After having devastated the Northeastern and Mid-Atlantic states, the outbreak has been gradually southbound along the I-95 corridor, currently tormenting (southern Virginia and) North Carolina where new cases are rapidly surging.
Since each new peak in North Carolina has eclipsed the prior one, the trend has been woefully upsloping. Even today (6/16), it has reported 28 confirmed deaths.
Highlights...
1. Between 4/1 and 6/15, the total cases grew from 1,584 to 45,102 -- a whopping 2,750% escalation. In fact, the monthly averages flesh out the surge even more accurately: While the monthly cases averaged 300 and 583 in April and May, respectively, the average thus far in June has almost doubled to 1,101. If this trend continues, the current average can easily double in July.
2. Though the daily cases in April and May had trended more or less in a linear mode, it has tilted backward to a steeper polynomial trend in June. The slope of the trendline is so fast and furious that it can develop into a solid exponential trend later this month or in early July. Even the smoothed 7-day moving average is confirming the upsloping non-linear trend.
3. While the daily death toll (bottom graph) tapered off in late May, it has reversed course and started moving up as of early June, causing serious confusions and concerns among public health professionals as they expected a continued taper with the rising temperature, leading to a complete taper in the summer months.
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| (Click on the image to enlarge) |
4. Despite the beginning of the rapid surge, North Carolina has one of the lowest death rates in all of East Coast. The hardest-hit states in the Northeast have endured threefold higher death rates. Likewise, the states like Georgia and Virginia where the surge is still on-going have active case rates of 90% and 84%, respectively, while North Carolina has kept it at a very manageable 34%.
5. North Carolina, like Georgia and Virginia, has fallen far behind the Northeastern states in per capita testing. While those states have been consistently registering above 100K, North Carolina has been struggling in the low 60K range.
Given a large immigrant and minority population, it needs to significantly improve its testing credentials before a more horrific second wave takes over.
Stay safe!
Data Sources:
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic_in_North_Carolina
-Sid Som
homequant@gmail.com
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