As we all know, Brazil and Mexico have been the two hardest-hit countries in Latin America. Lately, Mexico reached two somber milestones: One million cases and a hundred thousand deaths. The relationship exhibits the horror behind the numbers, meaning while the worldwide pandemic death rate has been a mere 2.4%, Mexico faces a whopping 9.8%, one of the highest globally.
The above graph shows that Mexico's daily cases have been gradually trending up after tapering in late September. The July average was 6,429, dropping to 4,789 in September, but promptly reverting up to 5,089 and 5,314 in October and November. Today, Mexico has registered a new daily high of 9,187. Even the daily death tolls have started climbing; for instance, the July daily deaths averaged 606, falling to 441 in September and moving sideways since then, with the November average of 451.
The regression reveals how the rate of daily deaths has been outpacing daily cases after the intersection point of 5,500 cases and 400 deaths. In other words, the scatter shows the cluster above the linear regression line is significantly heavier than its counterpart below the line. Though the angle remains at 45 degrees, the scatter's lack of tightness results in a low r-squared value. Of course, the r-squared value rises significantly between the 5th and 95th percentiles of the death rates.
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| (Click on the image to enlarge) |
Though in terms of totals cases, Mexico is number eleven globally, its death rate eclipses those of the top ten by a factor of three. On the other hand, Argentina, Brazil, and Colombia have been registering rates below three percentage points. Mexico also has one of the world's highest positivity rates, making the pandemic all the more devastating for the ordinary people. Atop that, Mexico has the worst testing credentials in Latin America.
Sadly, the gradual rise in both cases and deaths does not bode well for Mexico, considering the entire winter is ahead of it, and vaccines are at phase-3, at best.
Stay safe!
Data Sources:
-Sid Som
homequant@gmail.com
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