Coronavirus Pandemic – The Second Wave in the UK has been Deadlier

Even before the emergence of the UK's variant strain, the massive surge in cases and deaths from the second wave was tormenting the country. 

Now, the faster and deadlier pace of transmission of the new strain has forced parts of the country back into lockdown. Of course, if the current vaccines from Pfizer and Moderna are effective against the new strain, it would be welcome news for the UK and other countries as the public health experts suspect that the new strain has already been incubating elsewhere. 

After an extended remission in the summer, a renewed surge hit the UK in the fall. Still, it promptly tapered in late November, allowing public health professionals to breathe a sigh of relief. Unfortunately, it was extremely short-lived. The above graph shows how vicious the December resurgence has been. The daily cases averaged a mere 4K in September, rocketing to 18K in October, and 23K thus far in December. The 7-day moving average trendline confirms the massive surge.

After the initial breakout was brought under control in early summer, the UK's daily death toll tapered to single digits, only to return fiercely in the fall, and steadily rising ever since. To put the horror of the daily death toll, let's look at the monthly averages: 21 in September, rising to 142 in October, tripling to 396 in November, and escalating further to 461 thus far in December. The most recent trend has been more horrific, as the daily tolls have consistently exceeded the 500-mark. Today (12/23), the UK registered a heart-breaking toll of 744.

Since Italy has also been hard-hit by the second wave, it offers an excellent comparative platform. Obviously, due to the very similar outbreaks, the data points demonstrate collinearity, resulting in high r-squared values. However, the above trendlines also emphasize how the UK's cases and deaths have lately been eclipsing Italy's. Needless to say, if the new strain impacts en masse, the slope will exponentiate.  

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The UK is now third on the European chart with over 2M cases and 69K deaths. Though its positivity rate has remained low, its death rate has been ticking up.

To prevent another Wuhan, it should temporarily close down all of its international passenger airports. 

Stay safe!

Data Sources:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic_in_the_United_Kingdom

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic_in_Italy

-Sid Som

homequant@gmail.com

Coronavirus Pandemic – The Second Wave in Germany Worsens by the Day

While the initial outbreak in Germany was not as dreadful as the other hardest-hit countries in Europe, such as Italy, France, Spain, or the UK, the ongoing second wave has been awful, both in terms of the number of cases and death tolls. 

During the mid-summer month of July, when the pandemic was in remission, the daily cases averaged a meager 466. With the advent of fall, the pandemic returned in full fury as the averages started rising: 1,561 in September and 7,404 in October. Then, November (though 12/5) turned more horrific, and the average rocketed to 18,137, a whopping 39-fold increase from dormant July. The cases exceeded 20K in each of the recent three days. 

Likewise, the daily deaths averaged a mere five in July, rising to 31 in October, and soaring to 230 thus far in Nov-Dec. The fact that the daily tolls have consistently exceeded 400 in recent days and new weekly highs are being recorded perhaps points to a bleak winter until the vaccines are widely available and accepted. The 7-day moving average trendline also confirms the rapidly rising trend, despite the weekend reporting anomalies. 

The regression graph shows that the death rate subsided in the summer, falling significantly below the linear trendline. Unfortunately, as the fall arrived, it promptly turned into an exponential trend, meaning the death rate has been far surpassing the growth in cases. The exponential trend's r-squared value is 0.971 (not shown), which handily beats the r-squared value of the linear trend.

Though Germany has registered over 1.2M confirmed cases, it's still number eleven on the chart, well below the five worst-hit European countries, both in cases and deaths. Moreover, it has one of the lowest death rates globally, coupled with a low positivity rate. Despite the surge, its active status has been well-managed at 27%, while France records at 90%. Surprisingly, its population testing credentials have been lagging behind those of its neighbors.  

Given the surging wave, Germany needs to authorize the emergency use of the available vaccines from Pfizer and Moderna. 

Data Sources:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic_in_Germany 

Stay safe!

