The on-going second wave of the pandemic in Italy has been more horrific than the initial one, requiring renewed lockdowns in the hardest-hit areas, especially tourist hot spots. Unfortunately, the rising death tolls have forced the extended death curve to form into a classic bi-modal one.
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Despite being in a significantly better treatment environment now, the renewed death curve is fast becoming comparable to the initial one. For instance, during the initial wave in March and April, the daily death tolls averaged 413 and 518, respectively. Though the November average has jumped to 478, it has been escalating daily, with the toll jumping to 753 today and 731 yesterday.
The regression between the daily cases and daily deaths during the second wave portrays the rising horror. The trendline has become exponential after surging past the intersection point of 25,000 cases and 200 deaths. Therefore, the linear trendline's r-squared value (not shown) is much lower than the r-squared value of the exponential trendline indicated here. As the scatter reveals, the daily deaths have started to further exponentiate after exceeding the 32,500/400 inflection point.
On 3-31-2020, Itlay was number two worldwide, with 106K cases and 4K deaths, dropping to number six at the end of May with 231K cases and 33K deaths. The extended remission between the surges helped Italy move down to the number ten position (as shown above), although the recent explosion has spiked the caseload up to a massive 1.27M and deaths to 47K.
The fact that the entire winter is still ahead and the mass distribution of vaccines is at least three months away makes the scenario all the more problematic for Italy, if not mostly grim.
Stay safe!
Data Sources:
-Sid Som
homequant@gmail.com
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