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Highlights...
1. Compared to the outbreaks in other hard-hit European countries, the Russian outbreak was a bit belated. But between 4/1 and 5/13, Russia saw an astronomical 8600% increase in the number of cases (top graph), from a mere 2,777 to a whopping 242,271 cases. In May alone, the number of cases more than doubled.
2. The outbreak-related death toll has been even worse. During the same period, the death toll skyrocketed from 24 to 2,212 -- a heart-breaking 9100% escalation. The slope has been identical (not shown), with the exact same r-squared.
3. While the current trend for incoming cases is not a perfect exponential (blue trendline) one yet, the slope has already graduated above the linear trend (green trendline), and is incrementally bending backwards, as evidenced by the higher r-squared value.
4. Unfortunately, the regression relationship (bottom graph) between the two data sets is a perfect linear one. In other words, they are moving in lockstep. Since the most recent data trend has been more exponential than linear, the death rate is expected to climb in the near future, unless the curve is quickly flattened by means of more serious mitigation techniques.
5. Although Russia's current death rate is still very low (1%) as compared to its neighbors (average 10%), its recovery rate thus far has also been abysmally low while the critically-ill population percent remains very high, causing a more serious situation.
Russia is sitting on a ticking time bomb. It has to get back to square one, meaning returning to total lockdown along with a more meaningful mitigation model. Instead of paying too much attention to its 1% oligarchs, it needs to pay immediate attention to its 99% before it's a day too late!
Also, Russia should immediately talk to our great scientists at the CDC for an alternative mitigation model.
Stay safe!
Data Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic_in_Russia
-Sid Som
homequant@gmail.com
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