Coronavirus Pandemic – A Nightmarish Second Wave Torments France

The following scenario will summarize how France has reverted to a renewed nightmare, with a massive second wave.

On 5/27/20, France occupied the seventh position worldwide with 182,913 cases, rapidly falling to sixteenth on 6/28/20, gradually swinging back to eleventh on 9/27/20, and rocketing to fourth with 1.8M cases on 11/09/20. 

Despite effective treatment and testing advancements in recent months, the death toll has also climbed from 28,596 on 5/27 to 40,987 on 11/09.

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After the initial outbreak was brought under control in May, the daily cases nosedived in June but modestly resurfaced in July with 1,110 on average. However, the average cases rose to 3,724 in August, rapidly trending up to 9,417 in September, then sharply soaring to 25,938 in October, and almost doubling to 48,873 thus far in November. A nightmarish public health scenario indeed.

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France has also been rising rapidly on the chart in total death tolls, recently eclipsing Iran and Spain. The fact that France has lost over 12K lives between June and November is worrying. In terms of daily deaths, the July average was 21, falling to 15 in August, but reversing rapidly to 45 in September, escalating to 156 in October, and tripling to 467 thus far in November. This fast-rising death trend is ominous.

The regression between total cases and total deaths depicts a much smoother trend than the daily event, as the latter is more prone to adjustments and weekend reporting anomalies.  

The total regression graph (top) is quite telling. The overall relationship remained linear until the intersection of 1.5M cases and 37K deaths, past which the death toll has taken an exponential upswing, staying consistently above the linear trendline. Due to the exponential upswing at the outer end of the curve, the exponential trendline (not shown) returns a higher r-squared value of 0.988 than the linear trend's r-squared value of 0.978.  

Though the daily relationship is noisy, a linear trend is nonetheless in the offing.

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Despite France's escalating death tolls, its death rate remains in line with the worldwide average. Unfortunately, it lags behind other hard-hit European countries in testing credentials, resulting in a high positivity rate. The on-going second wave has also bumped up its active rate to an appalling 91%, potentially causing hospitalization issues all over again.  

Today, Pfizer has announced an awe-inspiring 90% efficacy rate on its Phase-3, so others (AstraZeneca, Glaxo, J & J, Moderna, and Merck) are not far behind. If the production goes smoothly, the mass delivery could start as early as Q2-2021. Meanwhile, France has to keep its fingers crossed for a safe winter.

Stay safe!

Data Sources: 

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic_in_France

-Sid Som

homequant@gmail.com

Coronavirus Pandemic – Second Wave in Europe Elevates Death Tolls

On the heels of a massive second wave, the original hardest-hit European countries -- Belgium, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, and the UK -- have been facing rapidly-rising death tolls too.

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The above graph shows the death toll in Belgium was virtually non-existent in August. The average daily death toll in August was 6, rising to 37 in October, which is an astounding sixfold jump in two months. Worse yet, in the last seven days, the average has rocketed to 78.

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The trend in France has been very similar to Belgium. In August, the daily death toll averaged 14, tripling to 45 in September, and further tripling to 137 in October. The average in the last seven days has been a whopping 248. The 7-day moving average confirms spectacular growth. 

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Though Germany has been experiencing the same second wave, the death toll thus far has not been as dire as its counterparts. The fact that the upper limit of the Y-axis here is 90, compared to France's 300, shows its lack of comparative severity. Still, the daily average went from a mere 5 in August to 27 in October. Unfortunately, in the last seven days, the average escalated to 52, pointing to a rougher period ahead.

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The Italian trend has been as awful as that of France; for example, the daily average rocketed twelvefold, from a mere 6 in August to 72 in October, speaks volumes. Again, the average in the last seven days has been a horrible 152, with the previous two days registering over 200 apiece. Even the 3-day moving average slope not only confirms this skyrocketing trend, but its exponential tilt at the outer end makes public health officials wonder if they would return to the horror days of March and April. 

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Spain's scatter plot shows that the recent death trend is not just a passing show -- it's a renewed horror, or at least in the offing. August's daily average of 32 has grown to 132 in September and rising further to 174 in October. Since Spain doesn't report the weekend figures, the data points are somewhat asymmetric.

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The outbreak in the UK is very similar to Italy. After an extended pause, the new wave emerged, and within a short period, it took over like wildfire. The August daily average of 10 has grown to 126 in October, and in the last seven days, it has soared to 217, triggering new worries for the public health officials.

