Florida had a resurgence in May, but it peaked and tapered in late May, under the assumption that the rising heat helped contain the spread. Unfortunately, that assumption has turned out to be false, resulting in a more serious resurgence, if not the beginning of a second wave.
Highlights...
1. In April-May, the daily cases averaged at 810, resurging exponentially in June and spiking the average up to 1,411. In the last five days, the average has further jumped to 1,991.
2. The 7-day moving average trendline in June thus far looks genuinely worrisome. The recent highs far exceed the prior peaks in April and May, raising serious concerns for the public health professionals, considering that most beaches are already open and the theme parks are not far behind.
3. Unfortunately, the daily death tolls have not subsided either. Given that hospitals are much better equipped today to handle serious and critical cases than what it was at the onset of the outbreak, it was widely expected that the death toll would come down fast. But the stats are not confirming that expectation. In fact, the daily tolls averaged at 38 in April-May, while it rose to 43 in the last five days.
4. The 7-day moving average trendline of daily death tolls in June is clearly upsloping, confirming that the death tolls are moving up, rather than going down. Of course, the only silver lining in this resurgence is that the growth angle of the daily cases is still steeper than the growth angle of the daily tolls.
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5. Though Florida has lower death and positivity rates than most Northeastern states, it lags far behind them in testing. Given its population demographic, it's a serious concern. At 77%, it has one of the highest active rates in the region and significantly above the national average of 54%.
Politics aside, Florida needs to get its act together before the resurgence turns into a deadly second wave.
Stay safe!
Data Sources:
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic_in_Florida
-Sid Som
homequant@gmail.com
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