-day moving average trendlines confirm the taper as well as the rapid reversal of the trend. The standalone Ukraine chart and the associated trendline not only confirm the overall trend but also reveal an exponential degeneration at the outer end of the curve, indicating further escalation soon.

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Though both Belarus and Serbia have tapered, the former peaked and tapered in June while the latter peaked in late July and tapered in August. At the peak, the daily average of Belarus was 850, collapsing to 130 in August. On the other hand, Serbia averaged 354 in July, tapering to 185 in August.

Unfortunately, Belarus has started showing a tepid resurgence in late August, which even the trendline has picked up.

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The above correlation matrix nicely combines the attributes of the two conflicting data trends. Since Ukraine, Romania, and Poland have surged in lockstep, the resulting coefficients are positively correlated. Likewise, they have negative-to-low correlations with Belarus and Serbia. As expected, Belarus and Serbia have relatively high negative correlations.

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Since Belarus had managed to intensify testing among its most vulnerable, it has been credited with one of the region's lowest death rates. Though Ukraine's death rate remains low, its testing credentials are abysmal. Romania has been registering a higher death rate, but its positivity remains low, and the testing is getting better. Serbia has responded well all around.

Ukraine remains the hot spot in the region. It needs better testing and more serious social measures.

Stay safe!

Data Sources: 

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic_in_Ukraine (and others)

-Sid Som

homequant@gmail.com