-Sid Som

homequant@gmail.com

Coronavirus Pandemic – Italy faces a more Horrific Second Wave

The on-going second wave of the pandemic in Italy has been more horrific than the initial one, requiring renewed lockdowns in the hardest-hit areas, especially tourist hot spots. Unfortunately, the rising death tolls have forced the extended death curve to form into a classic bi-modal one. 

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The above graph depicting the daily cases' full-spectrum tells the story the country has been facing. Here is how the second wave compares with the initial one. At the peak of the initial surge in March and April, the daily cases averaged 3,470 and 3,322, respectively, tapering exponentially to 888 and 263 in the following two months. As the second wave began in September with a daily average of 1,522, it promptly escalated to 11,760 in October. It rocketed to 32,940 in November, which is a whopping 9.5 times higher than the initial peak.

 
 

Despite being in a significantly better treatment environment now, the renewed death curve is fast becoming comparable to the initial one. For instance, during the initial wave in March and April, the daily death tolls averaged 413 and 518, respectively. Though the November average has jumped to 478, it has been escalating daily, with the toll jumping to 753 today and 731 yesterday.  

The regression between the daily cases and daily deaths during the second wave portrays the rising horror. The trendline has become exponential after surging past the intersection point of 25,000 cases and 200 deaths. Therefore, the linear trendline's r-squared value (not shown) is much lower than the r-squared value of the exponential trendline indicated here. As the scatter reveals, the daily deaths have started to further exponentiate after exceeding the 32,500/400 inflection point.  

On 3-31-2020, Itlay was number two worldwide, with 106K cases and 4K deaths, dropping to number six at the end of May with 231K cases and 33K deaths. The extended remission between the surges helped Italy move down to the number ten position (as shown above), although the recent explosion has spiked the caseload up to a massive 1.27M and deaths to 47K. 

The fact that the entire winter is still ahead and the mass distribution of vaccines is at least three months away makes the scenario all the more problematic for Italy, if not mostly grim. 

Stay safe!

Data Sources: 

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic_in_Italy

-Sid Som

homequant@gmail.com 

Coronavirus Pandemic – A Nightmarish Second Wave Torments France

The following scenario will summarize how France has reverted to a renewed nightmare, with a massive second wave.

On 5/27/20, France occupied the seventh position worldwide with 182,913 cases, rapidly falling to sixteenth on 6/28/20, gradually swinging back to eleventh on 9/27/20, and rocketing to fourth with 1.8M cases on 11/09/20. 

Despite effective treatment and testing advancements in recent months, the death toll has also climbed from 28,596 on 5/27 to 40,987 on 11/09.

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After the initial outbreak was brought under control in May, the daily cases nosedived in June but modestly resurfaced in July with 1,110 on average. However, the average cases rose to 3,724 in August, rapidly trending up to 9,417 in September, then sharply soaring to 25,938 in October, and almost doubling to 48,873 thus far in November. A nightmarish public health scenario indeed.

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France has also been rising rapidly on the chart in total death tolls, recently eclipsing Iran and Spain. The fact that France has lost over 12K lives between June and November is worrying. In terms of daily deaths, the July average was 21, falling to 15 in August, but reversing rapidly to 45 in September, escalating to 156 in October, and tripling to 467 thus far in November. This fast-rising death trend is ominous.

The regression between total cases and total deaths depicts a much smoother trend than the daily event, as the latter is more prone to adjustments and weekend reporting anomalies.  

The total regression graph (top) is quite telling. The overall relationship remained linear until the intersection of 1.5M cases and 37K deaths, past which the death toll has taken an exponential upswing, staying consistently above the linear trendline. Due to the exponential upswing at the outer end of the curve, the exponential trendline (not shown) returns a higher r-squared value of 0.988 than the linear trend's r-squared value of 0.978.  

Though the daily relationship is noisy, a linear trend is nonetheless in the offing.

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Despite France's escalating death tolls, its death rate remains in line with the worldwide average. Unfortunately, it lags behind other hard-hit European countries in testing credentials, resulting in a high positivity rate. The on-going second wave has also bumped up its active rate to an appalling 91%, potentially causing hospitalization issues all over again.  

