Coronavirus Pandemic – The Second Wave in the UK has been Deadlier

Even before the emergence of the UK's variant strain, the massive surge in cases and deaths from the second wave was tormenting the country. 

Now, the faster and deadlier pace of transmission of the new strain has forced parts of the country back into lockdown. Of course, if the current vaccines from Pfizer and Moderna are effective against the new strain, it would be welcome news for the UK and other countries as the public health experts suspect that the new strain has already been incubating elsewhere. 

After an extended remission in the summer, a renewed surge hit the UK in the fall. Still, it promptly tapered in late November, allowing public health professionals to breathe a sigh of relief. Unfortunately, it was extremely short-lived. The above graph shows how vicious the December resurgence has been. The daily cases averaged a mere 4K in September, rocketing to 18K in October, and 23K thus far in December. The 7-day moving average trendline confirms the massive surge.

After the initial breakout was brought under control in early summer, the UK's daily death toll tapered to single digits, only to return fiercely in the fall, and steadily rising ever since. To put the horror of the daily death toll, let's look at the monthly averages: 21 in September, rising to 142 in October, tripling to 396 in November, and escalating further to 461 thus far in December. The most recent trend has been more horrific, as the daily tolls have consistently exceeded the 500-mark. Today (12/23), the UK registered a heart-breaking toll of 744.

Since Italy has also been hard-hit by the second wave, it offers an excellent comparative platform. Obviously, due to the very similar outbreaks, the data points demonstrate collinearity, resulting in high r-squared values. However, the above trendlines also emphasize how the UK's cases and deaths have lately been eclipsing Italy's. Needless to say, if the new strain impacts en masse, the slope will exponentiate.  

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The UK is now third on the European chart with over 2M cases and 69K deaths. Though its positivity rate has remained low, its death rate has been ticking up.

To prevent another Wuhan, it should temporarily close down all of its international passenger airports. 

Stay safe!

Data Sources:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic_in_the_United_Kingdom

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic_in_Italy

-Sid Som

homequant@gmail.com

Coronavirus Pandemic – How the US Reached 300K Death Toll

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At the outset of the onslaught, when the White House Task Force projected a high death toll of 65K, the people worldwide woke up in fear and awe. Fast forward nine months: Yesterday, the widely-followed Johns Hopkins' Coronavirus Resource site flashed that the pandemic-related confirmed death toll in the US had crossed 300K. 

Of course, we have much to cheer on today as a couple of vaccines are ready (or being readied) for mass distribution, starting with the population's high-risk segments.

Source: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

 

Unfortunately, the actual death toll eclipsed the dire predictions in no time, hitting 100K on May 22, i.e., within three months from the first fatality, forcing the public health researchers to revert to the drawing board to tweak their vastly-flawed models that under-predicted, to say the least. New York and New Jersey collectively contributed roughly 43% of the overall death toll.

  

Source: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

The rate of growth in the death toll slightly eased while reaching 200K on September 15, thanks to the newly-approved treatment drugs like Gilead's Remdesivir and Regeneron's Regn-Cov2, replacing the malaria drug Hydrochloroqueen that was initially used by many hospitals to treat Covid patients. During this phase, while the Northeast had eased, the Sunbelt caught on with a fury.

Source: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

The above graphs demonstrate how the death rate lately has been accelerating, with a backward-bending tilt. Like the way we reached the first 100K deaths in just three months, we achieved the same distinction during the recent phase as we reached the 300K mark, despite all of the advancements in treatments and logistics.   

Now that the vaccines are here, hopefully the next milestone will be unremarkable.

Stay safe!

Data Sources:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic_in_the_United_States

-Sid Som

homequant@gmail.com

Coronavirus Pandemic – The Second Wave in Germany Worsens by the Day

While the initial outbreak in Germany was not as dreadful as the other hardest-hit countries in Europe, such as Italy, France, Spain, or the UK, the ongoing second wave has been awful, both in terms of the number of cases and death tolls. 

