Maryland -- The Maryland chart shows the death trend has yet to taper. In fact, today's deaths equaled the prior high that occurred on 4/25. The 3-day moving average remains on an upward trajectory, while the linear trendline is upward sloping as well, indicating that the overall trend is not what we would like to see at this point. This also makes the case that Governor Hogan must be extremely careful in relaxing the (social) restrictions.
Massachusetts -- While the Massachusetts chart is a little better than the Maryland chart, it still shows a high level of volatility. The 3-day moving average has flattened but the linear trendline remains upward sloping, indicating the continuation of the elevated risk level. On the other hand, when the spike that occurred on 4/29 (which could be a reporting anomaly) is redistributed, the linear trend steepens and the r-squared value rises. Governor Baker should therefore be careful in loosening the restrictions too quickly.
New Jersey -- In terms of the existing risk, the New Jersey chart, unfortunately, is the worst one. While the linear trendline is not as steep as the other two, the 3-day moving average shows a high-risk 'W' formation, with the send leg (mode) higher than the prior one. Of course, the linear trendline gets worse when the three recent spikes are smoothed (redistributed). Obviously, Governor Murphy must be thoughtful in unwinding the restrictions to avoid having to deal with a follow-up outbreak.
Stay safe!
Data Sources:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic_in_Maryland
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic_in_Massachusetts
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic_in_New_Jersey
-Sid Som
homequant@gmail.com
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