Today, Pfizer has announced an awe-inspiring 90% efficacy rate on its Phase-3, so others (AstraZeneca, Glaxo, J & J, Moderna, and Merck) are not far behind. If the production goes smoothly, the mass delivery could start as early as Q2-2021. Meanwhile, France has to keep its fingers crossed for a safe winter.

Stay safe!

Data Sources: 

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic_in_France

-Sid Som

homequant@gmail.com

Coronavirus Pandemic – 50M Cases Globally and 10M in the US

 

Source: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

(Click on the image to enlarge)

Today, the coronavirus pandemic handed in two more grim milestones: The world and the USA registered 50M and 10M cases, respectively, silencing the critics and non-believers of the pandemic or of the horror it has brought to humanity. Unfortunately, the US thus far accounts for 20% of all cases and 19% of all deaths.

The above graphs show how a second wave has been tormenting the world, not only in terms of the explosion of cases but also in rapidly increasing death tolls. During the past summer (June-September 2020), the daily cases used to average around 300K cases. Lately, the average has been doubling -- a tumultuous second wave indeed!

Of course, there is a silver lining amid this grave scenario, which is the low 3% worldwide death rate -- a significantly lower rate than the initial rate that devasted the world during the first wave, thanks to innovative drugmakers like Gilead and Regeneron, coupled with the more accessible ventilators.

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As indicated above, the US just registered 10M confirmed cases, remaining at the top of the hardest-hit list, followed by India with 8.5M and Brazil with 5.5M. Fortunately, the rest of the hardest-hits have not reached the 3M mark yet. 

Though India has three million more cases than Brazil, it has recorded 35K fewer deaths. Despite a fast-declining death rate, Mexico continues to deal with a high ten percentage. Iran's death rate remains conspicuously high as well. 

Due to the inadequate testing, the Latin American hardest-hits have also been confronted with some of the world's highest positivity rates.

Data Source: 

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

Stay safe!

-Sid Som

homequant@gmail.com

 

Coronavirus Pandemic – Second Wave in Europe Elevates Death Tolls

On the heels of a massive second wave, the original hardest-hit European countries -- Belgium, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, and the UK -- have been facing rapidly-rising death tolls too.

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The above graph shows the death toll in Belgium was virtually non-existent in August. The average daily death toll in August was 6, rising to 37 in October, which is an astounding sixfold jump in two months. Worse yet, in the last seven days, the average has rocketed to 78.

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The trend in France has been very similar to Belgium. In August, the daily death toll averaged 14, tripling to 45 in September, and further tripling to 137 in October. The average in the last seven days has been a whopping 248. The 7-day moving average confirms spectacular growth. 

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Though Germany has been experiencing the same second wave, the death toll thus far has not been as dire as its counterparts. The fact that the upper limit of the Y-axis here is 90, compared to France's 300, shows its lack of comparative severity. Still, the daily average went from a mere 5 in August to 27 in October. Unfortunately, in the last seven days, the average escalated to 52, pointing to a rougher period ahead.

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The Italian trend has been as awful as that of France; for example, the daily average rocketed twelvefold, from a mere 6 in August to 72 in October, speaks volumes. Again, the average in the last seven days has been a horrible 152, with the previous two days registering over 200 apiece. Even the 3-day moving average slope not only confirms this skyrocketing trend, but its exponential tilt at the outer end makes public health officials wonder if they would return to the horror days of March and April. 

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Spain's scatter plot shows that the recent death trend is not just a passing show -- it's a renewed horror, or at least in the offing. August's daily average of 32 has grown to 132 in September and rising further to 174 in October. Since Spain doesn't report the weekend figures, the data points are somewhat asymmetric.

(Click on the image to enlarge)

The outbreak in the UK is very similar to Italy. After an extended pause, the new wave emerged, and within a short period, it took over like wildfire. The August daily average of 10 has grown to 126 in October, and in the last seven days, it has soared to 217, triggering new worries for the public health officials.

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The regression between the two most contrasting outbreaks and resulting deaths already has a linear relationship in the making, as evidenced by the moderately high r-squared value of 0.673. 

Despite the existence of the social mitigation measures and minimal cross-country air travel, these countries face rising deaths, causing more uncertainty of the winter months ahead. 