During the mid-summer month of July, when the pandemic was in remission, the daily cases averaged a meager 466. With the advent of fall, the pandemic returned in full fury as the averages started rising: 1,561 in September and 7,404 in October. Then, November (though 12/5) turned more horrific, and the average rocketed to 18,137, a whopping 39-fold increase from dormant July. The cases exceeded 20K in each of the recent three days. 

Likewise, the daily deaths averaged a mere five in July, rising to 31 in October, and soaring to 230 thus far in Nov-Dec. The fact that the daily tolls have consistently exceeded 400 in recent days and new weekly highs are being recorded perhaps points to a bleak winter until the vaccines are widely available and accepted. The 7-day moving average trendline also confirms the rapidly rising trend, despite the weekend reporting anomalies. 

The regression graph shows that the death rate subsided in the summer, falling significantly below the linear trendline. Unfortunately, as the fall arrived, it promptly turned into an exponential trend, meaning the death rate has been far surpassing the growth in cases. The exponential trend's r-squared value is 0.971 (not shown), which handily beats the r-squared value of the linear trend.

Though Germany has registered over 1.2M confirmed cases, it's still number eleven on the chart, well below the five worst-hit European countries, both in cases and deaths. Moreover, it has one of the lowest death rates globally, coupled with a low positivity rate. Despite the surge, its active status has been well-managed at 27%, while France records at 90%. Surprisingly, its population testing credentials have been lagging behind those of its neighbors.  

Given the surging wave, Germany needs to authorize the emergency use of the available vaccines from Pfizer and Moderna. 

Data Sources:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic_in_Germany 

Stay safe!

-Sid Som

homequant@gmail.com

Coronavirus Pandemic – The US faces a Massive Second Wave

The ongoing second wave of the pandemic has been fast and furious. Case in point: At the initial stages of the onslaught, the scientific community had projected the death toll to be around 65K; today, it stands at 276K. Similarly, at the tail-end of the initial surge in June, there were roughly 2.5M cases, exploding to over 14M as of today.

After a remission of the initial surge between July and September, the second wave hit the US. It initially hit the Sunbelt, extending into the middle corridor and on to the Northeast in recent weeks. While the daily cases averaged 38.959 in September, it escalated to 58,743 in October, rocketing to 139,702 in November. The 7-day moving average trendline amply confirms the explosion.  

Though the daily death toll has steadily risen during the second wave, the growth rate has been significantly lower than the initial encounter. For instance, the daily deaths averaged 761 in September, flat-lining in October to 746, and escalating to 1,176 in November. While the recent jump is significant, it is 1.5 times the September toll, compared to 3.6 times in case surge.

The above regression graph makes a case for the tapering death rate. Since the case surge has been outpacing the death rate, the line of best fit has been logarithmic with an r-squared value of 0.981, exceeding the r-squared value of 0.962 from the linear fit. The slope also demonstrates that the death toll has started falling after the intersection point of 10M cases and 205K deaths, forming the logarithmic (curvilinear) tilt.

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Though the US owns 22% of the world's cases and the highest population-case rate in the western world, it has a lower death rate than the worldwide average. Despite a higher positivity rate than most of Europe, it has one of the world's best testing credentials. Due to the on-going second wave in Europe and the US, the active rates continue to climb, whereas the Latin American countries have experienced significant drops.

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In the US, Texas, California, and Florida have been the three hardest-hit states, followed by Illinois and New York. The severity of the initial jolt keeps New York in the top five, with the highest death rate in the country. Lately, Wisconsin has seen a big jump in positivity rate, though Texas, Georgia, and Pennsylvania are also rising fast. Pennsylvania has one of the worst testing records as well.

Today, the US recorded the highest daily death toll of 2,611. Hopefully, Pfizer and Moderna will receive the Emergency Use Authorization (EUA) later in the week so the vaccination could start.

Stay safe!

Data Sources:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

Wikipedia -- COVID-19 pandemic in the United States

-Sid Som

homequant@gmail.com

Coronavirus Pandemic – Stock Market Milestones: Dow 30K and Nasdaq 12K

Though the major stock indices, including Dow and Nasdaq, fell sharply at the onslaught of the pandemic in March, they have made a spectacular turnaround since then, hitting new all-time highs. Dow reached a historic 30,000 milestone while Nasdaq crossed 12,000. 

