Coronavirus Outbreak – the Sunbelt Faces a Powerful 2nd Surge

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A powerful second surge has been sweeping through the Sunbelt since mid-May. Arizona, California, Florida, Georgia and Texas have been registering record-breaking daily cases, pushing the daily US totals above 50K. Today (7/2), the total cases in the US hit the highest ever at 57K, buoyed by Florida's first-ever 10K, followed by California's 9.3K and Texas' 7.5K.

Highlights...

1. In the last five days alone, the total number of cases nationally jumped 10%. While the total escalation, since the beginning of the surge on 6/15, has been 30%, Florida has registered a whopping 120% surge, along with a rising death toll of 25%. Los Angeles County in California has also been registering significant surges in both categories. 

2. While the US daily average jumped from 23,000 in May to 27,000 in June, it has jumped to 35,500 since 6/15 alone. The graph depicting the daily cases makes an emphatic case. The 7-day moving average trendline confirms the rapid surge as well.

3. Of course, the regression graph of total deaths to total cases is somewhat comforting. While the death rate exceeded the case rate at the middle of the curve (meaning between 1.6M and 2.2M cases), it has tapered significantly during the recent surge. The optimal fit is, therefore, logarithmic, rather than exponential or even linear. The high r-squared value backs up the fit.

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4. Though the US accounts for 26% of the world's cases and 25% of all deaths so far, the overall death rate, despite the surge, has been steadily declining. Of course, due to the on-going surge, the active case rate has been on the rise again. While the per capita testing credentials have inched up, the pace has been less than stellar; for instance, Russia and the UK have been doing a much better job than the US. The positivity rate has been holding steady at around 8%.

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5. Fortunately, the surge in the Sunbelt has not spiked the death rates. In fact, the death rates in Northeast have still been significantly higher than those of the surging states; Georgia's death rate of 3.2% has been the highest among these states.

Unfortunately, the surge has elevated the active case rate, which is quite concerning. If the criticality of the cases starts to rise, it will start putting significant pressure on hospitals, especially ICUs, as was the case at the height of the outbreak in New York and New Jersey. 

The silver lining has been the increased testing and the moderate positivity rates thus far. Texas, however, needs to intensify testing to isolate the moderate cases from the serious ones to avoid having to end up in the same situation that New York was in at its peak.

Stay safe!

Data Sources:
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic_in_the_United_States

-Sid Som
homequant@gmail.com