On the heels of a massive second wave, the original hardest-hit European countries -- Belgium, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, and the UK -- have been facing rapidly-rising death tolls too.
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The above graph shows the death toll in Belgium was virtually non-existent in August. The average daily death toll in August was 6, rising to 37 in October, which is an astounding sixfold jump in two months. Worse yet, in the last seven days, the average has rocketed to 78.
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The trend in France has been very similar to Belgium. In August, the daily death toll averaged 14, tripling to 45 in September, and further tripling to 137 in October. The average in the last seven days has been a whopping 248. The 7-day moving average confirms spectacular growth.
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Though Germany has been experiencing the same second wave, the death toll thus far has not been as dire as its counterparts. The fact that the upper limit of the Y-axis here is 90, compared to France's 300, shows its lack of comparative severity. Still, the daily average went from a mere 5 in August to 27 in October. Unfortunately, in the last seven days, the average escalated to 52, pointing to a rougher period ahead.
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The Italian trend has been as awful as that of France; for example, the daily average rocketed twelvefold, from a mere 6 in August to 72 in October, speaks volumes. Again, the average in the last seven days has been a horrible 152, with the previous two days registering over 200 apiece. Even the 3-day moving average slope not only confirms this skyrocketing trend, but its exponential tilt at the outer end makes public health officials wonder if they would return to the horror days of March and April.
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Spain's scatter plot shows that the recent death trend is not just a passing show -- it's a renewed horror, or at least in the offing. August's daily average of 32 has grown to 132 in September and rising further to 174 in October. Since Spain doesn't report the weekend figures, the data points are somewhat asymmetric.
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The outbreak in the UK is very similar to Italy. After an extended pause, the new wave emerged, and within a short period, it took over like wildfire. The August daily average of 10 has grown to 126 in October, and in the last seven days, it has soared to 217, triggering new worries for the public health officials.
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The regression between the two most contrasting outbreaks and resulting deaths already has a linear relationship in the making, as evidenced by the moderately high r-squared value of 0.673.
Despite the existence of the social mitigation measures and minimal cross-country air travel, these countries face rising deaths, causing more uncertainty of the winter months ahead.
Stay safe!
-Sid Som
homequant@gmail.com
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