After swooning to 18,592 on 3/23 from a February high of 29,551, Dow continued its steady upward swing until 9/1 when it hit 29,101, coming very close to the previous high. It went through a mini-correction in September, falling to 26,763, creating a good re-entry opportunity for the new investors and those who buy the dips. On 11/16, when Pfizer announced its awe-inspiring Phase-3 vaccine results, the index eclipsed the February high, and on 11/24, it crossed the historic 30,000 marks and recovering 11,454 from the March lows.

Though the Nasdaq's story has been similar to that of Dow -- plummeting in March as the pandemic gained momentum -- it has shown more strength since the beginning of the recovery, trending more linearly than the Dow.  For instance, on 6/18, Nasdaq surged past the February high of 9,817 and hit 12,056 on 9/2, making a historic comeback and achieving such momentous feats well ahead of Dow.  

The above regression scatter shows how Nasdaq had outperformed Dow after the intersection point of 26,000 and 9,500. To put it in proper perspective, during the recovery period between 4/1 and 11/25, Dow has bounced back 32%, while Nasdaq has jumped 53% -- a stunning 20% spread, which is why the r-squared value has been a moderate 0.588, rather than the usual lockstep value of 0.90 and above.

Here is a look at the market achievement from a more humane perspective: The pandemic made the rich significantly richer, while the poor further regressed with more all-around devastation, paving the way for a more rapid widening of the ever-expanding wealth gap.

To save the poor and middle-class from the cyclical downturns and future calamities, we need to introduce Universal Basic Income (UBI) as soon as possible so that they can also cheer the Dow 40,000 in chorus. Right now, they are just silent spectators, worrying about money for rent and utilities. Worse yet, in poorer countries, millions of children are going to bed hungry while their mothers are starving.

What a spectacular achievement!

Stay safe!

-Sid Som

homequant@gmail.com

Coronavirus Pandemic – Mexico Registers Two Sad Milestones

 

Source: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

As we all know, Brazil and Mexico have been the two hardest-hit countries in Latin America. Lately, Mexico reached two somber milestones: One million cases and a hundred thousand deaths. The relationship exhibits the horror behind the numbers, meaning while the worldwide pandemic death rate has been a mere 2.4%, Mexico faces a whopping 9.8%, one of the highest globally.

The above graph shows that Mexico's daily cases have been gradually trending up after tapering in late September. The July average was 6,429, dropping to 4,789 in September, but promptly reverting up to 5,089 and 5,314 in October and November. Today, Mexico has registered a new daily high of 9,187. Even the daily death tolls have started climbing; for instance, the July daily deaths averaged 606, falling to 441 in September and moving sideways since then, with the November average of 451.

The regression reveals how the rate of daily deaths has been outpacing daily cases after the intersection point of 5,500 cases and 400 deaths. In other words, the scatter shows the cluster above the linear regression line is significantly heavier than its counterpart below the line. Though the angle remains at 45 degrees, the scatter's lack of tightness results in a low r-squared value. Of course, the r-squared value rises significantly between the 5th and 95th percentiles of the death rates.

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Though in terms of totals cases, Mexico is number eleven globally, its death rate eclipses those of the top ten by a factor of three. On the other hand, Argentina, Brazil, and Colombia have been registering rates below three percentage points. Mexico also has one of the world's highest positivity rates, making the pandemic all the more devastating for the ordinary people. Atop that, Mexico has the worst testing credentials in Latin America. 

Sadly, the gradual rise in both cases and deaths does not bode well for Mexico, considering the entire winter is ahead of it, and vaccines are at phase-3, at best. 

Stay safe!

Data Sources: 

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

Wikipedia COVID-19 pandemic in Mexico

-Sid Som

homequant@gmail.com

Coronavirus Pandemic – Italy faces a more Horrific Second Wave

The on-going second wave of the pandemic in Italy has been more horrific than the initial one, requiring renewed lockdowns in the hardest-hit areas, especially tourist hot spots. Unfortunately, the rising death tolls have forced the extended death curve to form into a classic bi-modal one. 