Data Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic_in_France

Stay safe!

-Sid Som

homequant@gmail.com

Coronavirus Pandemic – The Original Five in Europe Face Massive Second Wave

The five original hardest-hit European countries -- France, Germany, Italy, Spain, and the UK -- now face a massive second wave. 

A resurgence occurs right after the taper. In this case, it is a clear case of a second wave as this new wave emerged at least three months after the initial taper, meaning the new cases virtually subsided between May and July. Unfortunately, the coupling of this new wave and an exponential upswing makes the imminent flu season scarier, to say the least. 

While the scientists were expecting a new wave in the winter months, they are now baffled by this early wave. 

(Click on the image to enlarge)

The above graph shows France had a mere few hundred daily cases in early July, rising to a couple of thousands, thus leading to an average of 1,110. The average in August tripled to 3,724. Fast forward two months and the October average now stands at 18,756. Lately, on two separate occasions, the daily cases have exceeded a whopping 30,000.

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Though Germany has been experiencing the same second wave, it is not as dire as the other countries. The fact that the upper limit of the Y-axis here is 8,000, compared to France's 35,000 -- shows its lack of comparative severity. Yet, the daily average went from a mere 466 in July to 4,359 in October -- a ninefold escalation. 

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The new wave in Italy is as awful as that of France; for example, the daily average rocketed from a mere 226 in July to 6.418 in October -- a sobering 28-fold increase in just a matter of three months. Even the slope of the 7-day moving average not only confirms this skyrocketing trend, but its exponential tilt makes public health officials wonder if they would return to the horror days of March and April. 

Source: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

Spain's expanded curve (including the initial surge) shows that the second wave is not just a passing show -- it's a massive outbreak. July's daily average of 1,767 has grown to 13,924 in September and rising further to 15,652 in October. Since Spain doesn't report the weekend figures, the spikes are somewhat asymmetric.

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The outbreak in the UK is very similar to Italy. After an extended pause, the new wave emerged, and within a short period, it took over like wildfire. The July daily average of 670 has grown to 15,998 in October, and lately, the cases have exceeded 20,000 on three separate days.

(Click on the image to enlarge)

The regression between the two most contrasting outbreaks has linear collinearity, as evidenced by the high r-squared value of 0.905. 

Despite the existence of the social mitigation measures and minimal cross-country air travel, these countries are again surging simultaneously, causing more uncertainty of the winter months ahead. Meanwhile, the death tolls are also rising daily. 

Data Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic_in_France

Stay safe!

-Sid Som

homequant@gmail.com

Coronavirus Pandemic – France, Spain, and the UK Face Massive Resurgence

France, Spain, and the UK -- the hard-hit countries in Europe initially -- are facing a massive resurgence since early August. Unfortunately, the other hard-hit countries like Belgium, Germany, Italy, and the Netherlands are not too far behind.

Source: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
Click on the image to enlarge

France -- As the above graph shows, while the daily cases averaged around 5K during the initial outbreak in the last March-April, it has been averaging 10K lately. Today's (9/30) cases amounted to 12,845. The 7-day moving average confirms the massive resurgence.

Source: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
Click on the image to enlarge

Spain -- During the initial outbreak in March-April, Spain's daily cases used to average around 7K. Lately, the same average has been hovering around 10K. For example, Spain reported 11,016 cases today. The 7-day moving average confirms rapid resurgence.

Source: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
Click on the image to enlarge

The United Kingdom -- At the peak during the initial outbreak, the UK's daily cases used to be around 5K. Lately, it has been averaging nearly 7K. The 7-day moving average shows the current resurgence as being the beginning stage. Today, it has hit 7,108 cases. 

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The silver lining has been that the death toll has remained extraordinarily low during this resurgence, due primarily to proven medications (like Gilead's Remdesivir) and the ventilators' better availability. Though the UK's death rate remains elevated (residual impact from the initial jolt), its positivity rate has been low. Spain and the UK have been recording meaningful testing credentials.
  
The timing of the resurgence concerns considering that the winter is around the corner, and the flu season is in the offing. Hopefully, the vaccines are around the corner too.

