Coronavirus Outbreak – How the Midwestern States are Faring!

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Highlights...

1. Though Michigan experienced an early outbreak, the general surge in the Midwest has been more recent. Therefore, the state-wise case totals are far lower than their East coast counterparts. For instance, Illinois, the most populous state in the region, has a current caseload of 83K vis-a-vis NY and NJ's 349K and 142K, respectively.      

2. Since the early outbreak was in Michigan, its death tolls are the highest among the Midwestern states. In fact, its death rate of 9.7% is currently the highest in the nation. Expectedly, its normalized (per million population) death rate is also the highest in the region. In that respect, Ohio, the second most populous state in the region, has been doing better than Illinois and Michigan.

3. The reason Ohio has done better thus far results from the lower positive rate of 12%, as compared to Illinois' 17.6% and Michigan's 15.1%. Even Indiana has a very high positivity of 16.7%. The polarized positive rates of Nebraska (17.9%) and North Dakota (3.3%) are, however, baffling, although they have managed to maintain low death rates.

4. In line with the high positivity, IL, IN and NE have high active caseloads as well. Minnesota (MN) and Dakota's have done an excellent job in managing their caseloads. MI has been proactive as well. 

5. In terms of the total tests administered, North Dakota with a normalized rate of 62K exceeds the national average of 30K. Ohio, Missouri and Kansas are way behind the curve with an average of 18K/each. In order to keep death rates and caseloads low, all of the Midwestern states should be targeting North Dakota's proactive testing average of 60K as the early detection is the key, until a vaccine becomes a reality.

Stay safe!

Data Source: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

-Sid Som
homequant@gmail.com