Since Saudi Arabia is the home to the Islamic holy cities of Mecca and Medina, it attracts over 15M pilgrims (Hajj) each year and the number has grown over the years with the growth of the Muslim population worldwide. Given its responsibility as the host to the pilgrims, it has to deal with a very different set of tourism logistics than its neighboring countries.
In my last analysis of the outbreak in Saudi Arabia on 5/31, I indicated that it had peaked. Unfortunately, instead of tapering, it has been faced with a back-to-back second wave with more serious and faster growth in the number of daily cases as well as deaths.
Highlights...
1. On 5/31, Saudi Arabia had a total caseload of 85,261 and 503 deaths. Today (6/8), the caseload and death tolls have grown to 105,283 and 746, respectively, prompting a re-imposition of curfew in Jeddah, the epicenter of the country's outbreak.
2. Between 5/28 and 5/31, the number of daily cases averaged at 1,680, however spiking to an average of 3,032 in the last four days. Likewise, during the same period, the average daily deaths have jumped from 20 to 34.
3. The graph showing the daily cases clearly depicts the resurgence of the back-to-back second wave. After having peaked around 5/20 and tapering on 5/27, the curve immediately reversed course and started trending up, fiercely eclipsing the prior peak. The graph showing the daily deaths reveals an even steeper upslope.
4. Though Saudi Arabia has a very low death rate, it has a high positivity rate at 11%. Considering that it is one of the richest nations in the region, it has a fairly poor per capita testing record at 28K, whereas its neighbor UAE boasts a record at 253K.
5. What concerns the world health community is the emergence of the second wave when the average daily temperature in Saudi Arabia ranges between 110 and 115 degrees (F). If it fails to significantly increase its testing credentials now, the cooler season could pose a more serious threat.
Stay safe!
Data Sources:
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic_in_Saudi_Arabia
-Sid Som
homequant@gmail.com
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