Analyzing Coronavirus Stats of Hardest-hit (Top-10) Countries

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Total Cases -- The worldwide total has exceeded 594K (as of this writing at 8pm ET). While the US has already eclipsed China, it is too early to compare the US stats with China's or even Italy and Spain's, the two hardest-hit European countries thus far. Sadly, Italy has surpassed the Chinese total today and Spain, at this current rate, will do so in about a week or so. While China's incremental cases have flatlined in March, Italy and Spain's have been moving up exponentially since March 5 and March 12, respectively. Despite being the 11th hardest-hit country, the Netherlands has been added on to the above list to demonstrate that it may soon displace South Korea from the major-10 list. 

Deaths -- China's death rate (4.05%) has remained in alignment with the worldwide average of 4.58%. About a month ago, WHO announced a revised death rate of 3.40%, which is expected to be further revised up shortly to reflect the reality on the ground. Italy's death rate of 10.56% is simply heart-breaking. Spain's rate has been on the upswing at 7.82%, topping Iran's 7.35%.

Recovery -- Considering it's a global pandemic with an asymmetric outbreak, it's too early to talk about a stable worldwide average recovery rate, even continental averages. While the current worldwide average is 22.32%, China's 92% rate is just awe-inspiring. On the other hand, Italy, Spain, Germany and France, the four European countries with at least 30K cases, have been registering very low recovery rates -- mostly in low to mid-teens. 

Active Cases -- Out of the 434K active cases globally, China's total has fallen to a mere 3,460 (or 4.25% of their total cases), some of which might have been imported (at least, that's what China claims). Italy and Spain are confronted with roughly 80% active cases. 

Given the mounting new cases everyday, high death and low recovery rates, Italy and Spain need immediate military help from other countries, especially from militarily-strong countries like India, Russia and China. Meanwhile, it's however heart-warming to see that Russia has already sent a team of doctors and medical supplies to Italy. 

Data Source: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ 


-Sid Som
homequant@gmail.com