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The regression between the two most contrasting outbreaks and resulting deaths already has a linear relationship in the making, as evidenced by the moderately high r-squared value of 0.673. 

Despite the existence of the social mitigation measures and minimal cross-country air travel, these countries face rising deaths, causing more uncertainty of the winter months ahead. 

Data Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic_in_France

Stay safe!

-Sid Som

homequant@gmail.com

Coronavirus Pandemic – The Original Five in Europe Face Massive Second Wave

The five original hardest-hit European countries -- France, Germany, Italy, Spain, and the UK -- now face a massive second wave. 

A resurgence occurs right after the taper. In this case, it is a clear case of a second wave as this new wave emerged at least three months after the initial taper, meaning the new cases virtually subsided between May and July. Unfortunately, the coupling of this new wave and an exponential upswing makes the imminent flu season scarier, to say the least. 

While the scientists were expecting a new wave in the winter months, they are now baffled by this early wave. 

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The above graph shows France had a mere few hundred daily cases in early July, rising to a couple of thousands, thus leading to an average of 1,110. The average in August tripled to 3,724. Fast forward two months and the October average now stands at 18,756. Lately, on two separate occasions, the daily cases have exceeded a whopping 30,000.

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Though Germany has been experiencing the same second wave, it is not as dire as the other countries. The fact that the upper limit of the Y-axis here is 8,000, compared to France's 35,000 -- shows its lack of comparative severity. Yet, the daily average went from a mere 466 in July to 4,359 in October -- a ninefold escalation. 

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The new wave in Italy is as awful as that of France; for example, the daily average rocketed from a mere 226 in July to 6.418 in October -- a sobering 28-fold increase in just a matter of three months. Even the slope of the 7-day moving average not only confirms this skyrocketing trend, but its exponential tilt makes public health officials wonder if they would return to the horror days of March and April. 

Source: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

Spain's expanded curve (including the initial surge) shows that the second wave is not just a passing show -- it's a massive outbreak. July's daily average of 1,767 has grown to 13,924 in September and rising further to 15,652 in October. Since Spain doesn't report the weekend figures, the spikes are somewhat asymmetric.

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The outbreak in the UK is very similar to Italy. After an extended pause, the new wave emerged, and within a short period, it took over like wildfire. The July daily average of 670 has grown to 15,998 in October, and lately, the cases have exceeded 20,000 on three separate days.

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The regression between the two most contrasting outbreaks has linear collinearity, as evidenced by the high r-squared value of 0.905. 

Despite the existence of the social mitigation measures and minimal cross-country air travel, these countries are again surging simultaneously, causing more uncertainty of the winter months ahead. Meanwhile, the death tolls are also rising daily. 

Data Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic_in_France

Stay safe!

-Sid Som

homequant@gmail.com

Coronavirus Pandemic – France, Spain, and the UK Face Massive Resurgence

France, Spain, and the UK -- the hard-hit countries in Europe initially -- are facing a massive resurgence since early August. Unfortunately, the other hard-hit countries like Belgium, Germany, Italy, and the Netherlands are not too far behind.

Source: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
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France -- As the above graph shows, while the daily cases averaged around 5K during the initial outbreak in the last March-April, it has been averaging 10K lately. Today's (9/30) cases amounted to 12,845. The 7-day moving average confirms the massive resurgence.

Source: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
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Spain -- During the initial outbreak in March-April, Spain's daily cases used to average around 7K. Lately, the same average has been hovering around 10K. For example, Spain reported 11,016 cases today. The 7-day moving average confirms rapid resurgence.

Source: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
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The United Kingdom -- At the peak during the initial outbreak, the UK's daily cases used to be around 5K. Lately, it has been averaging nearly 7K. The 7-day moving average shows the current resurgence as being the beginning stage. Today, it has hit 7,108 cases. 

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The silver lining has been that the death toll has remained extraordinarily low during this resurgence, due primarily to proven medications (like Gilead's Remdesivir) and the ventilators' better availability. Though the UK's death rate remains elevated (residual impact from the initial jolt), its positivity rate has been low. Spain and the UK have been recording meaningful testing credentials.
  
The timing of the resurgence concerns considering that the winter is around the corner, and the flu season is in the offing. Hopefully, the vaccines are around the corner too.

Stay safe!

Data Sources: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

-Sid Som
homequant@gmail.com