Coronavirus Pandemic – A Powerful Resurgence is Tormenting Florida

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The resurgence of the outbreak in Florida that started in mid-June has grown into a full-blown explosion by early July, forcing re-closing of bars, restaurants, and other retail establishments. Some counties in southern Florida are facing curfews, meaning gatherings of ten or more are prohibited. 

The assumption that the rising heat would help contain the spread of the virus in Florida has turned out to be false, as the mid-day temperatures are consistently hitting the low-to-mid 90's every day.  

Highlights...

1. In May, the daily cases averaged at 725, surging exponentially to 3,209 in June and tripling to 10,398 in July. The highest number of cases were recorded on 7/12 at 15,300 while the daily cases exceeded 10K in nine out of the last ten days.

2. The 5-day moving average trendline in July thus far looks genuinely worrisome. The recent highs far exceed the prior peaks in May and June, raising serious concerns for the public health professionals, considering that most beaches, theme parks and indoor entertainment centers are already open. Shockingly, amid these skyrocketing daily cases, Disney World opened on 7/11, while it remained closed in May-June when the cases were flat-lining. 

3. Unfortunately, the daily death tolls have not subsided either. Though the hospitals are much better equipped today to handle serious and critical cases than they were at the onset of the outbreak, it was, therefore, widely expected that the death toll would come down fast. But the stats are not confirming that expectation. The daily toll averaged at 35 in June, while it more than doubled to 79 in July. In the last seven days the average jumped to an eye-popping 114.

4. The 5-day moving average trendline of daily death tolls in July is dreadfully upsloping, confirming that the death tolls are rapidly rising, rather than going sideways as was the case during May-June. Of course, the only silver lining in this resurgence is that the growth angle of the daily cases is more expansive than the growth angle of the daily deaths.  

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5. Though Florida has one of the lowest death rates in the country, its positivity rate has been climbing, causing serious concern for the hospital system. Also, given its population demographic, the rising positivity rate is a double whammy. At 88%, it has the highest active rate in the Sunbelt, closely followed by Arizona, and remains significantly above the national average of 50%. Fortunately, its testing credentials have been getting better. 

Politics aside, Florida needs to get its act together before the resurgence turns into a deadly second wave. 
Stay safe!

Data Sources:
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic_in_Florida


-Sid Som
homequant@gmail.com

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