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The above graph depicting the daily cases' full-spectrum tells the story the country has been facing. Here is how the second wave compares with the initial one. At the peak of the initial surge in March and April, the daily cases averaged 3,470 and 3,322, respectively, tapering exponentially to 888 and 263 in the following two months. As the second wave began in September with a daily average of 1,522, it promptly escalated to 11,760 in October. It rocketed to 32,940 in November, which is a whopping 9.5 times higher than the initial peak.

 
 

Despite being in a significantly better treatment environment now, the renewed death curve is fast becoming comparable to the initial one. For instance, during the initial wave in March and April, the daily death tolls averaged 413 and 518, respectively. Though the November average has jumped to 478, it has been escalating daily, with the toll jumping to 753 today and 731 yesterday.  

The regression between the daily cases and daily deaths during the second wave portrays the rising horror. The trendline has become exponential after surging past the intersection point of 25,000 cases and 200 deaths. Therefore, the linear trendline's r-squared value (not shown) is much lower than the r-squared value of the exponential trendline indicated here. As the scatter reveals, the daily deaths have started to further exponentiate after exceeding the 32,500/400 inflection point.  

On 3-31-2020, Itlay was number two worldwide, with 106K cases and 4K deaths, dropping to number six at the end of May with 231K cases and 33K deaths. The extended remission between the surges helped Italy move down to the number ten position (as shown above), although the recent explosion has spiked the caseload up to a massive 1.27M and deaths to 47K. 

The fact that the entire winter is still ahead and the mass distribution of vaccines is at least three months away makes the scenario all the more problematic for Italy, if not mostly grim. 

Stay safe!

Data Sources: 

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic_in_Italy

-Sid Som

homequant@gmail.com 

Coronavirus Pandemic – As New Frontrunners Emerge in Covid-19 Vaccine

 

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Though over two dozen companies are developing the Covid-19 vaccine, only ten companies are considered the frontrunners as they are already conducting the Phase-3, or at the very least, the Phase-2 trials.  

Among the ten, seven are well-established American and European multi-national corporations (MNCs). At the same time, the other three -- BioNTech (BNTX), Moderna (MRNA), and Novavax (NVAX) -- are mostly momentum companies, gaining significant notoriety in recent months for success in initial trials leading to this vaccine. To put the comparison in a proper perspective, let's compare the annual revenues: Johnson and Johnson's (JNJ) $80B vs. Novavax's $19M, Pfizer's (PFE) $51B vs. Moderna's (MRNA) $60M, and Merck's $47B vs. BioNTech's (BNTX) $122M. 

The only reason the momentum trio has been cited alongside the seven MNCs is their recent ascendence in the Covid-19 vaccine trials. Of course, BioNTech has been partnering with Pfizer, perhaps making it a much safer momentum player. 

As expected, the above correlation matrix shows how the trio shares high correlations among them but low to negative correlations with MNCs depending on the annual performance; for instance, while the trio has negative correlations with Glaxo and Eli Lilly, it has moderately high correlations with the better-performing MNCs like AstraZeneca, Pfizer, and Sanofi. 

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The momentum trio has registered significant gains this year: Novavax 589%, Moderna 201%, and BioNTech 100%. Among the MNCs, AstraZeneca's (AZN) 31% return is the highest, followed by Pfizer's 22% and Sanofi's (SNY) 19%. Glaxo's (GSK) 3% and Eli Lilly's (LLY) 4% are at the bottom. Most of the MNC gains have come in November as the investors are now betting on better-than-expected Phase-3 data.

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In the last two months (since 09/15), BioNTech (58%) and Moderna (34%) remain the two standout winners, while Novavax collapsed (-12%), leading to a negative correlation between Moderna and Novavax. MNCs have generated low to negative (+/-5%) returns, so their correlations remain elevated. Surprisingly, AstraZeneca's prior 0.23 correlation with Glaxo has now jumped to 0.90.

On the heels of last Monday's (11/9) great news from Pfizer, i.e., 90% effectiveness on Phase-3 trial, the market may see a new flight to quality, as investors rotate capital from the high-flying momentum stocks to the MNCs. 

Stay safe!