Stay safe!

Data Sources: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

-Sid Som
homequant@gmail.com

Coronavirus Pandemic – Another Grim Milestone as Global Death Toll Reaches One Million

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The pandemic that has caused unimaginable physical and economic misery reaches a new milestone today: The global death toll reaches 1 million. The top three countries -- the US, Brazil, and India -- account for 45% of all deaths.

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The graph of daily cases shows how the three lines meet at the beginning of August, after which the US and Brazil have steadily trended down in tandem, while India has trended up almost linearly. Sadly, India has been registering, on average, 90K cases and 1K deaths daily. Of course, the graph demonstrates the volatility in Brazil and the US's reporting, primarily at weekends. India's reporting has been a lot more consistent.

The correlation matrix also nicely summarizes the trend. Since halfway through the curve, the US and Brazil have been trending down in tandem, the correlation coefficient has been moderately positive at 0.53. On the other hand, since India has diverged on both sides of the curve, it has very low collinearity with Brazil (0.10) and the US (0.17).

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The daily death trends have been very similar, including the reporting volatility. Brazil and the US have been moving in lockstep, whereas India continues to surge. Since 9/1, India has reported at least 1K cases daily, with a daily average of 1,124, while Brazil and the US have reported 770 and 789, respectively. Conversely, in June, India's average stood at 345, compared to Brazil's 1,023 and the US's 641. 

Therefore, the correlations matrix shows a high 0.66 correlation between Brazil and the US, a negative -0.23 correlation between Brazil and India, and a moderately low 0.33 correlation between India and the US.  

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As indicated above, the US, Brazil, and India have accounted for 45% of all deaths, despite owning 54% of the cases. Russia and Mexico have been the distant fourth runners in total cases and deaths. Despite the rapid surge in cases and deaths, India's death rates -- both actual and population-wise -- have remained low. The high positivity rates in Latin America have been well-known. Mexico's high death and positivity rates are tragic, while its testing record remains abysmal. 

Until the vaccines are widely available, the US, Russia, and Spain must maintain the testing momentum; other hard-hit countries -- especially Brazil, Mexico, and India -- must intensify their testing campaigns.

Stay safe!

Data Sources:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic_in_the_United_States

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic_in_Brazil

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic_in_India

-Sid Som

homequant@gmail.com

  

Coronavirus Pandemic – Ukraine, Poland and Romania are Surging; Belarus and Serbia have Tapered

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While Ukraine, Romania, and Poland tapered in June-July, they resumed a rapid surge in late July and continued into August. The June 1,326 daily average jumped to 1,976 in July and rocketed further to 3,584 in August.

Both 7-day moving average trendlines confirm the taper as well as the rapid reversal of the trend. The standalone Ukraine chart and the associated trendline not only confirm the overall trend but also reveal an exponential degeneration at the outer end of the curve, indicating further escalation soon.

(Click on the image to enlarge)

Though both Belarus and Serbia have tapered, the former peaked and tapered in June while the latter peaked in late July and tapered in August. At the peak, the daily average of Belarus was 850, collapsing to 130 in August. On the other hand, Serbia averaged 354 in July, tapering to 185 in August.

Unfortunately, Belarus has started showing a tepid resurgence in late August, which even the trendline has picked up.

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The above correlation matrix nicely combines the attributes of the two conflicting data trends. Since Ukraine, Romania, and Poland have surged in lockstep, the resulting coefficients are positively correlated. Likewise, they have negative-to-low correlations with Belarus and Serbia. As expected, Belarus and Serbia have relatively high negative correlations.

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Since Belarus had managed to intensify testing among its most vulnerable, it has been credited with one of the region's lowest death rates. Though Ukraine's death rate remains low, its testing credentials are abysmal. Romania has been registering a higher death rate, but its positivity remains low, and the testing is getting better. Serbia has responded well all around.

Ukraine remains the hot spot in the region. It needs better testing and more serious social measures.

Stay safe!

Data Sources: 

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic_in_Ukraine (and others)

-Sid Som

homequant@gmail.com