Data Source: Yahoo Finance and Macrotrends

Disclaimer: The author is not advocating any of the stocks listed here. Consult your Registered Rep, RIA, or Financial Planner for an appropriate asset allocation model and the suitability of stocks and other holdings for you.

-Sid Som

homequant@gmail.com

Coronavirus Pandemic – A Nightmarish Second Wave Torments France

The following scenario will summarize how France has reverted to a renewed nightmare, with a massive second wave.

On 5/27/20, France occupied the seventh position worldwide with 182,913 cases, rapidly falling to sixteenth on 6/28/20, gradually swinging back to eleventh on 9/27/20, and rocketing to fourth with 1.8M cases on 11/09/20. 

Despite effective treatment and testing advancements in recent months, the death toll has also climbed from 28,596 on 5/27 to 40,987 on 11/09.

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After the initial outbreak was brought under control in May, the daily cases nosedived in June but modestly resurfaced in July with 1,110 on average. However, the average cases rose to 3,724 in August, rapidly trending up to 9,417 in September, then sharply soaring to 25,938 in October, and almost doubling to 48,873 thus far in November. A nightmarish public health scenario indeed.

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France has also been rising rapidly on the chart in total death tolls, recently eclipsing Iran and Spain. The fact that France has lost over 12K lives between June and November is worrying. In terms of daily deaths, the July average was 21, falling to 15 in August, but reversing rapidly to 45 in September, escalating to 156 in October, and tripling to 467 thus far in November. This fast-rising death trend is ominous.

The regression between total cases and total deaths depicts a much smoother trend than the daily event, as the latter is more prone to adjustments and weekend reporting anomalies.  

The total regression graph (top) is quite telling. The overall relationship remained linear until the intersection of 1.5M cases and 37K deaths, past which the death toll has taken an exponential upswing, staying consistently above the linear trendline. Due to the exponential upswing at the outer end of the curve, the exponential trendline (not shown) returns a higher r-squared value of 0.988 than the linear trend's r-squared value of 0.978.  

Though the daily relationship is noisy, a linear trend is nonetheless in the offing.

(Click on the image to enlarge)

Despite France's escalating death tolls, its death rate remains in line with the worldwide average. Unfortunately, it lags behind other hard-hit European countries in testing credentials, resulting in a high positivity rate. The on-going second wave has also bumped up its active rate to an appalling 91%, potentially causing hospitalization issues all over again.  

Today, Pfizer has announced an awe-inspiring 90% efficacy rate on its Phase-3, so others (AstraZeneca, Glaxo, J & J, Moderna, and Merck) are not far behind. If the production goes smoothly, the mass delivery could start as early as Q2-2021. Meanwhile, France has to keep its fingers crossed for a safe winter.

Stay safe!

Data Sources: 

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic_in_France

-Sid Som

homequant@gmail.com

Coronavirus Pandemic – Using Vaccine ETF as an Investment Vehicle

 

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An Exchange Traded Fund (ETF) is an excellent investment vehicle for those who are risk-averse to individual stocks and are uncomfortable with mutual funds' restrictions.  

In 2020, as the pandemic became frightening, many Bio/Pharma ETFs changed their primary holding to focus on the pandemic. In the process, broadly, two distinct groups emerged, wherein one focused on the development of vaccines, while the other concentrated on the treatment and administration. While they are not mutually exclusive, their primary holdings, however, are reasonably different. For example, the PPH ETF comprises the major vaccine development companies like AstraZeneca, Pfizer, J & J, Eli Lilly, Merck, Sanofi, etc. primarily, while the BBH ETF focuses on treatment providers and momentum stocks like Amgen, Biogen, Gilead, Regeneron, Moderna, etc. 

Since vaccine development is a medium-to-long-term venture, the development ETFs hardly took off this year, whereas the treatment and momentum ETFs produced some standout returns. The above two graphs representing the two sub-sectors convincingly prove the point: PTH has returned 52% while PPH has been hovering on the negative-return zone.

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Due to the similarity of primary holdings, the development ETFs share high positive correlations among themselves but much lesser correlations with the treatment and momentum ETFs. Conversely, the treatment and momentum ETFs share a high degree of correlations among themselves, while much lesser correlations with the development sub-group. 

BBH, a treatment and momentum ETF, shares very high correlations of 0.9873, 0.9031, and 0.9474, respectively, with the other three ETFs in the same sub-group, namely IBB, PTH, and XB, but significantly lower correlations with the development ETFs. On the other hand, XPH, a development ETF, shares very high correlations with its counterparts in the sub-group and much lower correlations with the other sub-group.

Therefore, one needs to pick a complementary combination of ETFs to play the Covid-19 vaccine arena effectively.

Data Source: Yahoo Finance

Disclaimer: The author is not advocating any of the ETFs/stocks listed here. Consult your Registered Rep, RIA, or Financial Planner for an appropriate asset allocation model and the suitability of stocks and other holdings for you.

Stay safe!

-Sid Som

homequant@gmail.com

  

Post Pandemic, Congress should Introduce Universal Basic Income (UBI)

Under a Universal Basic Income (UBI) plan, the federal government will pay a monthly stipend to each adult citizen irrespective of their needs or circumstances. The growth of Artificial Intelligence and Robotics has prompted many Silicon Valley leaders and other celebrities to raise UBI's issue as a countermeasure to this emerging threat to the American labor force. Former presidential candidate Andrew Yang even made the UBI the centerpiece of his campaign, labeling it a 'Freedom Dividend.' Here are some of the apparent reasons why Congress should seriously look into it:

1. The UBI plan will incentivize early Retirement – Though the eligible people can activate Social Security at age 62 and retire, the vast majority of them are unwilling to do so due to the reduced qualifying income. Since the UBI plan will not interfere with the social security income, those willing-to-retire-early folks would welcome this supplemental income and seriously consider the move. 

2. The UBI plan will Create a new generation of young Entrepreneurs – Millions of young people, especially college students, have forward-looking business ideas. Still, they generally go nowhere with their brilliant ideas as they lack the start-up capital. The UBI plan will empower them to move forward with their ideas, knowing that this is not a one-off stimulus. The perennial monthly UBI (could be higher over time with adjustments for CLI) would allow them to allocate a portion of their business income while taking on fewer student loans, reducing the usual mental and financial stress. 

3. The UBI plan will turn Stay-at-home moms into a new generation of Home-based Entrepreneurs – Stay-at-home moms would be one of the program's big beneficiaries. Most of them have the time but not the capital to invest in bringing their entrepreneurial dreams to reality. Now, with the new-found capital, their lives would be financially lifted to the next level. Since women tend to be better money managers, they would better allocate the money between family and business, adding a whole new dimension to the economy.   

4. The UBI plan will do yeoman's service to Inner City Youths – The inner-city youths in America are severely deprived of essential economic opportunities, resulting in higher drop-outs from high schools. The UBI plan would entice them to stay in schools, opt for college education, and compete more effectively. Minority youths, especially African-American youths, would see the leveling of the playing field. In no time, the enterprising youths would pool their resources together and take the entrepreneurial plunge, pulling their neighborhoods and communities out of poverty. 

5. The UBI plan will immensely help seniors currently living off Social Security incomes only – Today, millions of seniors live off social security incomes only, which sometimes are below the national poverty level, despite having worked and paid taxes all their working lives. It would be the saving grace for those seniors living month-to-month off the social security incomes. Using a typical proposal of $1,000/mo., the additional $2,000/mo. (for two seniors) would lift them out of the poverty threshold. 

The new $10K SALT cap has been hurting the rich folks in high tax states. Therefore, the government should offer a deal whereby those rich folks would give up the monthly UBI in exchange for a correspondingly higher SALT cap. Right now, the cap has been severely impacting specific housing markets, making them very illiquid. The higher SALT cap could make those housing markets a bit more liquid.

Again, the UBI is a plan to fend off poverty and unprecedented calamities. The merits are numerous and multi-faceted. It helps the poor. It helps the middle class. It even helps the rich in specific scenarios. Last but not least, it would be growth-financed without having to tax and spend.

Stay safe!

-Sid Som

homequant@gmail.com